Probable Causation
@ProbCausation
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A podcast about law, economics, and crime.
Austin, TX
Joined January 2019
Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes https://t.co/WPNFj4cJJt
probablecausation.com
Date: October 21, 2025
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There is, unfortunately, lots of overlap between those who go through the foster care system and those who wind up incarcerated later. What can we do to put those kids on a better path? Joe Doyle has studied the US foster care system for years, and recently helped conduct an
Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes https://t.co/WPNFj4cJJt
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Even if you haven't read Jens's excellent book yet (what are you waiting for?), you should check out this episode. Two top experts — Jens and @barryfriedman1 — discuss what we know about how to reduce violence in our nation's cities. A timely and fascinating conversation.
Bonus episode 15: @barryfriedman1 interviews Jens Ludwig about his new book, Unforgiving Places. https://t.co/zmaSIoUl6b
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Bonus episode 15: @barryfriedman1 interviews Jens Ludwig about his new book, Unforgiving Places. https://t.co/zmaSIoUl6b
probablecausation.com
Date: September 23, 2025
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Come for the "Breaking Bad" references, stay for the fascinating paper about how health shocks - in this case, cancer diagnoses - lead people to commit more crime. Perhaps we are all Walter White? Worse health means it's tougher to hold down a legal job, and long punishments are
Episode 119: Elin Colmsjö on how health shocks affect criminal behavior. https://t.co/TfG0Plarwf
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Episode 119: Elin Colmsjö on how health shocks affect criminal behavior. https://t.co/TfG0Plarwf
probablecausation.com
Date: August 26, 2025
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Una demostración elegante de que ocultar el origen de los delincuentes intensifica los sentimientos anti-inmigracion y refuerza los estereotipos negativos. El empeño por mantener tabúes en torno a diversidad no nos hace más tolerantes, sino que genera desafección y resentimiento
Episode 118: Sekou Keita on media reporting, crime, and immigration. https://t.co/T72LOny1OU
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I often hear discussion of how the media should avoid reporting a criminal suspect's race or immigration status, to avoid bias against Black/Hispanic/immigrant groups. The intuition is that reporting that info in specific cases hurts the whole group. But what if that impulse gets
Episode 118: Sekou Keita on media reporting, crime, and immigration. https://t.co/T72LOny1OU
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Episode 118: Sekou Keita on media reporting, crime, and immigration. https://t.co/T72LOny1OU
probablecausation.com
Date: July 29, 2025
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Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) programs have had great success helping at-risk youth and young adults avoid destructive behavior (especially violent crime) and get onto a better path. But often the young people who would benefit greatly from these programs do not seek them
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Episode 117: Nour Abdul-Razzak on a cognitive behavioral therapy program for at-risk youth. https://t.co/ipx1CCiZLV
probablecausation.com
Date: July 1, 2025
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Link to pre-order: https://t.co/cKBLiB5qGC
amazon.com
The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice
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Y’all, I wrote a book! The Science of Second Chances is based on my decades of work studying crime and criminal behavior, first as an economics professor and now as a policy expert at Arnold Ventures. It shares what we know from cutting-edge research about how to intervene at
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What are the long-term effects of criminal justice fines? And what does this say about Americans' ability to weather small financial shocks? Steve Mello uses data on speeding tickets, merged with amazing data on drivers' credit histories, to answer this important question.
Episode 115: Steve Mello on the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. https://t.co/nE9JzW7uP7
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Episode 116: Crystal Yang on accreditation of jail-based health care. https://t.co/gRoGnNqSl7
probablecausation.com
Date: June 3, 2025
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Prof. Steve Mello on "Fines and Financial Wellbeing.
Episode 115: Steve Mello on the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. https://t.co/nE9JzW7uP7
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Episode 115: Steve Mello on the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. https://t.co/nE9JzW7uP7
probablecausation.com
Date: May 6, 2025
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There’s more evidence every day that increasing access to mental health care reduces criminal behavior. But would *mandating* such treatment be effective? Many think not. Rachel Nesbit studied what happens when judges mandate treatment as part of probation requirements. And she
Episode 114: Rachel Nesbit on mandating mental health treatment for probationers. https://t.co/OAyOxHYorR
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Episode 114: Rachel Nesbit on mandating mental health treatment for probationers. https://t.co/OAyOxHYorR
probablecausation.com
Date: April 8, 2025
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