Commander of Kurdish forces in
#Syria
to US official:
"I need to know if u are capable of protecting my people, stopping these bombs falling on us or not... If not, I need to make a deal w/Russia & regime now & invite their planes to protect this region”
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, for whom my wife Caroline clerked & who married us 25 years ago, was an extraordinary trailblazer, a fighter and an inspiration
Our thoughts are with her family and all those she lifted. RIP
#rbg
My first in-person meeting with my dear friend
@MichaelKovrig
since he was released from his wrongful detention in China. So good to see him healthy, strong - and free!
When the Trump admin took office, Iran had ~102kg of enriched uranium.
That stockpile is now nearly 2.5 tons.
Maximum pressure is a success in the same universe in which the administration is now preparing for a 2d term
Was huge honor to work w/amazing
@CrisisGroup
colleagues for 2 decades defending victims of conflict. Miss them already!
But look forward to working w/
@ABlinken
& many others to get back to the work of diplomacy
So grateful to so many for your support
Powerful piece.
"Osama bin Laden’s strategic logic was to embroil the United States in a never-ending conflict. ..Why are we continuing to do what Bin Laden wanted all along?"
For those who have followed the Iranian nuclear file, there is nothing new in Bibi's presentation. All it does is vindicate need for the nuclear deal
But the Israeli prime minister has an audience of one: Trump
And he's unfortunately unlikely to reach the same conclusion.
Things that help prevent a nuclear weapon: Limiting enrichment, reducing centrifuges, international inspections.
Things that do not help prevent a nuclear weapon: Leaving an agreement that did all those things, Twitter quotes in bold font.
"I fear the Israeli plan here is to provoke an Iranian response that can turn into a military escalation while Trump remains in office", a European intelligence official tells
@BusinessInsider
. A brief thread on a dangerous game of poker:
Forty years ago, I graduated from high school with
@ABlinken
It’s not only his looks that have barely changed. He was warm, compassionate, empathetic then, as he is now.
So happy for him & his wonderful family
So happy for us all.
Not privy to intel, but officials seem to be walking back claim of imminent attack
Plus as I told
@washingtonpost
, “If the attack was going to take place when Soleimani was alive, it’s difficult to comprehend why it wouldn’t now that he’s dead”
Brett McGurk, the US envoy for the global coalition to counter ISIS, has resigned because of Trump's decision to pull forces out of Syria, official says
" The International Crisis Group, an organization that provides early warnings to countries in danger of falling into violent conflict, never expected to issue alerts about the US. But early this summer, the ICG did just that".
Today is Michael's 48th birthday. He is spending it behind bars, for no reason other than he's a Canadian citizen, a pawn in a broader tug-of-war
He should be released & reunited w/his loved ones
Happy birthday Michael, all your colleagues at
@CrisisGroup
are thinking of you.
Imagine being locked up in a Chinese prison for 420 days.
You cannot see your family.
No justifiable reason has been given.
That is what our Canadian friend and colleague Michael Kovrig is facing.
#FreeMichaelKovrig
.
Fascinating meeting with Tanzanian opposition figure
@tundu_lissu
For someone who was shot over a dozen times, remarkable optimism, resilience and courage !
“Controlling the virus would not be a favour to the Iranian government, but to Iranians themselves – and indeed, to the rest of the world.”
Important read by
@AzadehMoaveni
&
@sussantweets
« It is time to finally end the chapter of our history that began on September 11, 2001.”
Important piece by
@brhodes
on the warped priorities that emerged from 9/11 and the need for a profound rethink
1/ A day for which so many of us have been waiting for so long - no words to express my joy
Thank you to the Canadian government for bringing Michael home
To all my dear
@CrisisGroup
friends who never gave up
Justice Ginsburg issued many historic rulings over her lifetime
For me, this one - 26 years ago today — was the most historic of all
Happy anniversary from Vienna, Caroline !
