Emily Oster
@ProfEmilyOster
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Data-Driven Pregnancy and Parenting Economist @BrownUniversity Author #ExpectingBetter , #Cribsheet , #FamilyFirm , #TheUnexpected CEO of 👇
Providence, RI
Joined December 2012
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I cannot believe the answer to "Is it a failure that you didn't have enough tests?" is "No, because who could have predicted this?"
EVERYONE.
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I'm appalled by this answer, in part due the the tone. But also it suggests no one is talking about doing this -- free, widely available tests -- even though many other countries are. I just do not get it.
Jen Psaki somewhat mockingly asks reporter at the White House Daily Press Briefing if the US should be sending out rapid
#COVID19
tests to every household.
In the UK you can order 1 pack (containing 7 tests) everyday.
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My mother was impossibly cool, incredibly warm, smart, funny, charming, honest and I owe her approximately everything and then some.
I am so sad to say she passed away today after a battle with cancer.
My heart is broken.
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Me: I am going downstairs to be on MSNBC to talk about the gendered nature of this recession
Kids: it is really important you cut our cake first because you are the only person who does it right.
There is some lesson here but who can tell what it is
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Kids are low risk. Go ahead and plan the summer.
My latest in Atlantic.
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I am not sure I will have another decade quite like this...
2 kids
2 books (250,000 copies!)
18 publications
2 houses
5 moves
2 promotions
1 (epic) tenure denial
1 tenure approval
345,837 times I thought of something better to say after a conversation was over (estimated)
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If you are not an academic, this will seem insane
If you are, you will wish to hire this guy.
You can’t, though, because he has tenure at Harvard.
Tenure announcement: April 2019 | James Mickens
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If you'd have told me as a kid that I'd ever write something which got a page graphic in the NYT I'd have said you were crazy.
Feeling very, very lucky today.
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Coming up on day 3 of waiting on a negative PCR so my kid can return to school.
This is unacceptable. I have resources/can work from home. But a lot of people do not.
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WTF American Testing Situation. Just WTF.
@michaelmina_lab
@nytopinion
@nytimes
@TheCOVIDCollab
My sister lives in London. This is her stockpile of FREE tests. Her son’s school tried to give her more today. She declined. Each box has 7 tests. She has 16 boxes. 112 tests. The US has failed.
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I am leaving active engagement on Twitter. This will be my last set of tweets for the foreseeable future.
Although I see a lot of value in information sharing here, I think the recent period has been marked by largely unproductive dialog -- at least around COVID (1/3)
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There is the humblebrag and then there is the straight up brag. This is the second kind.
I worked really hard and I ran a 5k PR today in 20:28.
I am sharing because I am proud of myself and it’s been a tough time.
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Masking off-ramps are necessary. I will admit I have been reluctant to talk about this, in part due to fear of being yelled at. This wasn't brave. I will try to be braver.
Thanks to
@JessGrose
for writing this.
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This will make a lot of people very angry, but I think it's important to realize this perspective is very much one that many people have.
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This type of personal attack is frustrating. Our team has done a ton of work to generate data that helps us understand risk in context. Our data isn't alone in suggesting schools are low risk and on the flip side we are seeing huge losses for kids being out of school (1/3)
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The grandparents are here, fully vaccinated, and I am just in heaven.
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I am disappointed that
@NYGovCuomo
is choosing to close schools in affected areas in NYC but not dining, etc. This shows both poor understanding of the risks and benefits.
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This message brought to you by my first personality: Economist.
If you want people to get vaccinated, pay them. (Yes, also make it easy. But, also, pay them).
I know, I know, economists are the worst.
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I am tremendously honored, deeply grateful and, frankly, incredibly surprised to be on the TIME100 list this year. Thanks to
@sapinker
for a lovely write-up and to everyone who reads, comments, etc for such amazing support.
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I am not sure why this bear noting but:
When I write "pregnant people" (which is also the language the CDC uses), I am not intending to diminish the experience of pregnant women.
