Shunya: Stillness of mind
@RaviBhandari83
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Long term investor | Avid reader | Occasional blogger | Inconsistent Runner | Random YouTuber | Passionate abt cap market
India
Joined May 2014
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Pinned Tweet
Mistakes are made in bull market which gets revealed in bear market.
Opportunities missed in bear market are regretted in bull market.
Only a sane eye see right balance between risk and return
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Rec'd so many msg/DMs on previous tweet made me dig further..
LIC total investment in Adani stock is 62,800cr, thats 8.16% of LIC Eq AUM..
Do retweet for max reach
@AI_Feb21
@TheFactFindr
@SmartSyncServ
@AnishA_Moonka
@Vineet_invstor
@Vivek_Investor
@MashraniVivek
Adani Total Gas might be next company for nifty50 inclusion
With the pace at which LIC is buying, there may not be much float remain to buy from market..
@AI_Feb21
@TheFactFindr
@Wise__Trader
@NishantSampada
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What a Bank
HDFC Q2 results, PBT up 17%
Deposit up 23%, advance up 19%, so capacity to loan book more. Deposit breached 10 lakh crore, gaining market share from PSU bank.
GNPA nnpa stable,
what else one can wish
One more crisis so people can buy more shares
@dmuthuk
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Warren buffet kept huge paper cutting of different market crashes near his desk. It reminds two things :
1. Anything can happen in market
2. Things doesn't remain bad forever, eventually things improve
@dmuthuk
@SmartSyncServ
@MashraniVivek
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Clariant chemical declare Rs140 as special dividend, that's 29% of last traded price 😱
Apart from that, there is another Rs11 that will be paid in Aug as final dividend.
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Silver up 15% in a week.
Hind Zinc produces near 700 tones of silver.
It is among top10 largest silver producer globally.
India domestic production : Almost everything comes from hind zinc
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Polyplex declares Special dividend of Rs 100/sh
With share price at 750, dividend looks really special
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One of the best addition in
@screener_in
In investor section, you will note get No. of investors.
I use to track, No. of investors to understand, if the consolidation vs distribution happening in particular stock..
Now, it's ready made for us
Kudos
@faltoo
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This is what
@narendramodi
has to do with some trade union of PSU Co.
Treat one company with iron feast, you will see other 10 will automatically become disciplined.
Perfect case can be Indian Maharaja
@dmuthuk
@MashraniVivek
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TCNS fall 20% today, you may want to know when open offer is at 503, why stock fell to 416
Trying to explain contours of deal, pls retweet
There is three part of offer.
1st conditional offer to public upto 29%
2nd To get upto 51% remaining offer to promoter
3rd merger wd ABFRL
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Any suggest for companies less than 500cr mcap where promoter showing real spark to make it big..
1-2 line apart from names will be really helpful..
🙏🙏
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When HDFC be merged with HDFC Bank, group weight in bank nifty will go up 1000bips
HDFC parent, 100% float, is NBFC hence outside Bank nifty..
4-5 large Bank nifty ETF about 15k cr, 10% adjustment means 1.5k buying in group equivalent selling in kotak, ICICI Axis etc
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FII dumped half of holding in IEX in past 1yr..
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Stop hiding behind quality. If the stock discussed, my guess is Bajaj finance / HUL can be in trouble. DMart Nestle should still be fine as they penetration is still low. Move away from high PE stocks, focus on core valuation matrices: Sunil Singhania
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When you are engrossed in public service, you will forget that you have a fractured leg.
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Heavy taxes killing businesses.
Corporate tax 34.9%.
Out of 100, Leaves 65 profit at hand of company.
When dividend paid, tax 20% of paid amount.
So, 54.1 reaches shareholder.
He again taxed at 10% tax of div recd, left with 48.7
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Possibility of short squeeze..
1.4cr short position in future
.5cr position in call option writers.
From where one will deliver for short position.. float which was expected from FPO not coming..
Anything can happen.. need to remain watchful, who blinks now..
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Anyone who wants to understand hotel business. This video is must, equally important for novice as well as expert.
