Robert Prechter
@RobertPrechter
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Here are some timeless tips on what you need to be a successful trader:
1. A method
2. The discipline to follow your method
3. Experience
4. The mental fortitude to accept the fact that losses are part of the game
5. The mental fortitude to accept huge gains
Happy trading!
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“[T]he bigger the mood change, the bigger the effect.” - Robert Prechter, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior. Learn more about how social mood motivates different types of social actions. Case in point, global warfare:
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An interviewer once asked
@RobertPrechter
: "Under the Wave Principle, what is the most important thing to watch other than price?" Prechter replied: "Volume." Learn why:
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“...the radical shifts in the Beatles’ fortunes followed quite precisely the radical shifts in the stock market’s fortunes.” - Robert Prechter - Learn more about how social mood regulates the popularity of stars:
#elliottwave
#socialmood
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“The Wave Principle describes financial markets because they move primarily on mass psychology.”
@RobertPrechter
#classicprechter
#ElliottWave
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"...action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves ... reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves" - Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter. Get free, instant access to this Wall Street classic:
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Kick off your 2023 trading with these key insights.
Full, free report available here:
#trading
#tradingtips
#tradersuccess
#invest
#investing
#investingtips
#stocks
#stockmarket
#Elliottwave
#daytrading
#swingtrading
#tradingmethod
#technicalanalysis
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Stocks & sex: “trends in conceptions significantly precede expansions & contractions in the economy… Most noticeably, lows in procreation coincide with stock market lows, not economic lows, which follow shortly thereafter” – Robert Prechter – Learn more:
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“[W]hile the stock market is like a thermometer with respect to public mood, it is like a barometer with respect to public action.” - Robert Prechter, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior -
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"Fig 16...stock prices seemingly benefited from peaceful times... Fig 17...in the 3 years immediately thereafter, peace likewise mostly reigned...yet stock prices fell more than they had risen in the preceding 8 years!" - The Socionomic Theory of Finance
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"Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave" - Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Principle. Get instant access to this Wall Street bestseller
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“Stock prices are a direct and sensitive record of changes in society’s feeling of self-worth.” – Robert Prechter
#socionomics
#classicprechter
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“Events that make history are the result of shared mental states that take time to reach the point of mass expression.” -
@RobertPrechter
#classicprechter
#elliottwave
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"Emotional Markets Produce the Clearest Wave Counts" - Learn more here >>
http://t.co/VCyty9Tc2R
http://t.co/kDGVxLMNkb
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5. 5. Mental Fortitude to Accept Huge Gains
...To win the game, make sure that you understand why you're in it. The big moves in markets only come once or twice a year...
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"The Wave Principle is a description of the dynamics of collective emotional change."
#ElliottWave
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Those are the ones which will pay you for all the work, fear, sweat and aggravation of the previous eleven months or even eleven years. Don't miss them for reasons other than those required by your objectively defined method.
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“Crowd psychology is impulsive, self-generating, self-sustaining and self-reversing."
#Socionomics
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"The market always gives warnings before it changes direction" -
@RobertPrechter
- Listen to Bob Prechter's presentation to
@IFTAWorldwide
where he dismantles the commonly held beliefs that many use to forecast the markets:
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"A trading method comes down to one thing: creating parameters for making decisions for entering and exiting markets."
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“The unconscious mind is not rational, but *it is not random, either.* It is patterned, and therefore, to a degree, predictable.”
#EWT
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“...For many people, the single biggest financial shock and surprise over the next decade will be the revelation that the Fed has never really known what on earth it was doing.” – Robert Prechter, Conquer the Crash - get your copy of the NYT bestseller:
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"A trading method comes down to one thing: creating parameters for making decisions for entering and exiting markets." - Robert Prechter
#elliottwave
#trading
#classicprechter
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1. A Method
I mean an objectively definable method. One that is thought out in its entirety to the extent that if someone asks you how you make your decisions, you can explain it to him, and if he asks you again in six months, he will receive the same answer.
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"Bear markets move fast...investors & traders who are prepared have greater opportunities on downside than on upside"
http://t.co/S3tyyGAEQN
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4. Mental Fortitude to Accept the Fact that Losses Are Part of the Game
There are many denials of reality which automatically disqualify millions of people from the joining the ranks of successful speculators...
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For most people, projecting higher prices in a topping market and falling prices in a bottoming market is nearly irresistible.
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For instance, to moan that 'pools,' 'manipulators,' 'insiders,' 'they,' 'the big boys' or 'program trading' are to blame for one's losses is a common fault. Anyone who utters such a conviction is doomed before he starts.
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The best way to understand the stock market is to see it as a reflection of fluctuating social mood.
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The
#market
is precise, not just a random walk, from day to day. Things are orderly, even in the panics.
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“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong!”-Joe Granville, one of the all-time great technicians. In memoriam
http://t.co/e0CGDaIUsH
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You could read every book on monetarist and Keynesian
#economics
, and you would never understand the primary importance of mass psychology.
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3. Experience
...You must conquer a host of issues, most of them related to your own inner strength in battling powerful human emotions, in order to trade real money successfully. The School of Hard Knocks is the only school that'll teach it to you, and the tuition is expensive.
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"If you’re not close to the markets, you’ll lose money. If you’re too close to the markets, you’ll lose money twice as fast."
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"Investors have no memory of prior mood extremes. They always forget how they felt...so they are free to feel the same way again and again."
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2. Discipline to Follow Your Method
This requirement is so widely understood by the true professionals that among them, it almost sounds like a cliche. But, it's such an important cliche that it cannot be ignored. Without discipline, you really have no method in the first place.
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"At best, news is the tardy recognition of forces that have already been at work for some time..."
R.N. Elliott
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The markets do operate in a cause and effect world. The cause, however, is not outside the market but within its participants.