Women are also people!
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Twenty years ago today I went out with some guy and ate Turkish food and talked about economics.
Today, I'll get some (takeout) Turkish food with that same guy, and talk about economics and possibly parenting logistics.
I'm one lucky girl.
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So! If you are still interested in what I'm saying you can find me on Substack at ParentData, and on Instagram, where I mostly do parenting.
Bye for now... (3/3)
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CDC says schools should be open. That’s all. That’s the tweet
Fall is gone. But let’s try for spring.
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School quarantines should end. They do not make sense from a public health standpoint, and they are bad for kids and families.
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I knew he was a genius when I met him in the Adams House dining hall in 2001.
Now everyone knows.
Congratulations to my wonderful husband, Jesse Shapiro, MacArthur Fellow.
#MacFellow
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I know this seems implied but: I suggest CDC message directly things like
"If you are fully vaccinated, you can walk around outside unmasked even if other people are not always masking."
Every day, they should put up one thing like this. We need to message return to normal.
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This is going to happen everywhere.
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The other day my therapist told me "I mean, you already know you are not to everyone's taste."
And, really, truer words have never been spoken.
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Hahahahahha. 😂😂😂😂😂
Better: “When students see you on screen it is okay if they realize you are a real person with a four year old who sometimes runs through the room naked saying ‘wipe me!!!’”
When students see you on screen this fall, they need to see someone professorial, someone who has created a classroom space that feels organized and free of distractions.
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Knowing that young children are at very very low risk for serious illness is not reassuring for parents looking at another 8 months of quarantines of 3 year olds for exposure.
We need practical solutions (no quarantine, or test-to-stay for this group).
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My unpopular opinion of the day is that I think we may be reaching the limits of fear-based vaccine motivation. And there are downsides to continuing to sow fear among those who are already afraid.
What might work?
-Full FDA approval
-Employer mandates
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My paper on selection on observed and unobserved variables is edging towards 1000 citations in Google Scholar.
This paper was rejected many, many places before it found a home at JBES.
This is just to say: don't give up after a paper rejection. There are many journals.
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Every day an average of 50 Americans die of opiod overdose. An average of 0.05 people die from terrorism. Where is the opiod policy?
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This will be important to amplify.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky: “Our data from the CDC today suggest that vaccinated people do not carry the virus.”
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My nine year old took a wine delivery while I was on a video call and when I emerged she and the 5 year old were moving all the wine from the box outside into the wine fridge, wearing their rain boots, in the middle of a wind storm. This pretty much summarizes quarantine.
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In response to my essay in
@nytimes
on how people do not take pandemic safety seriously, someone emailed to call me a nosy c*nt and I think that pretty much summarizes the issue.
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I'll be taking a break from Twitter for a week or two.
See you on the other side.
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I am trying to be a gracious adult, but honestly this phrase "Oster doesn’t have a background in public health..." in the TAP article is really frustrating. I have academic papers on infant mortality, on diabetes, on genetic testing, on vaccination, on HIV. (1/2)
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A volunteer team gave up lots of nights and weekends to collect data which the government should have been getting. They put the data up in real time so people could see it. They are working on doing more every day.
I would like to see them get some positive credit. (2/2)
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For those of you who have not been admitted to Econ PhD programs... The first time I applied, I was rejected everywhere. I worked for a year, took a breath, and tried again.
Not my first failure, certainly not my last. But it was worth it to take another shot.
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Vaccines for kids could come in OCTOBER. This is very exciting.
The risk of serious illness to kids is very low. But: many of us eager to vaccinate our kids to protect them from any infection, to keep them in school and to protect older immune compromised people in our lives.
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This shouldn't be happening. Period. It doesn't protect health of kids or community, and we know school closures harm kids. Bars, restaurants, everything else in Flint is open. Just a disgrace.
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I'm continuously puzzled at our testing approach. Rather than "get a test within 24 hours", which is practically challenging, why are we not having everyone rapid test on the plane?