Thanks
@varinder_bansal
and
@AnilSinghviZEE
for making this.
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#IDFCFIRSTBank
clicked highest QoQ growth both in advance n deposit
@AnishA_Moonka
@abhymurarka
@sahil_vi
@soicfinance
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@contrarianEPS
Once you start writing too much of your holding in social..
You don't own the stock, the stock own you..
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Adani Total Gas might be next company for nifty50 inclusion
With the pace at which LIC is buying, there may not be much float remain to buy from market..
@AI_Feb21
@TheFactFindr
@Wise__Trader
@NishantSampada
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Big lesson to small companies..
If you take loan, take so much that lender has sleepless nights..
Too big to fail..
@contrarianEPS
Lenders write to Ministry Of Finance to resolve Vodafone Idea’s AGR issue, say computation of AGR issue needs to be addressed: Sources to
@PoddarNisha
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Indiabulls RE fund raise complete embassy merger in a roundabout way.
In merger, embassy would brought their assets n stake wud go higher.
Here, embassy/Blackstone take large warrant, sell asset to indiabulls n will convert warrant to equity from proceed of sale of assets
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SBIMF is allowed to hike stake in HDFC bank upto 9.99%.
It is not that simple stake increase to 10% as HDFC stake in HDFC bank will be knocked off post merger.
Lets understand the full implication of the news, if there is any
RBI allows SBI Funds Management to buy upto 9.99% stake in HDFC Bank & advises to acquire upto 9.99% in HDFC Bank within 6 months
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Bank / NBFC, which keep on raising equity regularly has to do this at price higher than prev raise, HDFC, Bajaj
Equally good are Co. which doesn't raise fund for growth, Sundaram Fin, sound & steady biz model
Raising money at price lower than previous cycle is tricky
@dmuthuk
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Interesting to note, LIC own 70% of DII investment in Adani Group.
In Few names, LIC held 96/99% of the DII investment, hence no other domestic institution feels comfortable like LIC..
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Indian promoters should realize large wealth is created through equity, once that thought is through, they will stop siphoning small amount here and there..
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Credit Suisse halt margin loan on adani bonds..
Change in mcap of adani group on an hourly basis is higher than entire mcap of CS
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Here is three part series of poor Charlie Almanack from Charlie Munger. Worth listening even twice... Happy learning and sharing
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
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When market start valuing land Bank value peak is formed, old saying
Reading- Rajiv jain says Hindenburg had their view and we have our view and we disagree with Hindenburg. Adani has lot of real asset value and has created assets over 30 years. Frauds don’t last 30 years. (Prof Damodaran had earlier said similar)
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Nuvama wealth listed post demerger from Edelweiss.
Two point for consideration on valn.
+ive: Co. control by PAG (56%) get premium multiple to 360°, Anand Rathi, Prudent..
MNC like governance.
Limited float, post PAG, Shah family 14% directly
only 30% given Edel shareholder
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One reason for urban society unhappines is social media.. everyone wants to look happy rather than actually stay happy.
Ppl wants to show happiness thru materialistic stuff, thats like drugs, everytym need higher dosage.
If last tym, hatchback brought you smile, next you need SUV
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Met few real estate developers recently..
Takeaway for home buyer..
Price incr in units sold by developer is far higher compared to 2nd hand sale..
Earlier, old property (15-20y old) property price use to stagnate as they don't hv amenities, now that happening in few yr old prop
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Dud stock in portfolio is like weed problem in garden
Weed takes water & nutrient, more than fair share, & restrict plant growth. Dud stock takes too much mind share & take away return from portfolio.
This Dussera kill the portfolio Ravan
@dmuthuk
@SagarRV1
@SmartSyncServ
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Here is another Multibagger
Audiobook : The most important thing by Howard Marks.
Listening multiple times is like averaging up your winning bets
@Vivek_Investor
@SmartSyncServ
@OnlineDeals_IN
@MashraniVivek
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Inspiration from FM...
High taxes in India is good for taxpayer, makes entire system healthier
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Real shrinkflation is not in biscuits or chips packet..
