Gregory Robin
@RWResearch
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Random Walk maintains the most robust and accurate ensemble of promotional activity available.
San Diego
Joined March 2015
The Random Walk Promotional ensemble helps detect inflection such as the ones recently seen in $LULU $RH, $CAVA $CBRL $WING $AEO when brands start spamming their customers and leads with emails.
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$CBRL the idea that a logo change is the culprit here doesn't pass the smell test. They have been sending all kids of free stuff in email campaign well before this fumble. Its continued free dessert, free pancakes.,,, $CAKE $CAVA $CMG
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$SFM The post COVID Wall Street narrative that restaurants, grocers can just raise prices aggressively indefinitely appears to be falling apart. We captured unusual discounts ahead of Sprouts reducing the same store growth forecast to nearly flat for Q4. $WMT $TGT
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$CAVA expensive bowls and slow service? Traditional Wall Street analysts are trained to think in terms of mean reversion. They think listening to and getting close the management narrative will provide an edge- the opposite is more likely. Stay independent and unbiased.
$CAVA. Massive ramp in email campaigns as they saw demand slow and customers return less frequently. The quickest and cheapest way to try and avoid losing customers is to blast your entire email list.
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$RCL @RandomWalkSteve shares how our promotional ensemble detected changes in how #RoyalCaribbean was sending incentives to drive last minute cruisers with more aggressive discounts than the past. $CCL, $NCLH.
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Are there any better ways to understand how management views their own organic demand than by their promotional email campaign volumes and intensity?? $CMG
Restaurants are changing their email sending strategies in the face of intensifying competition, an inflation worn down diner and 'bowl' fatigue. @RandomWalkSteve discusses how our promotional ensemble uncovers which brands appear in panic mode. $CMG $CAKE, $CAVA, $MCD, $YUM,
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$SFM Too much inflation, and coming competition for the boss. Same store sales 6% ---> 1% . Our promotional ensemble caught the ramp up in significant discounts. Don't miss the next airball!
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Can you send 'free' $CAKE and eat it too? Is going out to eat getting too expensive? Our promotional ensemble captured excessive 'free' campaigns ahead of today's miss on sales and management noting a soft consumer. Are other restaurants like $WING , $CAVA, $BROS $MCD, $CMG,
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Excited to announce we are looking to hire experienced technical leads - Senior Data Scientist and Front End Developer as Random Walk begins development on a significant new product. Were in San Diego by the beach. #altdata #promotions #datascience #hiring
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$SFIX. When brands are giving away their core service (styling) "here's $30 off" to previous customers they are in trouble. Tracking credit card data -a coincident indicator- won't deliver alpha. Share prices discount future expected growth and its not good.#promotions #altdata
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Restaurants are changing their email sending strategies in the face of intensifying competition, an inflation worn down diner and 'bowl' fatigue. @RandomWalkSteve discusses how our promotional ensemble uncovers which brands appear in panic mode. $CMG $CAKE, $CAVA, $MCD, $YUM,
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Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk were not close. @RealCandaceO * He unfollowed her 2 years ago on X * She was outed by TPUSA since 2019 * Last month Charlie Kirk denounced Candace and call her words demonic * The day Charlie was killed, Candace fake-cried about losing her best
Candace Owens UNDERCUTS @MattWalshBlog’s call for unity on the Right against the Left after Charlie Kirk’s death - the clearest proof yet of the ‘Woke Right’ Walsh refuses to acknowledge.
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$CBRL logo styles aren't really the issue more of a distraction really. Are there just too many of these and the middle is squeezed? Our promotional ensemble detected excessive "free" and 20% off at never before seen levels in recent weeks. #crackerbarrel
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$WSM What a complete polar opposite for Pottery Barn. Attempting to maintain the integrity of the brand with disciplined send patterns and stable campaign volumes. Which $RH or $WSM do you think is generating organic demand and which is just spamming leads with increasing
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$RH This isn't something that appears to be stabilizing. One of the worst and fastest growers of promotional email campaigns in our universe. Restoration Hardware is nuking the inbox of leads and past customers with a mountain of never ending 60% off discounts.
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$LOVE this cheap furniture space is really crowded, too many 35% off discount tipped our system. Should be interesting to see $RH and $WSM which target a higher demographic.
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$WRBY. Email volume to all time high on nepo baby's fake glasses. Do people think this email campaign will work?
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On the heels of terrible jobs number are consumers 'cooked'? $CMG Chipotle is still sending its cusotmers too much 'free' stuff. Free chips, free for a year, free drinks...Will other restauarants and QSRs have to copy and nuke their customers with increased incentives? $EAT
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