@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
🚀 A small-cap defence stock skyrocketed 100% in just 90 days! Apollo Micro Systems (AMS) is the talk of the town, with its P/E ratio jumping from 78x to a whopping 168x. So, what magic beans is this company selling? Is this the private sector's answer to defence PSUs, or a
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
AMS, Kya karte ho bhai? Think of them as the "brains" behind the brawn. They don't build the missile, but they build its intelligence. 👉 Electronics, sensors, guidance systems. 👉 Crucial for missiles, drones, torpedoes & satellites. They are deeply integrated with DRDO,
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
It's all about the order book baby📈 AMS management has given an aggressive guidance: 👉 Current Order Book (June '25): ₹735 cr. 👉 Expected Order Book (March '26): To TRIPLE from here! Plus, they bagged their FIRST-EVER export order of ₹113.8 cr. This is a HUGE deal.
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
AMS is on a mission to own the entire food chain. Two key moves: 1️⃣ Acquisition: Bought IDL Explosives for ₹107 cr. This helps them control more of the supply chain (vertical integration) and sell directly to the armed forces. 2️⃣ Tech Transfer MoU: Partnered with a US firm
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
Is the insane 168x P/E valuation justified? 🤯 On the surface, it looks insane. But let's look at the growth story the market is betting on: 👉 Management forecasts 45-50% revenue growth for the next 2 years - meaning EBITDA growth is likely to be MUCH MORE ! 👉 Its
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
The cash crunch. 🚩 High-tech defence projects take a long time, and AMS has a serious working capital problem. This is a feature for most defence companies, not a bug. 👉 A lot of cash is stuck in receivables. 👉 The company has even had negative operating cash flow in
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
The entire bull case for Apollo Micro Systems balances on a knife's edge. The story hinges on two things: 1️⃣ Execution: Can they translate the massive order book into actual revenue & profit? 2️⃣ Working Capital: Can they bring down their working capital days from 258 to
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@RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing
1 day
In summary: Apollo Micro Systems is a high-growth, high-risk story. ✅ Strong order book visibility ✅ Key role in India's defence ecosystem ✅ Aggressive expansion plans ❌ Insane valuation ❌ Major working capital & cash flow issues ❌ High promoter pledge The success of
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