Real shrinkflation is in Mumbai real estate.. They are giving 2bhk in 550sq ft carpet..
matlab baccha agar zor se bhaga, toh deewar tod k padosi k ghar
@StocksResearch
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Puja pandal near my home..
Disney land pandal at shree bhumi (Kolkata)
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How would a perma bulls think about market...
1. Inflation spike : Will create asset price reflation led boom
2. Inflation cool off: improve earning quality.
3. Oil spike: booming economy leading demand
4. Oil collapse : more purchasing power, pseudo stimulus
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God is turning negative on metals...
Why Neelkanth Mishra turned underweight on metals
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#ITC
have Rs 5.75 dividend last yr.
Now biz/EBIT has grown 10%
Corp tax cut inc 10%to PAT/Cash flow
DDT removal bring inc 20% to FPI / BAT / Govt/retailer (whoever manages div within slab rate)
Effectively, div Yld jumped close to 4% at CMP
@Vivek_Investor
@dmuthuk
@Dinesh_Sairam
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India industry is witnessing consolidating from various side.
Steel: Now ruled by 3 players, Tata, Sail, JSW etc
Cement: Ultratech, Shree, ACC/Ambuja etc
RE/Infra: Non serious player dying naturally
Banks: PSU govt promoted mergers /Smaller pvt bank will eventually fade/merge
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If salary cost of Co. goes up by 4%, most of incremental salary will go to C-suite ppl. When salary budget go up 10%, employee at lower rung get much high % growth
Same goes with economy, if we stuck at 5%, same blue chip will only go up
@dmuthuk
@BMTheEquityDesk
@MashraniVivek
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#Walchandnagar
Ind does large pref issue of 248cr on mcap of 578cr.. near 40% of current mcap
62cr came from Promoter
Pivotal is sunidhi securities 25cr
R Kathotia is Subhkam ventures 44cr
Ashish Kacholia 20cr
Many team member of famous Fund Mgr
Stock in Periodic call auction
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Absolute power is a must read.
It is genuinely great work, in 1st half you will wonder if book is all about praising NSE. How NSE transformed India trading system, took biz from corrupt BSE.
Then story changes..
@suchetadalal
👌👌👌
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No one buy blue chip stock anymore, they are too overvalued...
Sounds like Yogi Berra famous quote for a particular night club "no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded"
@unseenvalue
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Further went to see if LIC equity allocation vs HDFC, SBI & ICICI.
LIC equity allocation as % of total AUM is 20%; increased from 18% as of Mar'18.
Other Life insurer maintain equity allocation less than 10%
Also, pvt players reduced equity allocation considerably since Mar'18
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RBI went into deep thinking & assign the name co-operative bank
They co-operate with corrupt corporate, politician & goons
What more can be asked
@dmuthuk
@dugalira
@latha_venkatesh
@deepakshenoy
@TamalBandyo
@indiacharts
@BalakrishnanR
@kayezad
@abhymurarka
@amitgupta0310
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Whoever think inflation is running at single digit, try go shopping in malls in metros in India..
Pick any stuff, apparel, watch, shoes, you might think our inflation is from some other countries
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When it becomes too easy to make money in market, rest assure taleb's turkey moment is round the corner..
Well explained why only charts following not works now
#StockMarket
#StockTrading
@ketansangoi
@Rishi64776843
@bd8304
@iamravin
@RaviBhandari83
@msdho4
@AI_Feb21
@Pass_Curious
@lalitinvestor
@contrarianEPS
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We keep on saying, quality is trading at astronomical valuation. When we find exception, we have excuses why not to buy at current price.
Here is
#Marico
Ltd ar 5yr lowest multiple.
One should definite add at current price
@SmartSyncServ
@dmuthuk
@MashraniVivek
@Vivek_Investor
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#Investing
Portfolio return is dependent upon two thing :
1. How quickly you admit mistakes & book losses
2. Keep riding the winning bets despite some stagnant period
Among the two, 1st one is more difficult than 2nd one
@dmuthuk
@SmartSyncServ
@MashraniVivek
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List of highest div yld pvt companies.. Though in some places number looks off, you must keep these names in mind, whenever you anticipate EPS will be going up you can expect promoter will be sharing higher div..
