I plan to upload all my high level research over the next few months however wanted to get my market predictions out first

Inflation is a hot topic at the moment but it’s always been there eroding your cash savings away. This is from 1976 - what could you get at your local take away today for 21c? Invest in assets my friends!

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This will allow you to hedge by DCAing into BTC at still attractive prices while minimizing potential losses if a bull trap is confirmed which will then allow you to buy back at significantly lower prices

Take advantage of pull backs within your buying range but be aware of key areas of support. Set up staggered buy orders (leaving some dry powder) at price increments (e.g. $20.5k, $20k, $19.5k etc.) with stop losses at the $19.3k level

Crypto: The volatility base and volumes of the recent BTC rally should sustain it for several weeks however any shakiness in equities could destabilize it. A close below $19.3k will confirm a bull trap with a return to the cycle lows (as a minimum) and lower lows likely $12-$14k

This will allow you to lower your cost base and increase your returns when the macro environment supports a more sustained recovery through 2024 and returns to risk-on in 2025/26

Take advantage of any dips (most likely in Q1/Q2) in stocks you already like at the current price. Set up staggered buy orders at areas of support or simply at draw down increments (e.g. -5%, -10%, -15% etc.) to get your favorite stocks at discounted prices

Stocks: Sentiment is fragile in an uncertain macro environment which could quickly rug any recovery. The market is still closely following any data that could impact interest rate and money printing decisions and the next few earnings sessions could disappoint the jumpy markets

This will protect your equity if prices fall further and put you in a strong position to profit from the fastest period of cycle growth coming in 2025/26

Take advantage of this by offering 10%-15% below market value to motivated sellers. Target developers looking to exit the site or needing to sell quickly. Push for them to throw in free extras e.g. furniture pack, flooring, legals, valuations, paid fees/taxes

Property: House prices will likely fall by <5% in 2023 however the newspaper headlines and sentiment will make it feel much worse. Inflation and interest rates will remain high putting pressure on build costs and developer refinancing

A recession is widely expected in 2023 which could see lower prices across property, stocks and crypto. Lower prices create buying opportunities but how can you capitalize on these while managing downside risk? 🧵👇

Asset allocation and portfolio strategy are key to managing the volatility and magnitude of returns. Some key principles are explained below, all of which have a trade-off and should be balanced to fit your personal investing goals

Once we have determined where we are in the economic cycle, we can position our investments to maximize gains/minimize losses in the next phase and stay one step ahead

Financial markets move in cycles of ~18 years typically with 14 growth/up years and 4 decline/down years. Understanding this cycle, and the signs to help identify where we are in it, are crucial to managing portfolio risk and positioning investments and sizing for the next phase