NEW REPORT on GB Energy, and the role of the state by @nesta_uk and @Baringa. This work underpins some of what is being announced today. 🧵 1/17.

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3) Most strategies contain lofty objectives and a list of initiatives, rather than quantify the impact of policies on outcome. While there are uncertainties, all strategies should replace adjectives with numbers rather than put these in impact assessments after policy decided.

2) It is feasible and cost-effective to adopt radical action on obesity so halving obesity as a goal should be established in 10 yr health plan, with a body - akin to Climate Change Committee - set up to monitor progress and recommend any policy changes.

Some takeaways: 1) We tend to think that obesity is intractable - limited progress, in the very long term, and at great political cost. These measures show that we can halve obesity, the only question is what balance between prevention vs treatment, and tax, reg and spending.

A further pathway that halves obesity includes prevention and treatment, but leans heavily on regulatory measures such as mandatory targets for retailers. This is on the basis that these will not increase the cost of food and therefore be more politically acceptable than tax.

A tax, regulation and treatment package which leans heavily on measures like the sugar and salt tax as proposed in the National Food Strategy (which on its own raises £3.2 bn per year), and cuts obesity by half.

One third of the benefits would benefit the state through NHS and social care savings and increased productivity; the rest of the benefits would flow to individuals. (Obviously the costs will fall in time, and you could also look at providing GLP1s over a longer period).

A GLP1 focused pathway where you give 3 million new people each year with a BMI of over 30 a 2 year course of GLP drugs costs £42 billion over 5 yrs (or 8.5bn per year). The benefits would be higher than the costs at £26bn per year and cut obesity by 41%.

We’ve also selected 4 packages that illustrate different approaches to halving obesity. Here’s a summary of them:. The pathway that clearly doesn’t reach the target is focused on informing and educating citizens on nutrition and exercise. 11 policies reduce obesity by 10%.

What are the different evidence-based paths to halving obesity?. Check out our ‘Blueprint’ project, where we’ve reviewed thousands of papers and rated interventions based on their costs, benefits, impact on obesity, and the strength of the evidence.

RT @stianwestlake: Over the weekend, we @ESRC made a big announcement about an investment that I hope will be of interest to anyone who car….

RT @stianwestlake: New report: the $100 Billion Evidence Gap. The Governments of the UK, US, Australia and Canada spend trillions a year o….

RT @nesta_uk: Coming up 📢 . Hear new analysis from Nesta's @RGurumurthy and @Baringa on the role that Great British Energy could play in de….

RT @nesta_uk: The UK Govt has launched Great British Energy, the new state-owned clean power company. Analysis from Nesta's @RGurumurthy a….

RT @Mike_Thommo: More essential reading. Thoughtful proposals addressing a key problem while raising the pace: how to maintain competiti….

5) Greater certainty for supply chain, leading to more investment and domestic capacity. 6) More efficient and resilient deployment of network infrastructure and system assets, reducing total cost. 7) Acceleration of innovation and commercialisation of new technologies. 17/17.

3) Savings of up to c. £1bn in regret development expenditure for offshore wind projects that ultimately fail, with similar benefits possible for onshore projects. 4) A reduction in constraint costs which are projected to reach £3bn per year in the late 2020s. 16/17.

What benefits will this bring?.1) Speed: offshore wind deployed 2 to 4 years faster due to enhanced coordination and efficiencies in project development and deployment. 2) A transfer of up to £35bn from producers to consumers out to 2050 for offshore wind alone. 15/17.