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Fund was given from adani to adani to buy adani shares so that adani after receiving sale process of adani shares can release pledge on adani shares
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These companies generate high free cash flow
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GDP per capita is more imp than GDP absolute
Growth in any economy is factor of two things, population and productivity.
If population of a country is growing, naturally GDP of that country will grow. But economic happiness of the citizen is determined by GDP per capita.
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Few thing about cigarette biz, hardly exp on product development
Since govt ban ad, you save on ad compared to other FMCG
Somehow, no new player enter, same players dominating the market for decades.
Limited capex on machinery, hence high RoCE
Inflation linked pricing.
Total U.S. cigarette consumption peaked in 1981 at 640 billion cigarettes. By 2007 that dropped 44%, to 360 billion.
Still Altria has been the biggest wealth creator.
How this is possible?
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I am repeating this almost every now n then reason for bullish on large pvt banks are they are expected to grow at same or higher rate than their historical avg, deliver same of higher RoA/RoE and available and cheaper than historical valuations
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Further looked into, LIC investment in Top10 mcap companies..
LIC investment in Top10 Co. stands at 3.7lk cr, that is 48% of LIC equity AUM.
LIC AUM stands at 39.1lk cr of which equity AUM is 7.7lk cr.
Here, LIC owns just 26% of total investment from DII.
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Syrma SGS results presentation..
In 18 page ppt, 1st 7 pages is about H1 performance..
Then one n only page is about Q2 performance..
One page for financial update n 3 page for reward n recognition (this will be new peak impossible to beach)
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Every investor should listen to 1st 15min of HDFC bk concall today..
When you know concerns are there in the minds of investor, you deal with them head on..
Here is the audio link to today concall
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If the economy is growing so fast, why is our FMCG/other sector volume growth so weak..
This qtn must be in everyone mind.
@neelkanthmishra
answer it so lucidly..
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@contrarianEPS
Suzlon when price was 500type in 2007 was near 65-70k cr mcap..
It is already 50k cr mcap..
Traders forecasting it will touch 200 next yr 🥴
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2W sales degrowth has been highest in past 2-3yrs compared to other economic contraction period in the country.. Also, age of 2w (running fleet) highest, signalling replacement demand kicking in..
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Indian market is protected as we have buy on dips folks who doesn't let market to have larger correction.. hence we are just 6% down from ATH.
US market, no geniuses there, hence S&P corrected 20%.
Jokes aside, if you keep buying on small dips, you will soon run out of capital
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My Maiden attempt on YouTube.
Have done detailed analysis on
#Whirlpool
..
Pls retweet if you like the video, if not can share feedback in pw :)
@MashraniVivek
@SmartSyncServ
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If we had portfolio of these companies in last two decades
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We have instances where LIC pumped the stock n keeping price v high..
Lets look at idea where LIC continuously selling n keeping price depressed..
#PowerGrid
Do retweet if you like the idea
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Hero Moto wholesale Nov sales was 3.6lk only. But retail sales is at 5.3lk they pushed lower inventory so that inventory at dealer level goes down.
Hero got beaten for to wholesale no.
@_soniashenoy
@Disciplined_Inv
@WealthEnrich
@abhishekcjain
@sanstocktrader
Src: FADA/trendlyn
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TAM for electrification market, v strong growth expected in few pockets..
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#Investing
Stay away from companies involved with govt project.
Analyst gets bullish on companies getting infra and related project from the govt.
XX 000cr of Infra order book from state and central govt, YY 000cr of market potential from affordable housing project
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We should promote nimbu paani, coconut water or fresh juice..
All these MNCs find it easy to sell junk with heavy advertising. Youth are easily moved by strong marketing campaign
Red Bull has built a monopoly of in India with 61% market share
But Sting energy is on its way to destroy it!
The crazy part? 15-17 year olds are having 4 Stings a day while daily wage workers are switching it for their lunch
THREAD: How Sting is clipping Red Bull's Wiiings 🧵
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Life ke funde simple rakho.