Rapid Test + Customs Form.
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Probably cannot be said enough. Layered mitigation in school (swiss cheese/safety lasagna, etc).
-Vaccinate every eligible person
-ventilation
-testing in some form
-masks.
In person school is so, so important. Let's make it possible.
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Ahem.
(Mic Tap)
I have some news.
Book 3.
August 3, 2021.
Pre-order now.
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Today, I have to say I'm demoralized about schools. The prospect for kids of no schools, or online schools, or partially in person schools is really devastating. The consequences for parents/economy are awful. BUT: I'm struggling to see a way for many places to open safely (1/2)
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I'm in Rolling Stone!!
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This comment is not supported by data.
We should absolutely support parents' choices and make it possible for all parents to make the choices they want about child care.
But child care is not "terrible for children" and saying so shames working parents.
The establishment critique of universal daycare is that it spends too much money.
The better critique is that it’s terrible for children, and that a healthy society should make it easier for parents to care for kids. Spend money on parents, not corporate daycare.
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Universities should bring students back. It's our responsibility.
My latest in Atlantic.
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There is a need for real policy debate, engagement with what we know and do not know, but this just isn't happening here.
Also, although the pandemic has thickened my skin quite a bit, 18 months has taken a toll. (2/3)
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This morning,
@BrownUniversity
announced they will require faculty, staff and students to be vaccinated by July 1
This makes sense and I am delighted to see them do it.
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My kid has an imaginary baby
“Mom, where do I put the baby while I eat?”
“You hold it”
“No, while I eat.”
“You hold it and shove the food in as fast as you can.”
#reallife
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I thought I was dealing with election anxiety pretty well and then yesterday I made a new recipe and no one in the family liked it and I got up during dinner and dumped it all in the sink. On the plus side, I didn't cry.
#Vote
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This data should be enormously reassuring to people.
The best data by far on
#LongCovid
is out from the ONS
For kids, the news is incredibly reassuring - parents minds should be put to rest
Rates of common symptoms after
#COVID19
at 12 w for kids are extremely low (0% to 1.7%) compared to controls
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I really, really agree with this article.
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Even if schools are not themselves major vectors, there are places which need a more full lockdown like, right now. How have we let bars and indoor dining be open and are not focused on schools? Where are the resources? I cannot see an end, or solutions. I'm sad. (2/2)
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I do not agree with this statement. It goes beyond current guidelines. Masks outside, sometimes even in your own house for kids.
I think this is completely not reflective of a reasonable risk/benefit calculation in the face of children's mental health.
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This tweet really struck me because I think it gets so clearly at the residual fear.
Data-wise, this isn't an activity that risks the life of a 3 year old. Grocery store transmission risk tiny; child could wear N-95; child death risk extremely tiny. But the fear is real.
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I know everything is terrifying existential dread right now but: I want to take a minute to say this. If you just had a baby or just found out you are pregnant CONGRATULATIONS. 🎉
It is okay to celebrate this.
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I took down my posts about the mask study because, basically, this issue has become so polarized and I do not want to fight with colleagues about it.
Let me just say it's a great study and I'm so appreciative that the authors ran it and I know we'll learn a lot from it.
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OH AND DISNEY WORLD. I MEAN OH MY GOD DISNEY IS OPEN AND SCHOOLS ARE NOT AND JUST HONESTLY I AM MAD.
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TIME's list of the 100 Most Influential People in the world is out. I'm honored to be a part this group:
#TIME100
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A lot of people know me for my work on pregnancy, my books or my COVID work.
But actually my most significant talent is claw machines.
Today I won THREE stuffed animals at the Newport arcade on the first try.
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Happy Birthday to me.
41 in Earth Time, 237 in Pandemic Time.
Here is to hoping the next year is better, for all of us.
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I was feeling crummy tonight about...everything. But this made me feel better.
@ashishkjha
is really just so smart and thoughtful. We are very lucky to have him at Brown.
