The Rays need some help at catcher. I wrote up some thoughts on the matter and hit on a number of different routes they could go in 2025: https://t.co/xSxEQ9D3LX

#2 overall! Highest Rays pick in 18 years (Tim Beckham, #1 in 2008)

Rays signed Steven Matz (34) to a 2-year deal. Last year he mostly worked in relief and posted solid results: 76.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.46 FIP He leans heavily on his GB inducing sinker and features CH & CB as secondaries. Really good command, Rays may look to stretch him back out.

The Josh Lowe conundrum. Is this a bounce back candidate coming off of two down, injured years? Or Do you get what you can for him now (in trade) before the deteriorating skills become unplayable?

Given the current state of the roster, here’s my rough estimate of how playing time will shake out. Shows the clear need for another SS option. The outfield mix is a bit messy and tough to predict. Could Josh Lowe be shopped?

Happy winter meetings! Based on reporting out there, I think the rays are likely to: - Add a utility INF to take the load off Williams/Walls - Add an innings-eater SP - Continue exploring external catching options I also think we could see further shuffling in the OF.

Putting the Mullins deal in context with similar deals from last winter. If he meets his 2026 projection, it would be a relatively good outcome compared to last year’s results.

Cedric Mullins! He offers plus baserunning and defense which will fit very well into this outfield group. With the bat, he owns a career 113 wRC+ vs righties and was one of the league leaders in pulled flyball rate last year. Big fan of this move, especially on a 1 year deal.

A few Rays notes in here: - Rays looking for a CF upgrade and HOU Jake Meyers is being shopped. - Rays also weighing a Brandon Lowe trade but it’s not clear which direction they’ll go. (FWIW my poll last week showed ~80% of Rays fans think he stays, ~20% think he’s traded)

Temperature check: Will Brandon Lowe open the 2026 season with the Rays?

I’m a fan of the Steven Wilson acquisition. He has the highest sweeper usage in baseball and it’s a weapon. He also posted the highest Zone% out of all breaking balls that had at least 11 in. of sweep (his is at 15). Impressive command for such a big breaking pitch.

Today’s recap: 40-man subtractions (6) - Gray - Whitley - Pereira - Morel - Fraley - Orze 40-man additions (5) + Gomez (CHW) + Wilson (CHW) + Keegan + Cook + Areinamo Non 40-man additions (2) + Guerrero (BOS) + Kisting (MIN)

Rays trade for RHP Luis Guerrero (25) from Boston. A hard throwing reliever who previously had some prospect pedigree and minor league success. Fastball/slider is his main mix, and he’s struggled plenty with walks in his career. He has options and will not occupy a 40-man spot.

This reporting suggests Lars Nootbaar is available and if so I think he’s a really strong fit in Tampa Bay. Bat speed & plate skills were still there even in a down (& injury riddled) 2025. He’s under control for two more years and projected to make $5.7M in arb in 2026.

TB will be looking for a veteran SP and RHP Chris Paddack (29) feels like a Rays-y target. Elite command scores & a + changeup are his carrying traits which both align with many recent TB acquisitions. Still searching for a good breaker. Should be attainable on a short FA deal.

Rays don’t have any slam dunk adds ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline (6PM Tuesday). Catcher Dominic Keegan is probably the closest to that. Others who could see some movement: Bats: Jadher Areinamo Cooper Kinney Tatem Levins Arms: Evan Reifert Logan Workman Alex Cook

Expecting the Rays to shakeup their outfield this winter. In 2025 their OF group produced minimal offensive output while also ranking in the bottom 10 in outfield OAA, DRS, and arm value. Work to do:

Rays claimed OF Jake Fraley (30) today. The former TB prospect is a career .261/.344/.432 (112 wRC+) hitter vs RHP. He showcased a changed batted ball profile in 2025 and was among the league leaders in pulled flyball%. He’s in his final arb year at a projected $3.6M.

Rays had a big day of roster shuffling, with the Pete Fairbanks $11M option decline as the most surprising move. Appears they didn’t project much of a trade market for him, and they didn’t pounce on any offers in recent years either. A re-shaping of the bullpen awaits.

Utility man Ryan Vilade (26) is the Rays first acquisition of the offseason. After bouncing around many orgs he was very good in AAA last year. He paired great damage stats (113 max, 47% hardhit) with above average contact rates. RHH with 0 options left.

Here’s how the relievers traded at the deadline have performed since Aug 1st (min. 10 IP):