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Rufybaba

@Rufyb

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Investment Management | Economics | Finance | Strategy | Tweets Catalogue in 'Highlights' Tab

Lagos, Nigeria
Joined August 2012
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
2 years
My track record in the Nigerian equities market: some of my big wins. I leverage information asymmetry in the market to capture significant gains. Most of the names here are not the typical names often covered by analysts. Meanwhile, I have an expansive set of data that captures
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
2 hours
Steady progress, but very much dissatisfied. ▪︎ Inflation is not comparable, so I am yanking that off. Not a like-for-like. But I'd take interest rate movements. ▪︎ Fiscal deficit is what matters, not revenues. ▪︎ Reserves are good, but they are not there for the sake
@DOlusegun
Daddy D.O🇳🇬
16 hours
Progress made so far under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu!
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
5 hours
Harvard omo werey!
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
6 hours
The YTD performance of some listed companies. The marked companies are in the top 10 among all the listed coys in the market.
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@libertynation
Liberty Nation
3 days
The sheer number of significant world leaders gathering shows how big a deal this is. Everybody wanted their name attached to it, creating an extraordinary scene.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
12 hours
Emerging market (EM) equities are expected to rally over the next 12 months, driven by earnings upgrades, demand for geographical diversification, and anticipated interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, along with a weaker dollar. The MSCI EM index has risen for nine
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
13 hours
https://t.co/5SWvVsUzmR Understanding Okomu's business...
@Rufyb
Rufybaba
3 months
I see that pension fund guys are loading up Okomu in a pair trade kinda form. In their heads, 'Presco is ₦1k+, Okomu should also follow suit'. Lol, I sense an 'anchor bias' here, because Okomu is now very pricy and significantly above historical multiples...
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
13 hours
Okomu Oil PLC Q3 2025 Performance... This coy will likely close FY 2025 at ₦80bn, and based on its current market value, the P/E is 15x. Sounds like a very fair valuation, in my view. Meanwhile, historical average P/E is like 10x.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
So unless the Land Use Act and state-level land administration are reformed, MREIF’s impact will likely be partial: it may help more people access mortgages, but not make houses fundamentally affordable.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
Singapore solved housing by locking land, finance, and housing policy into one system. Nigeria’s MOFI–MREIF model tries to fix the finance, but not yet the land, which is the biggest cost driver.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
I see and acknowledge the MREIF solution that is currently out there, but sadly, the problem has to be solved at its root causes. It is a subsidy, and there is a risk that it won't be sustainable for as long as housing cost drivers remain unchecked.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
☞ Social status signalling: Owning land in premium areas (Ikoyi, Lekki, etc.) is considered a status symbol.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
☞ Foreign currency pressure: landowners benchmark values in USD to hedge FX losses.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
☞ Inflation expectations: sellers adjust land prices upward in anticipation of future inflation.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
Non-structural factors are: ☞ Speculation & land banking: buying and holding land for capital gains rather than development. Limited supply pushes prices higher.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
Non-structural factors are cyclical or behavioural. They can be managed via market regulation, fiscal tools, or incentives.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
☞ Macroeconomic instability & inflation pass-through: Land being used as an inflation-hedge asset.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
☞ Weak property taxation: Since there is no effective holding cost for underdeveloped land, owners have no incentive to release it. Speculators can hoard land indefinitely.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
☞ Urban planning constraints: Too much concentration on certain areas. ☞ Infrastructure deficits: The costs of those infra gaps are passed on to buyers.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
Structural factors are: ☞ Land tenure & administration: Land Use Act palava, bureaucratic and expensive processes. ☞ Inefficient land titling: Uncertainties and risks of disputes inflate “safe” land prices.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
Structural factors are deep, systemic, and institutional. They require reforms to the Land Use Act, digitisation of the land registry, and comprehensive infrastructure planning.
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@Rufyb
Rufybaba
15 hours
And they started by making sure that the land component was tightly controlled. In Nigeria, the drivers of land costs can be segmented into structural and non-structural factors.
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