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This is very good. To put it bluntly, it is entirely possible to drink alcohol and lift weights at home, but it seems like it is really not possible for children to learn math there.
I've been tweeting about this -- but two great epidemiologists,
@jenkinshelen
and
@BillHanage
actually wrote about this. Thoughtfully.
Want to open schools this fall?
Live with having closed bars, gyms this summer.
I personally don't think its a close call.
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Until recently bath time with the four year old ended with the routine of him spraying me.
Last week I was gone a lot at bedtime. My husband taught him to shower on his own.
Five stars. Would marry again.
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I just taught in person for the first time in a year and it was really, really great.
@BrownUniversity
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Most people are going to get Omicron regardless of vax status. Contagion is just that high.
Gap in infection risk between vaxed/unvaxxed will fall.
Gap in hosp/death risk will remain.
Encouraging vaccination requires making this hosp/death our messaging focus. (1/2)
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I made my six year old the Zoom host in a zoom with his grandparents.
"I'm the host! I can do anything!" [manically laughing] "I'm sending you to a breakout room!!!"
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At least I know one answer to the Vox crossword today...
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Wildly unpopular and politically infeasible but: I think Governors should consider a short term total lockdown over Thanksgiving week.
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It’s okay to buy these and hide them from my family and eat them in weak moments, right?
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My husband's thing lately is complaining every day about how it seems odd that it is no problem for the world to deliver a lot of catalogs we do not want (latest: diamond jewelry, boxed pears) but somehow the same system cannot get it together to get everyone rapid tests.
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Vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines vaccines.
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Apparently the
@CDCgov
is going to release guidance for schools next year soon. Here is what I hope we see.
1. Statement that all schools should open for full-time in-person learning for all students, because evidence suggests this can be done safely.
(1/3)
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Obviously that Atlantic article was upsetting to many people, many of whom I respect and admire.
I wanted to respond.
My goal in the article was to help parents understand what many people say when they say children are "low risk" (1/n)
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School masking is the third rail of twitter, but I would encourage everyone to read this piece whether you agree with it or not. Among other things, a good review of the science on both sides.
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Today on
@BrianLehrer
I was asked if I was comfortable saying who I am endorsing. I thought this was obvious but in case anyone is unclear or I might change your mind, I am 1 million percent Team Biden/Harris.
@JoeBiden
@KamalaHarris
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From the American Academy of Pediatrics:
"The AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school."
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Read it. All the way to the end.
“I have no words to say to these families anymore. I believe in God, but I can’t help but wonder: Am I doing everything possible to open our schools?”
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My dad wrote me this: "Emily, I just read your kids and the virus piece. You are really good. I may be biased, but I don’t think so."
#Probablyabitbiased
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My husband and I are both teaching starting next week. The classes compete for students. He is currently drilling with flash cards to learn their names. I am tweeting.
I am going to lose
Oh god. Now he’s shuffling and doing it again.
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Sometimes I am tired of dealing with this crap, and then I remember there are junior women behind me. Cannot let up.
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Good morning and welcome to the first day in six months that I dropped a (fully masked, symptom-free, temp-checked, socially-distanced) child at school.
I know it is not going to be everyone's choice, or an option for everyone. I am very grateful.
@MosesBrown
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@ashley_gibby
I am torn between noting that this is TOTALLY BADASS and also feeling like maybe someone could have, like, subbed in for a week?
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Based on some of my email inbox, I'm already worried about vaccine resistance (no, the vaccine does not contain "government trackers"). Suggestion: all public figures should live-stream their vaccination when they get it.
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It’s fine to encourage people to breastfeed. Breastfeeding is great! But claims like “it’s a special bond” are (1) totally not based in fact and (2) just make people feel bad.
@AmerAcadPeds
please think about your messaging.
Breastfeeding matters! It’s important for the health of children – and mothers. In this PSA from
@AmerAcadPeds
, Dr.
@LanreFalusi
urges expectant parents to consider a plan to breastfeed their baby. For more, visit .
#NBM19
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