Last week, the price of natural gas dipped below 72p/therm. It was a significant moment. Why? Because according to Ed Miliband's maths, it's impossible. (1/?)

Both these charts are true! And in both cases, the solution is to approve vastly more homes in urban areas. Building more will bring down private rents, and allow people to move to the permanent accommodation they need to rebuild their lives. And it will save the state millions

This is done according to Treasury rules, so it's not NESO's fault, but they seem like dumb rules if you're trying to compare the cost of different energy pathways, which this exercise is.

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PPS In the column, I also mention an issue with the new NESO report that a colleague spotted. They've used better gas prices, but the carbon cost for comparing the different pathways is the 'social cost', not the actual traded price, which is about 6x higher.

PS Obviously 72p/therm was a projected average over the decade, not a hard boundary. But the numbers really aren't looking good. Here are all the contemporaneous projections we could find...

And as the recent news on EVs shows, it's far from the only way in which his plans are running into trouble. Plenty more in my column - please give it a read https://t.co/FCrbNQVMcg

Atlas: “More information—that was the original promise of the Internet. To my horror, it became a tool for censorship. Once everyone was on social media, it became a way to manipulate people and censor things they didn’t want out there.”

In short, Ed's numbers add up only if gas prices stay at a historic high, for a decade. Instead, they're already below the lowest level his report said they could go - leaving him and us billions of pounds in the hole.

In fact, Miliband's own department was predicting a price range of 42p-114p. The International Energy Agency forecast an ‘LNG glut’, cutting gas prices by a half or two thirds by 2030.

As @CPSThinkTank showed here, they did it by taking respectable independent forecasts of the market price - *and then turning the worst-case scenario (101p/therm) into the new central forecast*. Because global uncertainty, or something.

If you dig into it, the NESO report assumes a gas price over the decade of between 72p/therm (sound familiar?) and 290p, with a central estimate of 101p. This is pretty punchy , given the non-Ukraine range of 15-80p. So how did they get to it?

Ottawa and Alberta sign an MOU for a pipeline through BC, but opposition could stop it. What does this mean for Canada's economy? You'll want to hear this episode.

The NESO report actually said Ed's plan would be *no more expensive* than the counterfactual of sticking with gas. But to get to that verdict, it had to make a series of fairly eye-popping assumptions - especially about the gas price.

When Ed came to power, he commissioned NESO to show that his plans would save money. He claimed the resulting report proved it. It didn't.

Ed has said, again and again, that swapping gas for wind is not just greener but cheaper. It's at the heart of his promise to lower bills. But as I argue in @thetimes today, it's built on a lie.

Last week, the price of natural gas dipped below 72p/therm. It was a significant moment. Why? Because according to Ed Miliband's maths, it's impossible. (1/?)

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Is Washington about to demolish the UK's Online Safety Act? The GRANITE Act would make foreign censorship of Americans legally radioactive – ignore it, and you face ‘thermonuclear’ damages of up to $75m per threat. Watch @prestonjbyrne now on The Capitalist.

This @TheAthletic comment is truly world class

Fun fact about this film: the energy used to make it was generated entirely by George Orwell's body spinning in his grave

Last quarter I rolled out Microsoft Copilot to 4,000 employees. $30 per seat per month. $1.4 million annually. I called it "digital transformation." The board loved that phrase. They approved it in eleven minutes. No one asked what it would actually do. Including me. I

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This is a bombshell, but it's also an infuriating example of burying the point. It's not until 4,400 words into a 9,000-word piece that we are told that the key stories in one of the most famous science nonfiction books of the 20th century are made up!

Ninety-one years old, and those bloody elites still cut him down.