Predictive History
@PredicHistory
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Greatest History Predictor | I teach what you don’t learn in school | summarizing Videos and opinions of Predictive History 📖
Joined June 2025
Every civilization thinks it’s permanent. Every empire believes it’s the exception. But the pattern always returns. I built a library that reveals the hidden code behind rise and collapse. 🔗 https://t.co/tP0en6HiUl Read the past — before it repeats you.
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19/ Question for you: What do you think is the #1 hidden incentive in your school system — status, control, fear, or convenience?
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18/ Game theory isn’t about how things should be. It’s about how incentives shape behavior. Change the incentives… and school becomes education again.
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17/ So when you ask “Why doesn’t school teach what it promises?” The answer is: Because most people aren’t playing the “learning game.” They’re playing the status + stability game.
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16/ Students aren’t just learners. They’re also: social climbers, peace-keepers at home, tribe members, future résumé managers.
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15/ One more layer: every player is playing multiple games at once. Parents aren’t just parents. They’re also: siblings, colleagues, status competitors, survival planners.
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14/ And here’s the brutal part: You can’t reform a system from outside the incentive structure. Change is possible — but only by shifting the convergence point slowly.
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13/ This is key: a “game” forms when stakeholders agree (implicitly) on rules + incentives. I tried to replace the whole game. They didn’t call me a reformer. They called me a threat.
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12/ So what’s the “school game” many places actually play? •shiny branding + “white faces” •easy grades •a few showcase admissions •quiet cheating •high teacher turnover •constant parent management
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11/ Students want prestige… without pain. Parents want “success”… as a status signal (face). Teachers want stability + minimal friction. Admins want complaints to stop. Government wants no problems. Colleges want… tuition.
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10/ Reality check: in most systems, players optimize for: best outcome / least effort. That’s not cynicism. That’s game theory.
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9/ I thought the motivations were noble: Students want to learn. Parents want independent success. Teachers want to teach. Admins want outcomes. Government wants innovation. Colleges want potential.
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8/ And then I got fired. Not because results were bad. Because I broke the real game.
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7/ 2008: I built a study-abroad program in Shenzhen. Seminars. Reading culture. A library. A student-run coffeehouse. A daily newspaper. Admissions soared. Students thrived.
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6/ Here’s the trap: not all players have equal power. Students are the majority… but often the least influential. The big power nodes are: Parents + Teachers + Admins.
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5/ Game theory answer: identify the players. School isn’t “students + knowledge.” It’s a multi-player arena: Students, Parents, Teachers, Admins, Government, Colleges.
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4/ So the question isn’t “does school suck?” That’s obvious. The real question is: Why does a system built for learning produce anti-learning?
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3/ In reality, many schools do the opposite: •Students read less (even in university) •Attention spans shrink •“Collaboration” becomes competition •Learning becomes something you escape from
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2/ In theory, school has 3 goals: 1.Literacy (read + write) 2.Core skills (critical thinking, collaboration, communication) 3.Lifelong learning (adapt every 5 years)
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1/ Welcome back to Game Theory. Last class: dating. Today: school — the system everyone claims is about learning… and almost nobody experiences that way.
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