Ruohan Chen
@RuohanDeQuant
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My @coinbase Q3 Revenue Prediction: Me: 1.687B Wall Street: 1.77B Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice, but here’s how I did it  https://t.co/JbygqSE5iD
medium.com
Using onchain data to predict Coinbase’s Q3 revenue
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Got invited to my high school to do a talk, and decided to give free alpha by explaining why blockchain.
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I’d fade finals for mbc every time
weekend @MBC_Conference > finals Huge thank you to @collegexyz_ for an epic weekend. See you next year🚀
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Night shift. HUGE shoutout to the @VandyBlockchain squad for being lifesavers and to @NiketKamat for facilitating all merch shipments. If your company sent merch to MBC, find Niket tmrw and thank him 🐐 GN. Catch yall tmrw
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2026 internship applications are now open. If you want hands-on experience in the future of finance, this is your entry point. Here’s what to expect and a few highlights from 2025.
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Q3 Revenue: 1.869B, The main sources of error came from being 4% off in retail to institutional percentage, and being off in both retail and institutional take rates. These figures are rather difficult to find and require assumptions which I honestly butchered oops.
My @coinbase Q3 Revenue Prediction: Me: 1.687B Wall Street: 1.77B Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice, but here’s how I did it  https://t.co/JbygqSE5iD
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🫡 🫡 🫡
Vanderbilt has put itself on the map as one of the top blockchain clubs, with alumni spanning across Coinbase, Galaxy, Artemis, and much more! @VandyBlockchain recruited over 60 members in the fall and they aim to bring 40 members to MBC on December Dec 5-6th! Insane numbers.
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Lastly, let me know if you want to see the calculations behind my prediction, or comment if any part of the report seem unreasonable.
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Also, shoutout to @kevinlhr88 for writing a very comprehensive Q2 revenue report, which inspired/reversed engineered a few of my methods. His report can be found here:
research.artemisanalytics.com
Our analyst Kevin Li estimates Coinbase’s Q2 revenue at $1.495 billion which is -6.2% vs. the Street estimate of $1.594 billion, using publicly available blockchain data.
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Again this is not financial advice, but in addition to puts, you can trade under on https://t.co/fTW8XP0hsU and https://t.co/IUq4lbheQP. Note that revenue doesn’t directly translate into earnings.
kalshi.com
Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Coinbase volume in Q3 2025?", or trade it yourself.
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Significant increase in other sources of revenue: I estimated a significant increase in Base fee revenue, Blockchain Rewards (staking), and other subscription and services revenue (23.1%, 30.9%, 15% respectively). This is likely from the bull market this quarter.
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Trading volume from institutional transactions: Due to the prevalence in Digital Asset Treasuries, I estimated a higher proportion of institutional to retail trading volume (up 2% QoQ). Note that roughly 40% of Coinbase’s revenue comes from retail trading making this significant
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Using a mix of onchain data and past trend, I predicted Coinbase Q3 revenue at 1.687 billion (up ~12.7% qoq) compared to Wall Street’s 1.77 billion (~5% difference).
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This weekend I finished Coinbase’s report, ran a half marathon, rugged an ayce steakhouse and watched as Vandy took a dub against Mizzou. W weekend.
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Lastly, let me know if you want to see the calculations behind my prediction, or comment if any part of the report seem unreasonable.
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