Allen Motew
@QTweather
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Director of QTWeather for 15 years at the beautiful Chicago Board of Trade building. "AI" the new employee. Bye, Bye! Still tweeting though. Join us.
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WOW! Rest of this month shows potentially 5-8 inch totals parts of Paraguay, C South Brazil and even over C Argentina! Stay tuned. Big time soaking (not for all) across Brazil, Argentina and portions of Uruguay and Paraguay the next 2 weeks!
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Mother Nature taketh and giveth. The next 16 days across Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and S Brazil. Glorious at times flooding rainfall. Stay tuned. Lets see if modeling stays consistent. Never in stone but nice to see this from the models! Can’t rain everywhere so pick your spot
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The next 2 weeks. Argentina gets what it needs but has to wait a while!
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Say bye bye to La Niña. Neutral Enson then El Niño in July????
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Not only in S Plains of the U.S. but drought country in Argentina to see glorious rainfall end of this month. 16 day output for Argentina is delightful. Ahh….Mother Nature!
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How dry Brazil, how wet Argentina? All eyes soon on S America as Argentina crops rebound and Brazil "issues" seen. Potentially. NMME seasonal anomalies for heart of growing season precipitation over S. America.
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Another wet forecast for almost all of Argentina (holes?) for the next 2 weeks. Glorious rains as La Niña peaks. NICE!
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Some damage suspected. They can’t catch a break across key Argentine crop regions. Coldest field temps sub-freezing. 0 to -2C for isolated coldest spots Saturday morning.
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Peaking La Niña and this precip the next 9 days from morning global output. All eyes on South America (for the next 4 months!).
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New NMME for Dec-Jan-Feb, 3 category precip probabilities for South America. NEW!
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One extreme to the other. This evening's global output for Argentina region rainfall over the nexgt 16 days. WOW!
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Drought to flooding in Argentina/Uruguay? The next 16 days. Will this happen for some of the region?
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Argentine and Uruguay? rains return for the first 2 days of February.
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WOW. Weekend rains may not disappoint. 1-3 inches on the way???? Shift from earlier modeling. Important if happens this way.
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Afternoon global. Amazing if occurs. Again….Argentina may be on a roll the next 16 days.
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Today through the weekend. The next 5 days from overnight global output. More, More, More for much of Argentina. WONDERFUL!
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Holiday hope for Argentina. The next two weeks from afternoon global.
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Important rains Buenos Aires, Uruguay and portions of Entire Rios of .50+ inches week
#2
? Days 8-15 from now? Note much less Central Argentina of 0-.45 inches next 16 days. Hopefully fills in better than this. More for S Brazil. Plenty!
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WOW! Strong La Nina by end of Summer, 2024? Stay tuned. It's never easy and especially with the climate extremes showing more often.
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Rio Grande do Sul and S Brazil/Paraguay from today’s global output has some large accumulations mainly week
#2
into start of November. WOW! La Niña or not!
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4 potential systems and these accumulations rest of month? Cooler and stormy every 2-4 days.
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Troubling dry early look at El Niño winter across Brazil and plentifully wet (flooding?) across Argentina? Stay tuned.
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Argentine rains the next 7 days. Keep it coming. Still many miss or are sub-par. Week 2 some but not much expected! Hotter than normal has returned.
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New NMME for expected January anomaly across S America. El Nino peaking too. Did not expect this!
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La Nina is coming...like it or not! Arrives from some consistent modeling with 62% liklihood (NOAA CPC recently) June onward. How strong is the question and as it often has an effect on Atlantic Hurricanes the question also becomes how tough an Atlantic Hurricane season?
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Glorious rains for Argentina and Brazil (except Northeast) next 16 days. Finally!
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Stay tuned! The next 6 days. Some 3-4+ inches for key areas. WOW! New global output.
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New modeling has some glorious downpours of 1-3+ inches for parts of Argentina. 25% miss out over much of the action over the next 2 days. Another freeze on the way?
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Worse and worse. This modeling keeps expanding the U.S. Summer dryness outlook. Now includes into S Canadian Prairie?
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Are we starting to see a shift in the intensity of zone 3.4 cooling this Summer from CFSv2 members? Note blue lines and "latest 8 forecast members). La Nina....? Hmmm...
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The haves and have nots across Argentina upcoming. 2nd storm really dumps? The next 2 weeks.
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Heat and storms…heat and storms. The next 2 weeks in Argentina.
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This map keeps sticking in my mind. A week ago….Large areas of Argentine vegetation in tough shape compared to last year particularly and Center-west Brazil too! Hmmm.
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Some flooding totals? Days 7-12 more? 4-6 inch 12 day totals for C Argentina. Not for all though!
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Leaving La Niña? Zone 3.4 Water temps most anomalous currently.. La Niña gone by Spring? Some recent modeling thinks so.
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The next 10 days. North vs South in Argentina? Heat to remain. Uruguay gets stormy.
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the haves and have nots for S America El Nino growing season. Stay tuned. talk about extremes... Dec-Feb. It's never easy!
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Will this happen or not? Today until mid-month across South America. Soaking (2 systems a week from now?) across C Argentina. Plenty into SE Brazil too.
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How bad the 3 month precip drought in Argentina. Now, this weekend record cold event of modern times for February hit. Dry ground more susceptible to cold may have accentuated radiational cooling too. What a growing season in summary and for some a long way to go yet. Stay tuned.
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Summer arrives in Argentina. Heat and storms a week from today. NICE!
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Week 2 for Argentina brings the best rains in a long while for some. Too late for most! Variably better crop areas to love though!
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How strong of a La Nina by Fall? What kind of Atlantic Hurricane Season will we have?
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Crucial rains return after week of drying and some heat for Days 8-10. Front across C Argentina shown with some 3+ inch amounts. Stay tuned!
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Hold on….it’s coming! Morning global for the next 10 days. Trend is Argentina’s friend?
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El Nino takes hold. Nov-Jan precip anomaly for S America from new NMME today!
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Much to watch over Argentina. Storms, storms and more storms. Stay tuned. The next 10-14 days plenty of action. Holes of course!
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Flooding rains into C Argentina with rains 8+ days from now into S Brazil/Paraguay. Rains slow to show as the action stays confined to Argentina. Stay tuned amazing turn around in moisture fortune for Argentina starting late Saturday and lasting more than 10 days!
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Brazil vegetation health index this year (left) and last year (right).
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Latest soil moisture profile from Argentina. Core central tough week ahead with some heat and drying. Rest of February...stay tuned.
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The next 10 days from today’s morning global output. Heat wave and very little moisture Argentina.
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WOW! Modeling keeps getting wetter and wetter for Argentina. Now has large area seeing 3+ inches by mid-month. Some to see 6+?
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Damage done in Argentina! Too late for many there and not in stone for next 2 weeks (latest global forecast this morning). Recovery for S Brazil and Paraguay? Rio Grande do Sul the big winner? N Argentina the big winner? Stay tuned but damage done. Too late and still too little?
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Downpours indicated days 8-10 Argentina from evening global output. You think?
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Too much for some in Argentina...flooding? The next 16 days from today's global.
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