Radames Belfort
@RadamesBelfort
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São Paulo finance educator & researcher. Asset pricing, market microstructure, risk management, and crypto spot liquidity, costs & constraints.
Joined September 2019
BTC: Flushed longs at $87.2k. Recovered to $89.7k. Sentiment: 24 (Extreme Fear). USD/BRL: 5.28 (Real is strong). The market cleared the leverage. It’s painful, but necessary. We trade the volatility to fund the vision. The real work begins in April. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
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$BTC sits at $92k. Downside Magnet: Heavy long liquidations at $93k–$94k. Upside Magnet: Short squeeze zone at $96k–$97k. Funding: 0.0033% (Healthy). https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#Bitcoin #Trading #RadamesBelfort
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Weekend Risk Check. ⚠️ $BTC: $95.4k (High Confidence). Brent Oil: $63.76 (-4% drop). VIX: 15.37 (Complacency?). The market is pricing in perfection. Oil is falling; Crypto is flying. When it feels this easy, check your stops. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#RadamesBelfort
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New quantitative research by Radames Belfort identifies a major structural break. Digital asset liquidity is decoupling from sovereign collateral correlations, signaling a maturing, independent market. Read more: https://t.co/Rum2MYvu9H
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The Denominator Effect: P = CF / r. 🇧🇷 Selic (2026): 12.25%. 🇺🇸 US 10Y: ~4.18%. As "r" drops, "P" rises. $BTC at $90k isn't hype; it's a repricing. Math, not magic. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#Finance #Bitcoin #RadamesBelfort
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Golden hour between limestone facades—blue domes and slender minarets framing the street. Travel reminder: markets move fast, but cities teach patience. Taking notes, then unplugging for the evening.
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The 1000bps Wall: US 10Y: 4.17%. Selic: 15%. USD/BRL: 5.37. But DI Futures (13.73%) signal the end of the 15% era. $BTC at $92.9k is front-running the cut. Buy the future. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#Macro #Brazil #RadamesBelfort
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Jan 5: Lights are back on. ⚡ $BTC Vol +27% ($34B). Price ~$92.5k. Institutions returned. USD/BRL: 5.42. S&P Fut: +0.17%. Holiday noise is gone. Trade the real trend. #Bitcoin #Liquidity
https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
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2025 Final Snapshot: $BTC $88.4k. Sentiment: 21 (Extreme Fear). USD/BRL: 5.48. Price is rising while fear deepens. This divergence is the signal. The crowd is scared. We are building. See you in 2026. 🥂 https://t.co/ew5AfG21bA
#Bitcoin #2026Vision
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2025 Audit: The $89k bounce failed. $BTC $87.2k. Sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear). Lesson: In low liquidity, price is noise. USD/BRL at 5.57 confirms the defensive stance. Don't mistake leverage for genius. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#Bitcoin #Risk #RadamesBelfort
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2026 Macro Pivot: 📉 Selic to 12.25% 📉 GDP slows to 1.80% The era of 15% risk-free yield is ending. Capital will be forced to rotate. $BTC at $89k is front-running this liquidity shift. Adapt your risk model. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#Macro #Brazil
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Swapping market charts for Berlin’s history. 🏛️ The Brandenburg Gate is a testament to resilience—a concept we value in finance, but it’s much more beautiful in person under the holiday lights. 🎄🇧🇷
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The screens are dark, and the volatility is low. Today, we measure returns not in percentages, but in moments shared with family. Wishing you a peaceful holiday. We will analyze the markets tomorrow; today, we enjoy the pause. Merry Christmas / Feliz Natal. 🎄🇧🇷 #Christmas2025
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Hello. I am Radames Belfort, a 58-year-old financial researcher and educator based in São Paulo, Brazil. I am joining X to share insights on asset pricing, market microstructure, and risk management. https://t.co/ew5AfG2z18
#Introduction #Finance
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