Since the top 2000 are subject to a 6 month vest on 50% of their allocation, this reduces the initial float from 1.43B to 1.18B ENA. Where do you think ENA opens tomorrow?

It's a whale's game with more than 60% of total shards going to the top 2000. The cutoff for top 2k is ~10M shards, or $25k put into a 10x pool from the start. Note: I didn't track shards given on L2's or gearbox, so actual cutoff likely somewhat higher

Ethena's $ENA launches tomorrow. Farming shards was very lucrative, but top recipients will be subject to vesting. I was able to get the shard distribution for all users on mainnet and figure out the cutoff for vesting. Detailed numbers below ⬇️

It seems to me that BTC dumped *as* people realized that the news was fake, not before.

a timeline of this evenings events

It's still early, so I'll keep updating this thread with the latest stats. but for now it's looking like the ETH is in strong hands. (6/n).

How much ETH sold in total? 150.39 ETH (~$285k). Thats . ~0.18% of the total 82299 ETH withdrawn.~0.38% of the 39999 ETH withdrawn to EOA's. (5/n).

Of those 13, just 8 sold their ETH. One chad actually levered up (borrowed stables against their withdrawn ETH and sent it to KuCoin). (4/n)

That leaves 14,174 exiting validators controlled by ~600 EOAs (EOA = normal address) and total of ~40k ETH withdrawn. Of those 600 addresses, just 13 (!) have made any transactions since withdrawing . (3/n).

Of the ~30k validators that have withdrawn so far, just over half are controlled by smart contracts, mostly from LSD's. We will ignore these, as LSDs have not implemented withdrawals, and that ETH has been liquid anyway. (2/n).

With the launch of staked ETH withdrawals earlier today, there has been much fear mongering with regards to withdrawals and the size of the withdrawal queue. ~82,000 ETH ($155M) withdrawn in the last ~8h. But the more important question—where has that ETH gone? . (1/n).

ETH would be deflationary again if avg base fee is ~30+ gwei with full blocks. In the medium term, this seems easily achievable with a small increase in on-chain activity. However, it remains to be seen what gas fees will look like in a rollup dominated world with cheap DA. (5/5).

The ~1.15% annual inflation would imply 1,384K ETH issuance, *double* its current value. At current burn rates, ETH would no longer be be deflationary but instead be slightly inflationary at ~0.26%/yr . (4/5)

At a 55% staking participation rate, the ETH staking rewards would be ~2.09% (excl. tx fee/mev rewards), implying ~1.15% annual inflation. Not bad! But is it low enough that ETH burned through gas fees can turn it deflationary? . (3/5).

First, how high will the staking percentage be? Let's compare to other coins. Let's assume ETH is somewhere in the middle of the pack with a ~55% of supply staked. (2/5)

Unlike other PoS coins, ETH's supply issuance rate is not static—it increases as more ETH is staked to maintain an attractive enough staking APR. How significant will the increased staking participation be post-Shanghai? Will ETH still be deflationary?. (1/5).

UST is in such a fascinating place right now. The lower it goes, the more likely it is to return to peg. but the inverse holds true as well. Market still figuring out how to price it

although aave also does have "stable" interest rate loans, they aren't truly fixed and can be increased on high demand.

Fixed-interest lending products will be game changing for institutional players (ie crypto hedge funds)—they don't want to risk USD interest rate spiking on compound/aave/etc, as it has again and again.