The difference between a low emission scenario (SSP126, left) and a high emission scenario (SSP585, right) for the Arctic is immense. This shows the percentage of CMIP6 models that have sea ice at a given location (>15% concentration), and how it changes over time.

So how does that line up with your expectations of what makes for a good summer? Can we meaningfully quantify this? #GoodSummerIndex #ClimateData #Weather #DataViz

Rome on the other hand: Starting from a very good baseline of exceptional summers, but a clear negative trend with hotter and more intense heatwaves detracting from the overall experience.

Now look at Berlin. 📈 GSI is trending up — summers are getting better. Why? - More sunny spells -More swimming weather – But too much heat is now a downside. Hotter ≠ better, once you’re sweating through 35°C.

But how is the quality of summers varying over time? In Bergen the GSI since 1980 is chaotic — some gems, some write-offs, and no clear trends. But the most important factors are crystal clear: ☀️ How warm is it? ☀️ How sunny is it?

Let’s zoom in on southern Norway 🇳🇴 Bergen is doing okay (for Bergen). Oslofjord? Better. But check out Kristiansand to Arendal coast — it really pops on the GSI. There’s a reason so many people from Oslo head there for summer holidays.

Here’s how Europe looks so far for summer 2025 (June + July): Coastal Mediterranean regions score high ✅ Further north = tougher summers ❄️ But zoom in, and the variability is interesting. ⬇️

The GSI looks at five things, each worth 20 points: ☀️ Sunny spells (3+ dry, clear days) 🌡️ Comfortable warmth (penalizing >30°C) 🏊 Swimmable conditions 🌧️ Avoiding long rainy stretches 🌓 Balanced across June and July Total score? 0–100. Simple, but revealing.

🌞 What makes a good summer? I’ve been thinking about that a lot lately — and decided to quantify it. Meet the Good Summer Index (GSI): a data-driven but human-centric score of summer quality, based on things people say they actually enjoy. Thread 👇

Looking like a quite high risk of a marine heatwave in the northern aquaculture production zones this summer: https://t.co/rFlMOAqsbH #seasonalforecast #aquaculture #salmon #Norway

Interessant om kjernekraft i Storbritannia ‘A viable business’: Rolls-Royce banking on success of small modular reactors

Just magical to see the wild Exmoor Ponies gallop through the beaverwoods at Bamff.

The Arctic is rapidly losing sea ice. More open water results in more waves, more wave-ice interaction, and more breaking-up of sea ice. The ForWArd project at the @Nansensenteret aims to quantify and predict this effect. @guiboutin @RDavy84 https://t.co/lwAeIBDQ8V

Catching up on some boundary layer meteorology papers and doesn't this just some up the field: Most current climate and weather models assume that roughness for momentum and heat are linearly proportional. This is not supported by observations (study 1 (1984) 2 (1987),3(1993),...

I like compiling observational estimates of AMOC strength. I recently became interested in how well the Copernicus compilation of reanalysis was doing. Here is the Copernicus reanalysis in grey, RAPID in red, and @E_L_Worthington's in black.

It is too simplistic to think that introducing single species (eg, beaver, bison, pine marten) can fundamentally repair degraded ecosystems Even if we call them keystones Rewilding is about rebuilding complexity, which includes complex trophic structures https://t.co/dMMu74uqtQ

“The problems facing the world aren’t problems caused by a lack of intelligence or computing power The fixes are difficult to implement because of social and political forces, not a lack of insight, thinking, or novelty” Excellent piece on AI hype

Fifteen years minus one day between these photos. Taken at the Rhone glacier in Switzerland today. Not gonna lie, it made me cry.

Carrifran 1999 and today 26th July 2024. Landscape scale habitat restoration in Scotland. 🌳🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 #RewildScotland #RewildOurPlanet

Declining planetary albedo is contributing hugely to the acceleration of global warming, but why is the planet getting darker? This new PhD studentship, with Mark Williamson and me, sets out to answer that vital question. Please retweet. https://t.co/0eWu7mA4GR

Been making the case that inter-disciplinary research is not only about physical scientists working with social scientists, artists, etc But also we need to be better at working across disciplines even within the environmental sciences - ecology, pollution, climate, hydrology...