Sanctions policy was supposed to bring Iran to the table or the regime to its knees
It failed
The administration’s apparent response: to double down on that failed policy
& in the process to run the risk of escalation or seeing Iran walk away from the nuclear deal
« Every single European government believes that the increased threat we’re seeing from Iran now is a reaction to the United States leaving the Iran nuclear agreement and trying to force Iranian capitulation on other issues. »
It’s only a 1st step & every day they continue to be robbed of their freedom is a day too many
But for Siamak, Morad, Emad, two others released from prison, &their loved ones, this is welcome news too long in coming
I know my colleagues won’t rest until they all return home.
Iraqi militia trying to shift attention from popular demonstrations
Iran trying to shift attention from domestic unrest
US trying to shift attention from utter failure of its Iran policy
This is the predictable and dangerous result
There’s no quick or easy way to end
#Yemen
's civil war but there are many ways to prolong it
One of those is the Trump administration’s apparent decision to designate the Houthi movement as terrorists.
@peterjsalisbury
& my piece for
@washingtonpost
“We’ve removed a president without exiling him (as in Tunisia). Without imprisoning him (as in Egypt). And without killing him (as in Libya). And nobody has been killed. There’s nothing similar in the Arab world.”
Another step by the Trump administration that will prompt Iran to expand its nuclear program.
Apparently the administration will stop at nothing to undo
@BarackObama
's legacy, even if it means undermining their own self-proclaimed objective
When I travel, there is no question I get asked more often about
@BarackObama
's presidency than why he decided not to strike
#Syria
Now
@brhodes
lifts the curtain
Well with the read
Maximum pressure on Venezuela.
On North Korea
On Iran
On the Palestinians
A similar assumption in all cases: that by squeezing hard and dangling the promise of a bright economic future, US demands will be met
A similar outcome as well: it doesn’t work
Today, I walked 5k - a distance our colleague Michael Kovrig paces every day in his Chinese prison cell
He has been held there unjustly for 2 years
He needs to come home.
#FreeMichaelKovrig
40 years ago today, my father, a journalist, was expelled from France because of his views
He was a man of strong conviction, who sparked even stronger controversy
Journalists across the globe face far greater risks for doing their job. They deserve admiration & protection
Today my wife and I walked 5km again today in solidarity w/
@crisisgroup
friend & colleague Michael Kovrig.
Michael paces that distance each day in captivity.
This week marks two years of his unjust detention by China.
#freeMichaelKovrig
The Trump administration has been working hard to make as many of its foreign policy steps as difficult to reverse as possible
It has another 70 days to wreak more havoc. In Trump-time, that’s an eternity
My latest w/Phil Gordon for
@nytimes
The 1st foreign-policy test of would-be Biden presidency could come well before a single vote has been cast
Phil Gordon & I discuss why the position he takes on Israel's annexation of West Bank territory & steps he says he would take in response matter
Excited at prospect of working with most dedicated team one can imagine, honored to be following in footsteps of Gareth Evans,
@louise_arbour
and
@JGuehenno
, and convinced - alas - that spread of deadly conflict means
@CrisisGroup
's mission more vital than ever.
1/ Deeply disturbing if accurate:
"Most of the State Department’s military & area specialists urged Mr. Pompeo to reject certification “due to a lack of progress on mitigating civilian casualties.”
@SecPompeo
reportedly disagreed for commercial reasons
How true from
@khalafroula
:
"The recurring mistake of western pol establishments has been to confuse youth w/a commitment for change & assume young rulers who travel abroad, show interest in art & the digital world are likely to act responsibly".
Can’t think of a better choice than Maher. The most professional, principled, dedicated public servant I’ve had the honor to work with, a wonderful colleague, and a dear friend .
Not quite the graduation we expected
But everything we could possibly have dreamed of in a son - and more
Congratulations Blaise for graduating and entering a new, exciting chapter of your life!
Celebrating 25 years since Ruth Bader Ginsberg was sworn in as a Supreme Court Justice.
#rbg
And 23 years since our wedding, at which she officiated.
Both going strong!
If Kushner believes that the Palestinian people are
1. frustrated with President Abbas because he is too hardline and
2. more interested in economic improvement than in a political solution
then he is even more out of touch with Palestinian realities than I feared.
It's that time of the year again -- here are our Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2020.
Always a very hard list to come up with, and as usual we unfortunately were spoiled for choice. Waiting for the day when we will be unable to come up with 10...
👇
1/ Extremely powerful editorial by
@nytimes
on
#yemen
.
