QB Data Mine
@QBDataMine
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There won’t be a 2022 project. The author has moved onto other things. Thanks to all who followed along and enjoyed the content.
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And that works both ways, positive and negative:
Josh Allen had 21 dropped interceptions in 2020. Jameis Winston (2019) is the only other quarterback who has had 21 dropped interceptions in the last two years. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz had 20 in 2019.
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Patrick Mahomes is an exceptional quarterback. His interception numbers this season are a reflection on how perception of NFL quarterbacks is often based on things that they don’t control (defenders catching/dropping passes).
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Lamar Jackson (63.9%*) ranked 7th in depth-adjusted accuracy out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in 2020. *That is a 4.9% increase on Jackson's MVP season in 2019 and a 6.9% increase on Jackson's rookie season in 2018.
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Lamar Jackson was accurate on 22 of 46 deep passes (47.8%) last season. 6th out of 31 quarterbacks.
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7.5% of Lamar Jackson's passes in 2020 were dropped. The Baltimore Ravens' quarterback was sabotaged by his receivers more often than anyone else in the league.
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Ben Roethlisberger (4.0%) had the 19th-ranked interceptable pass rate in the NFL in 2020.
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Cam Newton (4.1%) had the 20th-ranked interceptable pass rate in the NFL in 2020.
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For the second year in a row, Aaron Rodgers' receivers lost the most yards in the league to drops: 552 yards. That was more than 100 yards than second-placed Patrick Mahomes who threw 97 more passes than him.
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Aaron Rodgers threw the ball to the first down line on third down 91 times last season. He was accurate on 62 of those throws (68.1%). 1st out of 31 quarterbacks.
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The point of analytics and charting is to create greater depth and measure more aspects of a position. Use numbers to create a full picture. Diluting your argument down into a single number devoid of context is what creating a narrative actually is.
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Aaron Rodgers (70.9%) was the only QB in the NFL more accurate than Jackson (69.8%) on throws further than five yards.
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QBs who throw deeper more often have lower overall accuracy scores when not adjusted for depth because throwing downfield is harder than throwing short. 56.1% of Jackson's passes in 2020 went further than five yards downfield, fifth-most in the NFL. 33.7% further than 10 (9th)
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Lamar Jackson (63.9%*) ranked 7th in depth-adjusted accuracy out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in 2020. *That is a 4.9% increase on Jackson's MVP season in 2019 and a 6.9% increase on Jackson's rookie season in 2018.
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Lamar Jackson threw the ball to the first down line on third down 58 times last season. He was accurate on 39 of those throws (67.2%). 2nd out of 31 quarterbacks.
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Since 2018, Lamar Jackson has consistently ranked in the top 10 of depth-adjusted accuracy and situational accuracy (throwing relative to the first down line) despite having amongst the worst receivers in the NFL. Context matters. This is one step above reading a box score👇
There is this random narrative that Lamar Jackson is an accurate QB... But since 2018, Jackson has the highest % of passes that were inaccurate (but catchable) Lamar Jackson: 25.1% Cam Newton: 25.1% Nick Mullens: 24.7% Carson Wentz: 24.5% Eli Manning: 24.5% (min. 500 att)
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Lamar Jackson (4.2%) had the 21st-ranked interceptable pass rate in the NFL in 2020.
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Gardner Minshew (4.3%) had the 22nd-ranked interceptable pass rate in the NFL in 2020.
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Matt Ryan (4.3%) had the 23rd-ranked interceptable pass rate in the NFL in 2020.
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Dropped interceptions show us how often a quarterback unnecessarily gave the defender an opportunity to catch the ball or relied on the defender to make a mistake to not throw an interception. Interceptable pass rate accounts for attempts and caught INTs
Matthew Stafford (4.4%) had the 24th-ranked interceptable pass rate in the NFL in 2020
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