Rivian DD
@Rivian_DD
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$RIVN financials, research, and analysis.
Joined November 2024
Something to keep an eye on: CA lawmakers are working to extend cap-and-trade before the end of the legislative session on Sept 12. Rivian pushing (via Politico) for auction revenues to fund a future EV tax credit. $RIVN
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$RIVN One under-appreciated sign of progress on R2: Design Validation Builds are already using mostly production-tooled parts. Costs more upfront, but de-risks the ramp by validating supplier readiness and processes early on.
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Over 75% of the Rivian Adventure Network (RAN) is now open to other EVs, supporting continued growth in Software & Services profitability. $RIVN
stories.rivian.com
That’s why in addition to industry-leading mapping technology with critical features like range on arrival estimates, charging scores, and charging stop selection, we are building the Rivian Advent...
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$TSLA FSD is valued at $200B+, while $RIVN autonomy is valued at ~$0. Talk about asymmetric upside.
I just increased my $RIVN position by another 43%. This is my largest single Rivian purchase ever, because over the weekend, I got convinced that Rivian is on the verge of becoming a $100 Billion+ company. Here's how I came to that conclusion:. In a new interview of @RJScaringe
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$RIVN is unlikely to tap the $6.6B DOE loan before Q3 ’26. To draw, they must meet targets for R2 production, quality, and profitability at Normal. The profitability target is likely the toughest, requiring a positive gross margin for the company or the R2 line.
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$RIVN has greatly expanded its data services agreement with Amazon, per its latest 10-Q. The deal includes higher spend and a multi-year commitment — likely tied to growing compute needs for autonomy.
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$RIVN is quickly scaling its core Software & Services business — a key driver of LT profitability:.• Revenue up ~29% QoQ ($151M → $194M).• Estimated gross margin up ~53% (3.6% → 5.5%). JV Software & Services revenue also grew, up 9% QoQ ($167M → $182M).
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$RIVN Q2 auto margins look rough — but after normalizing for one-time items, gross profit actually improved slightly QoQ. Adjustments include regulatory credits, LCNRV, warranty reserve changes, and $137M in unabsorbed overhead due to low production. Still, some key questions
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$RIVN R2 production remains on track for 1H 2026. Key updates:.• Tooling installation underway.• New R2 line expected to be online in Q3, followed by validation of equipment and production processes.• Phase 1 of paint shop upgrade completed — cuts planned downtime by ~1 week
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$RIVN has reiterated delivery guidance for 2025, but reduced Adj. EBITDA by $300M-$350M. • 2025 deliveries: 40,000 – 46,000.• Capex: $1.8B - $1.9B.• Adj. EBITDA: ($2.0B) - ($2.25B)
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$RIVN just released Q2 2025 earnings. Top-line beat, bottom-line miss. Gross loss of $206M. • Gross profit: -$206M. ↳ Automotive: –$335M. ↳ Software & Services: +$129M.• Revenue: $1.30B (vs. $1.29B est.).• EPS: –$1.21 (vs. –$0.64 est.)
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Note: "Adjusted EPS" would be around $0.16 higher (so -$0.56 instead of -$0.72).
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Even if $RIVN misses, I think the market will focus more on forward guidance — as we saw in Q1 and Q4. Key areas to watch:.• R2 progress.• Impact of BBB, tariffs, etc. • Details on MY26 and the EDV refresh.• Dates for AI day and the H2 plant shutdown.
$RIVN Q2 earnings preview. Wall Street estimates.• Revenue: $1.29B.• EPS: –$0.64. @Rivian_DD estimates.• Revenue: $1.31B .• EPS: -$0.72 (incl. $75M in credits). Consensus EPS of –$0.64 seems aggressive. Table below shows EPS under different credit and Opex scenarios.
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$RIVN Q2 earnings preview. Wall Street estimates.• Revenue: $1.29B.• EPS: –$0.64. @Rivian_DD estimates.• Revenue: $1.31B .• EPS: -$0.72 (incl. $75M in credits). Consensus EPS of –$0.64 seems aggressive. Table below shows EPS under different credit and Opex scenarios.
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Here’s a closer look at $RIVN's Software & Services segment in Q1. Note that JV revenue is expected to gradually increase over the next few years, with a back-end weighted profile.
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I estimate $RIVN Q2 automotive gross profit at –$122M (ex-reg credits), down from –$67M in Q1. The decline reflects the loss of one-time benefits (LCNRV, warranty adjustments) and a lower ASP, partially offset by material cost reductions and improved fixed cost absorption.
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