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Probability Exchange

@ProbabilityEx

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Probex is a news-driven probability exchange: it watches prediction markets and news in real time, then surfaces the most interesting mispricings and hedges.

D/FW
Joined November 2025
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
4 days
I’m getting real traction on this app, which is great — but I want to make sure I’m building what you actually want, not what I think you want. If you use prediction markets (or want to), I’d really value your input: Reply with the number(s): 1️⃣ Finding mispriced markets 2️⃣
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
10/ 2026 isn’t about prediction markets replacing anything. It’s about them becoming the reference layer people check when they want to know what’s actually happening. If you’re curious where this space is heading, keep an eye on it now — before the noise hits.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
9/ This is exactly why I’ve been building tools to track, compare, and interpret these markets instead of just watching price charts. If you want to understand why probabilities move — not just that they did — this is the moment. (For anyone curious, this is the token tied to
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pump.fun
Stop trading blind. Probex ($PROBEX) is a community-driven news and analysis terminal built for speed. We combine Real-Time AI Sentiment Analysis with trader tooling to find the signal in the noise.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
8/ We’re moving from “novelty bets” to information markets. Not vibes. Not punditry. Not hot takes. Just odds reacting to reality in real time.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
7/ What’s different now is infrastructure. Markets are deeper, faster, and more liquid than they were even two years ago. The tooling is finally catching up to the idea.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
6/ Midterms create months of live uncertainty: primaries → candidate drops → fundraising → scandals → turnout shifts. That’s not a single bet. That’s an evolving probability curve.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
5/ Then come the US midterms. This is where prediction markets quietly embarrassed polling in 2024 — and people noticed. In 2026, that scrutiny intensifies.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
4/ The Winter Olympics are even more mispriced. Niche sports, limited public knowledge, asymmetric information, and long gaps between events — exactly where prediction markets outperform traditional betting.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
3/ The World Cup isn’t just matches — it’s injuries, lineups, weather, referees, group dynamics, and national pressure. Perfect terrain for markets that update continuously as information flows.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
2/ Three forces converge in 2026: • FIFA World Cup 2026 • 2026 Winter Olympics • 2026 United States midterm elections Each one creates sustained, global uncertainty.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
16 hours
Thread: 2026 is when prediction markets grow up 🧵 1/ Prediction markets have spent years on the fringe. 2026 is when that changes — not because of hype, but because of events that force people to care about probabilities.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
17 hours
So what are some predictions for 2026?
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
2 days
As we suspected, this was a winner!
@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
3 days
This might be worth taking a flyer on for today. https://t.co/b2JwQUpWpk
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
2 days
Happy New Years! Let's make 2026 our best year yet. Lots of exciting announcements on the horizon! Stay tuned!
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
3 days
2,012 cases as of 12/23. That means there needs to be 38 cases in 8 days, plus there's probably a reporting lag. Measles is highly contagious. I'd bet yes confidently.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
3 days
I’ve been thinking about a sportsbook that feels closer to prediction markets than Vegas. No hype yet, just pressure-testing the idea. What would make you try it? What would make you avoid it?
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
3 days
📉 Market Impact Alert via @probabilityex 📰 "Kremlin Announces Putin's Re-election Campaign" 🎯 Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? ⏮️ Was: 20% ⏭️ Now: 0% 💡 Consider a strong NO position on 'Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?', especially if the price is above
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probex.markets
Real-time prediction markets intelligence with AI-powered news analysis.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
3 days
📉 Market Impact Alert via @probabilityex 📰 "Tether CTO Addresses USDT Depeg Rumors" 🎯 USDT depeg in 2025? ⏮️ Was: 2% ⏭️ Now: 0% 💡 Consider a 'NO' position if the market price for 'USDT depeg in 2025?' is below 5 cents, as this official reassurance might slightly reduce
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probex.markets
Real-time prediction markets intelligence with AI-powered news analysis.
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@ProbabilityEx
Probability Exchange
4 days
Still haven't figured out how to make the screenshot match the url.
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