The bottom line:
"The horror in Yemen has gone way past any discussion of who’s right and who’s wrong, and it has become clear that only a negotiated peace agreement can bring the killings to an end..."
“We should not be associated with a bombing campaign that the UN tells us is likely a gross violation of human rights.”
@ChrisMurphyCT
on today’s Senate vote on
#yemen
Phil Gordon's & my latest piece on
#Iran
.
Our conclusion: "By imposing comprehensive sanctions that will only be lifted if Iran does everything the United States wants, the administration is likely ensuring that Iran will do nothing it wants."
Desperation & violence in Gaza, lack of hope in West Bank, widespread feeling among Palestinians that the world has ceased to care, risks provoking type of conflagration about which so many will say, after the fact – why didn’t we see it coming? And why didn’t we do anything?
How everything from Yemen to Saudi Arabia to Iran to Lebanon to Israel is interconnected -- and why that's hardly a good omen. Our
@CrisisGroup
analysts from around the region explain.
“The International Crisis Group, whose mission is to sound an alarm ahead of deadly conflicts in hot spots around the globe, last month turned its attention for the first time to possible election-related violence in the United States.”
Trump’s decision is microcosm of much that’s wrong w/his Mideast policy: unilateral, gratuitous step taken for short term political gain (helping Bibi’s & his electoral prospects) at service of long term strategic goal (changing Mideast parameters) setting dangerous precedent
After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!
Many of us strongly opposed the Iraq war, are convinced US policy in the MidEast must change & believe its costly military interventions in the region must end
But by acting as he did,
@realDonaldTrump
might somehow succeed in giving ending our endless wars a bad name ...
The same people that got us into the Middle East Quicksand, 8 Trillion Dollars and many thousands of lives (and millions of lives when you count the other side), are now fighting to keep us there. Don’t listen to people that haven’t got a clue. They have proven to be inept!
Some success
Stated goals were to
1. Get Iran to agree to more stringent nuclear constraints. Instead, Iran announced it is disregarding constraints it had agreed to
2. Get Iran to moderate its behavior. Instead, US claims Iran is threatening to target US regional assets
Today marks one year since President
@realDonaldTrump
made the historic decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal and embark on a bold new strategy to counter
#Iran
. Our maximum pressure campaign has already achieved historic success.
"I'm blamed for everything, including being the anti-Christ. I wish I didn’t have so many enemies, but I take it as an indication that I must be doing something right.”
“The crisis has abated for the moment, but there should be no illusions. Washington and Tehran are now locked into a long, unpredictable conflict where the propensity for miscalculation is high. “
Insightful piece by
@MaloneySuzanne
On this new year's day, our thoughts at
@CrisisGroup
are with
#MichaelKovrig
, his family and loved ones who should have been able to spend it together
China should immediately release him.
Almost everything
@AmbJohnBolton
says undermines the objective he says he's pursuing
Invoking the "Monroe doctrine" & fully equating Chavez with Maduro - no better way to make it impossible to form the broad coalition of Venezuelans for a democratic transition he says US wants
.
@AmbJohnBolton
on Venezuela: “I’d like to see as broad a coalition as we can put together to replace Maduro”
@jaketapper
: Do you not see US support for other dictators around the world undermines the credibility of your argument?
Bolton: “No, I don’t think it does."
#CNNSOTU
I'm not sure the National Security Adviser, writing in
@nypost
, appreciates that (his overstatement aside) this is a damning indictment of the Trump administration's Iran policy -- not of the JCPOA 👇
Excellente rencontre avec
@moise_katumbi
a Kigali.
Nous avons discute de l'avenir de la
#RDCONGO
, des elections, des dynamiques regionales et internationales et de ... football!
.
@SecBlinken
on the release of U.S. citizens from Iran: Husbands and wives, fathers and children, grandparents can hug each other again, can see each other again, can be with each other again.
« The episode underscored how Mr. Trump still faces an array of global threats in his final weeks in office. »
Well, not really. More like: the episode underscored how Mr. Trump still presents an array of global threats in his final weeks in office...