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The stock market is a manifestation of naturally fluctuating social mood.
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In finance, hope is not a virtue. Hope at the wrong time is deadly.
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The
#market
appears crazy only if you expect it to be led by something other than social mood.
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Common sense, intuition and everyday notions eventually kill investors in financial markets, whereas thinking contrary to them often works.
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"Many [speak] as if making money by investing is easy. It's not. What's easy is *losing* money, which is exactly what most investors do."
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Market trends are driven by unconscious herding impulses, so financial prices go up and down without needing to make economic sense.
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You prepare for nightfall and the seasons of the year. Why not prepare for the future by learning the behavior of cycles? - RN Elliott
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"The stock market is an arena in which people non-rationally value their fellows’ prospects."
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The Fed isn't "buying" assets; it has nothing of value to trade. Monopoly privilege lets it create new cash accounts in exchange for debt.
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"The
#market
reflects quasi geometric forms and mathematical relationships over and over again."
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One of the little-appreciated results of rising interest rates will be to curtail dramatically the use of borrowed money for speculation.
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Investors think that the issuers of all the bonds they're buying will stay solvent and pay both interest and principle. We don't think so.
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"My best advice to the average investor is stop being an average investor. You cannot survive as an average investor."
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“The public starts buying stocks en masse just before the top, and they remain bullish during the early part of the downtrend.”
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Globally there's about $200 trillion worth of debt, and only 2% ($4 trillion) of it is rated AAA.
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Monetarists don’t take into account the psychology of human beings, the very factor that ruins their neat models.
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Excerpt from Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior
#ElliottWave
http://t.co/osC0fD9Cye
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"Despite all your knowledge and skill...absolutely nothing can prepare you fully for the ordeal of risking your own money in the market."
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"Put 100% of your effort into dealing with the markets, but don't expect to get 100% of your fulfillment from it..."
http://t.co/zJa5jDol6Y
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"Here's a surprise: When gold is not used as money, prices tend rise when the economy is expanding and fall when it is contracting."
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"The pressures of trading are enormous, and they get to everyone... If you are not disciplined, forget the markets."
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"Individuals can learn to act contrarily to impulses arising from social mood. Large groups cannot act independently of [these] impulses."
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“Elliott’s Wave Principle is for the social sciences as important a discovery as the first laws of the physical sciences.”
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Social mood is a shared mental disposition that arises in humans when they interact socially.
@socionomics
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The most thoughtless excuse for buying a financial market I’ve ever heard is the current mantra, 'There Is No Alternative' (TINA). 5/22/2013
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Most observers believe
#markets
follow the law of cause and effect and that the causes are outside the markets.
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One of the most useful observations from socionomic analysis is that negative social mood trends drive polarization of opinion in society.
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Few people think socionomically because conventional causality feels right but is wrong while socionomic causality feels wrong but is right.
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“History flows from the fact that human minds have an impulsive aspect that produces patterns of interactions.”
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The U.S. is in its weakest economic recovery on record. It is even more dramatically weak relative to the amount of central-bank inflating.
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'While illusions may be comfortable for most people in long bull markets, they provide monstrous stress in bear markets.'
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In markets, momentum and sentiment are important. But only the degree of the wave tells you their probable limits.
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“Many an opportunity has been lost waiting for one last rally or decline.”
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Some say Congress makes laws to help banks, or corn growers. But that's a side effect. Politicians make laws to benefit supporters.
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When authorities fear
#deflation
, they don’t want you to hold cash. They want you to prop up debt via a bank account or money fund. -RP
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#Bond
decline "baffles" analysts says
@nytbusiness
http://t.co/BNfN5MKJjd.
See our year-ago June 2012 forecast:
http://t.co/6YNnczay1P
-RP
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Reverence for authority figures seems to be regulated in the unconscious, so one can hardly blame people for doing it without thinking.
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'Financial markets are a quintessential example of systems whose results feed back into the system as a new cause.'
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Total student debt is nearly $1 trillion, via programs promoted and backed by gov't. This kind of approach led to the real estate bubble.
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“Aside from emotional reactions lasting just minutes, news does not cause the market to move in any meaningful sense.”
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"A panic is an emotional problem, not an Elliott problem. The Wave Principle simply warns the investor of impending changes of trend..."
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"The higher the degree of the wave that is ending, the more extreme will be the expression of social mood that produced it."
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"There is no free lunch. The Fed makes new dollars, but backs many of them with bad debt. No one can thwart the economic ecology forever."
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"To measure mass psychology, the action of the composite mind must be expressed in figures and plotted on a chart." - RN Elliott
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"Owning an array of investments is financial *suicide* during deflation. They all go down, and getting out of them can be a nightmare."
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"To think and act objectively in the markets, you must pit your reason and knowledge against your deeply inbred emotional tendencies."
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“If you are safety minded, a strong consensus doesn’t mean you invest in the opposite way. It means you avoid investing with the consensus."
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"Diversification for its own sake means you don't know what you're doing... you might as well hold Treasury bills or a savings account."
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"Evidence is rapidly mounting that the trend in interest rates on high-grade debt is poised to reverse." -RP 6/6/2012
#bonds
#treasuries
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"Like manias, amphetamine abusers perform abnormally well for a while...until they crash."
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"We hear from many quarters - both from bulls and bears - that 'this time it's different.' Time will tell."
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"The credit expansion... fostered by worldwide central banking is the greatest ever. The bust, however long it takes, will be commensurate."
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"In a great number of situations, hoping and herding can contribute to your well-being. Not in financial markets."
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#SocialMood13
The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective
http://t.co/6XKYfRgGoR
via
@SSRN
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"Crowd behavior is rooted in psychology, which has its own pace of development regardless of whether communication speed has increased."
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