Tomorrow, the UK government has a clear choice to make:.- Continue treating #UKaid as the ugly duckling vs overall fiscal policy, and widen the disconnect between them. or.- Treat them as the equals as they should be & demonstrate global leadership at this critical time. 6/6 end.

2) New #UKgov fiscal rules will mean the current fiscal tests to return #Ukaid spending to 0.7% gross national income will be out of step. This would likely end hopes of a return, even if the UK is on a pathway to fiscal sustainability. A re-alignment on these is crucial. 5/6.

But, fiscal rule changes can help the situation in 2 ways:.1) #AutumnBudget will see big increase for UK investment spend, yet not for #UKaid, despite a growing amount allocated within it. Lets have consistency. Make certain #UKaid investment spend additional to its budget. 4/6.

@FCDOGovUK's sticking plaster is to defer payments for this year into next. It solves a short term problem, but creates a new one, constraining future spending. Next years budget is now full (see chart), with big drops on areas like health & limits new multilateral funding. 3/6

@FCDOGovUK aid spending is at crisis point. It's now the 4th year of significant in-year budget cuts. So far, spending in 2024 is estimated to be the lowest yet (see chart), with slim hope for change, given a hard #UKaid budget ceiling & continued high @ukhomeoffice costs. 2/6

Ahead of tomorrows #AutumnBudget all the talk is of changes to #UKgov fiscal rules, yet zero mention of altering the specific rules on #UKaid. A blog on how their alignment can help solve the current crisis in #UKaid spending and 🧵with 🔑 points 1/6.

UK PACT, the UK govs "flagship technical assistance programme" on climate finance has been further cut. Budget is £42 million less this year & £32 million less overall (see chart). The original budget sought was £340mn. The £11.6bn ICF commitment is looking harder by the day.

The new UK gov must review the ODA budget. Business as usual will only repeat past failings, impacting millions of the worlds poorest. Short term: Assess 0.5% GNI ceiling/rationalise accounting practices (eg refugee & admin spend). Long term: credible path back to 0.7% GNI. 8/8.

Whilst more ODA funding this year is imperative to avoid yet more cuts, this issue will keep happening without systemic change. @FCDOGovUK budgets in the future continue to be fully allocated under a 0.5% GNI ceiling, again based on reduced home office spending (see chart). 7/8

Unlike the last two years, when @hmtreasury allocated an additional £2.5 billion in ODA spending above 0.5% GNI, this year it hasn't (yet)done so. This means at best @FCDOGovUK likely having to defer payments into next year, or at worse cutting projects. 6/8.

There is now no @FCDOGovUK budget uplift, it's similar to last year, but with a real risk more funding could be surrendered to the @ukhomeoffice. This is because the Home Office has said it still doesn't have sufficient budget & will need to ask for more (see picture). 5/8

However, @ukhomeoffice spending isn't reducing as planned. Migrant arrivals by boat are still historically high, tracking inline with levels in 2022 & 2023. This has led @FCDOGovUK to surrender almost £1 billion in planned ODA spending to the home office (see picture). 4/8

The @FCDOGovUK plan has been carried forward to actual budgeted activities. Currently £9 billion has already been allocated (see chart). Even if @ukhomeoffice ODA spending was significantly reduced, this would have left FCDO with limited scope for any new in year spending. 3/8

Last year, @FCDOGovUK set out a plan to significantly uplift its ODA spending (see chart), banking on @ukhomeoffice reducing it's aid spending in relation to hosting refugees. FCDO annual report and accounts 2022 to 2023 - (. 2/8

Another year & yet another budget squeeze for @FCDOGovUK . Despite promises of an uplift in aid spending, the opposite is looking more and more likely. Lets dive into the reasons why and what options the new UK government has. A 🧵 1/8.

The UK government is set to cut it's international climate finance contributions by £1.6 billion. An announcement I am guessing Rishi Sunak won't be making at #COP28. No need for a 🧵, all the gory details/analysis in the blog 👇.

No wonder the UK didn't mention the UN Tax Convention in the white paper, they just tried to get it removed in the ongoing vote on it now (see link). Their amendment was rejected though (see pic).

For those interested in when "the fiscal situation allows" a return to spending 0.7% GNI on #UKaid, then @OBR_UK's new outlook shows no change from March, still 2027/28. #AutumnStatement

Wrap up. ✅ The paper is a big step up after the last few years. Positive steps to take forward into the future. ❎The potential was there for much more, punches felt pulled in areas. Plus the funding landscape for UK aid hampers achieving many ambitions the paper has. 12/12.

❎ 5) Mobilising private capital. Whilst good focus on breaking down barriers for private sector investment & looking to ensure the poorest are supported, it doesn't feel yet there is a cohesive strategy to achieve this, esp. when so much UK aid is going to be spent on it. 11/12.