Must-read by
@jrezaian
:
"The next time an “Iran expert” tells you he supports the most crushing sanctions on the regime because they are the best way to support the Iranian people, be sure to ask him the last time he lived through something like this"
This is a very odd letter on a critical issue .
1.
@realDonaldTrump
says he’s decided the summit can’t take place now then adds that if
#KimJongUn
changes his mind, he should call or write. Change his mind on what since Trump cancelled it?
Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference...Prices to high! He has agreed!
No one doubts that US sanctions against Iran have been effective - every economic indicator confirms that
But effectiveness isn't success, & set against the Trump admin's stated demands the US is 0 for 12
It's like digging yourself into a hole and praising your shovel.
The Maximum Pressure campaign against the Iranian regime continues to be effective. It deprives the regime of funds to carry out its malign activities. Reducing that pressure is a dangerous choice, bound to weaken new regional partnerships for peace and strengthen the regime.
Told
@washingtonpost
that the deal reached with Turkey was “a [US] capitulation dressed up as a win », a validation of what is happening on the ground and then «claiming it was a deal reached through negotiations.”
“Iran wants to show that instead of a win-lose contest, Iran can turn this into a lose-lose dynamic for everyone,” said Ali Vaez, head of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
“It’s a sword of Damocles hanging over all diplomats. We are very concerned. Everyone is talking about it”
100 days since our colleague Michael Kovrig was arbitrarily detained in China. Sending a chilling message across the world.
He must be released.
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of Michael Kovrig's arbitrary detention, I join my three predecessors as presidents of
@CrisisGroup
--
@louise_arbour
,
@JGuehenno
& Gareth Evans -- in calling on China to release him.
As I told
@nytimes
, w/o making
too much of a comparison bn the U.S. and countries
@CrisisGroup
usually follows. similarities are alarming.
For that reason, we will, for the 1st time, cover risks of election-related violence in the U.S.
Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.
Events could quickly spin out of control and provoke the US-Iran military confrontation neither side wants — but to which both sides’ actions seem to be inexorably leading
This is must-read for anyone wishing to understand how the US got entangled in the
#yemen
war, how it can help end it, & what can be done to avoid a similar misadventure in the future 👇
Death of dual or foreign national detainee from
#coronavirus
would be a stain hard for Iran to erase
Denial of basic Iranian needs due to Trump administration opposing IMF loan would be a shame hard for US to overcome
@AliVaez
& I suggest a way forward.
"It’s very strange to have the president of the United States say something out loud & then have all the rest of us wondering if it really means anything"
@LaurelMillerICG
on Trump's promise to bring all troops back from
#Afghanistan
by Christmas
As I told the
@nytimes
, Iran’s decision “will come as a surprise only to those who believed in the fantasy that the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign somehow would lead Tehran to agree to more stringent measures."
“You want us to wash our hands? Some people can’t wash their kids for a week. They are living outdoors”
An outbreak of
#COVID2019
in Idlib where regime & Russia bombed health facilities, there's no equipment & no possible separation wld be calamitous.
"The Saudi-led war in Yemen has ground on for more than 3 yrs, killing 1000s of civilians & creating what the UN calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. But it took the crisis over the apparent murder of Jamal Khashoggi for the world to take notice"
I frequently ask
@CrisisGroup
staff to come up with examples of the impact of their work.
At times, I suspected they might be exaggerating just a tad.
Now I realize how incredibly modest they've been all along!
A humanitarian catastrophe could unfold in Mekelle, capital of
#Ethiopia
’s Tigray region. Entering a heavily populated city would exact an enormous, intolerable toll on civilians & badly damage Ethiopia’s international repute.
Our statement👇
There is so much in this rich, sober, piece on the BDS movement by
@CrisisGroup
's
@NathanThrall
- about where it comes from, what it is and isn't, and what it says about the state of the Israeli- Palestinian conflict.
A must and timely read.
"Having spent decades telling other countries that they need to face up to their problems, it is past time for the U.S. to turn its gaze inward. The stakes could hardly be higher"
Our statement on the mob incursion into the U.S. Capitol👇
As we lay out in just-released
@CrisisGroup
report, the risk of an
#ISIS
revival in Iraq and Syria existed even before Turkey's decision to enter Syria
But that has made things far worse.