HDFC is at all time high, its in my portfolio. Its a great buy. Core business still available at all time low valuation, everyone should buy 💪💪
Kotak is at all time high, not in my portfolio, this is complete bubble, which bank trades at 5.5x 🤣🤣
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China conducted missile test in North of Taiwan..
China also mobilized land forces in province facing Taiwan..
US in response announced sending two carrier groups off to seas of Taiwan..
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IRFC touched mcap of 1.7 trillion..
Only 40 companies in India with that large mcap..
IRFC, mcap is higher than Varun beverages/Tata Steel..
If price rising as everyone following charts, how will they all exit.. like right now everyone will get sell signal at same time
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First CPPIB sold stake in kotak M Bank.
Now, CPPIB will sell stake in SBI Life..
Seems this is the reason why CPPIB is selling
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Found this really interesting investment analysis for Usha Martin by
@Jatin_Khemani
&
@SmartSyncServ
Do watch from 1hr onwards, where Jatin shares his views on Usha Martin..
Good one Jaitn/Ankit 👍
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V strong results from L&T Fin..
PAT grew 12% QoQ..
LTFH is 4th largest in India for microfinance
Largest in tractor finance
Leading lender in urban 2W
Huge transformation from wholesale lender to completely retail by FY26
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One podcast, I listen v earnestly is from Howard Marks Memo..
So simple yet so profound..
Here is link to his podcast on Google..
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Some thoughts on
#Gati
ltd..
Gati undervaluation is due to lower margin.
5% vs peers 10-12%.
Promoter is been in discussion to buy stake of JV partner kinetsu from Gati KWE..
As transaction gets over with kinetsu, margin trajectory will improve n catch with peers..
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@tushar9590
It's called creeping acquisition..
If they buy more than 5% in any financial year, open offer will be triggered..
Recent example, when RJ sold 5% stake in rallis, Tata Chem bought 4.99% so that it doesn't trigger open offer
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Eventually group might go down..
But next 2 days, it need to collect all its might, n bring price back to level, issue is subscribed..
Its now or never for them.
Whichever way it goes, it will be a case study for sure..
All happening in a week time..
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Zerodha bought over 1% stake in RBL Bank in Dec..
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#Ttkhealthcare
1200cr mcap,
Rec'd 600cr from sale of human Pharma, cash balance as of now 800cr.
400cr EV for Eva perfume brand, skore condom, good life room fresher..
Plus got food item, medical device (heart valve, ortho)
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ITC largest shareholder receive double upgrade from BAML
Target price increase c. 40%, this could be reason for today strong move in ITC
@Dinesh_Sairam
@Vivek_Investor
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Check shareholding of LIC ASIM Non Par fund from screener..
This vehicle mostly hold small mid cap companies n this scheme is selling shares left/right/center..
Read the entire thread, some conspiracy theory added by me, don't miss it
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Issued in public interest..
Be wary of all Twitter handles, who is saying stop spreading lies, PC jeweller just posted 85cr profit..
Check below CNBC tweet, go to quoted tweet, you will find many influencers..
PC Jeweller defaults on Rs 3,470 cr loan facilities in the July-Sep quarter
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Pvt banks took hit yesterday, but their exposure is 10% of group O/S debt and 1.5% of their net worth..
And holcim debt looks mostly overseas..
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For the first time India clock 50k per month EV sales in December 2021.
Near 45%/47% of total sales is 2w/3w
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Only anti-nationalist sold today 😆
On a serious note, this look weird..
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We did detailed discussion on this topic.. do go through Twitter spaces here..
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Next level Scuttlebutt..
Analyst to understand inside of delivery ecosystem, took work as delivery guy.. work for four days..
Kudos
@varij49
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M bullish on AHFC..
Here is the investment case..
1. AHFC stand at same position where HDFC was 10-15yr back, penetration in rural HFC is 2-3% n will grow at ~25% in AUM for next 4-5yr.. rural HFC has just scratch tip of the iceberg
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