TX Primary Election Tracking
@RaceDayData
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Track nine counties and compare our models against both prevailing campaign wisdom and the work of an independent research team. Join us on this data journey.
Dallas, TX
Joined February 2026
For 15 years I’ve analyzed local elections through data. This primary cycle felt like the perfect time to test a true grassroots, data-driven approach. Most campaigns ignore 40–50% of actual turnout… yet still call their strategies “effective.” That never sat right with me. 1/4
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High-probability voters (>40% likelihood) comprise >90% of early primary turnout. The pattern holds nearly identical across regions, showing the model’s strength and transferability. Week 2 will broaden the electorate, but early results underscore the multidimensional voter model
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The core hypothesis is being validated early. The data strongly suggests that 40–50% of total primary turnout will come from low‑probability or no‑history voters once the full cycle is complete.
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3. High‑propensity voters dominate early turnout but do not define the electorate. MODELED GOP 4 voters are the largest group, but not a majority.
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2. Low‑probability voters are showing up in meaningful numbers. Roughly one‑third of early GOP turnout is coming from voters campaigns typically ignore.
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1. Turnout patterns are consistent and predictable. The same distribution appears across regions, suggesting a statewide behavioral pattern.
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What we learn overall Across three major counties:
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Implication Campaigns that exclusively target the “4s” are leaving 54–57% of the early electorate untouched. : Campaigns celebrate their targeting models while ignoring half the people who actually vote
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This is the single largest block — but it’s not a majority.
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The highest‑propensity GOP voters (MODELED GOP 4) dominate early turnout — but not enough to justify ignoring the rest Across all three counties, MODELED GOP 4 voters make up: 43.09% 44.40% 46.59%
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Why this matters: Campaigns that only target MODELED GOP 3 and 4 voters are ignoring one‑third of the people who are actually showing up — even in the first two days.
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This directly supports our hypothesis that 40–50% of primary turnout may come from low‑probability or no‑history voters once the full early vote + Election Day is counted.
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That means 27–31% of early GOP turnout is coming from voters who are not the traditional “high‑probability” primary electorate
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Low‑probability and no‑history voters are absolutely participating — and at meaningful levels
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This uniformity suggests that early turnout behavior is not county‑specific — it’s structural.
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The GOP primary electorate is behaving in a predictable, model‑aligned way across regions. The highest‑propensity GOP voters (MODELED GOP 3 and 4) make up roughly 70% of early turnout everywhere. The lowest‑propensity voters (0 and 1) consistently make up 8–11% of turnout.
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This is shockingly consistent for three large, demographically different counties. What this means:
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The turnout distribution is nearly identical across all three counties Across the North Texas Metro County, the second Metro County, and the Gulf Coast County, the share of turnout by MODELED GOP score follows the same pattern:
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Of note though, the % gap (0.02%) between Republicans and Democrats is the smallest from the past two elections. In 2024, after the first full day, the gap was 0.29% (the second lowest). Historically this gap has ended up between 5 – 7%.
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Overall, I do not think it will surpass 2022, but will the gap should be closed. In 2024, the gap was closed by the end of the first week
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