Richmond Fed Research
@RichFedResearch
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The latest economic analysis and data from the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Joined November 2011
@manysheva_k @Columbia_Biz Correction: Ezra Oberfield of @Cornell ( kicked off the Goodfriend Conference with his presentation on "The Impact of Commercial Real Estate Regulations on U.S. Output.".
economics.cornell.edu
Ezra Oberfield
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@BasilHalperin of @UVA ends the day, and the Goodfriend Conference at #ECONCoreWeek, with a presentation on “Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates” #EconTwitter
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This afternoon, @huiyu_li of the @sffed will discuss the paper “Work-From-Home, Firms, Workers and Productivity" #EconTwitter
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Mark Watson of @PrincetonEcon presents “The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change," a paper co-authored with several economists at the Richmond Fed, where he also serves as a long-term consultant #EconTwitter
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In the latest episode of Speaking of the Economy, Sergio Correia discusses his research on the causes of bank failures and his use of a novel set of historical data to evaluate two different but intertwined potential causes:
richmondfed.org
Sergio Correia discusses his research on the causes of bank failures and his use of a novel set of historical data to evaluate two different but intertwined potential causes — insolvency of the bank...
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How might labor productivity and total factor productivity fare over the rest of the decade? Today's Economic Brief offers a forecast of U.S. productivity
richmondfed.org
How might labor productivity and total factor productivity fare over the rest of the decade?
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Day 2 of #EconCOREWeek concludes with a plenary session led by Richard Rogerson ( on “Cross-Country Sectoral Productivity Differences.” #EconTwitter
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John Fernald ( at @INSEAD presents this afternoon on “Micro and Macro Perspectives on Production-Based Markups” #EconTwitter
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Next was Jin Liu ( of @Penn. She discussed the paper “Multinational Production and Innovation in Tandem” #EconTwitter
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@manysheva_k of @Columbia_Biz was the first presenter this morning. She discussed the paper “The Origins of Structural Transformation” #EconTwitter
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The next two days of the Richmond Fed's #EconCOREWeek will be focused on the Marvin S. Goodfriend Conference. Here’s more on Goodfriend and his legacy: #EconTwitter.
richmondfed.org
Essays related to Marvin and his work: Personal Reflections Perspectives on Policy and Research Contributions Full collection in PDF format Marvin's research and policy papers: Collected Research and...
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Despite the dramatic changes in trade policy this year, current rates of import price growth are lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic and appear to be well within the range of movements observed over the past 10 years. More in today's Macro Minute:
richmondfed.org
Despite the dramatic changes in trade policy, core import prices have risen so far this year, though this growth is longer than during the pandemic period.
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@M_De_Nardi of the University of Minnesota kicks off the week by presenting the paper "Why Do Households Save and Work?” #EconTwitter
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This week, economists at the Richmond Fed will collaborate with their colleagues from around the world for #EconCOREWeek, which will include the Marvin S. Goodfriend Conference: #EconTwitter.
richmondfed.org
Visiting economists from a range of disciplines will join economists at the Richmond Fed for CORE Week, featuring the Marvin S. Goodfriend Conference on Productivity, in August 2025.
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The Richmond Fed's view of the national #economy, updated weekly with the latest data:
richmondfed.org
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The predicted average effective #tariff rate (AETR) for May 2025 was 17.5%, but the actual AETR was only 8.7%. Today's Economic Brief looks at possible explanations for this divergence, including shifts in importer behavior and implementation frictions.
richmondfed.org
The predicted average effective tariff rate for May was 17.5 percent, but the actual rate turned out to be 8.7 percent.
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On the Richmond Fed's podcast, Surekha discussed why adequate access to credit is important for individuals and the economy overall, what contributes to gaps in access, and how #CDFIs have addressed those gaps
richmondfed.org
Surekha Carpenter discusses why adequate access to credit is important for individuals and the economy overall, what contributes to gaps in access, and how community development financial instituti...
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Community colleges play an important role in developing and training people for in-demand jobs in their communities. That work includes preparing incarcerated individuals for life after prison. #EconFocus.
richmondfed.org
Programs within and outside prison walls provide opportunities for a new beginning.
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New single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 in June 2025, compared to 623,000 in May 2025 and 671,000 in June 2024. More in today's National Economic Indicators:
richmondfed.org
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