Position Journal
@PositionJournal
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I journal on my stock positions before buying. Mag7 Principal. Concentrated portfolio and evidence-based research. Outperformed SP500 by 2x in prev. 3 years.
Joined February 2023
The bear case in this article deserves honest attention because if the AI spending cycle corrects, $NBIS deployed $5B in capex into a market that may not absorb it. Empty data centers with hardware obligations are the worst outcome for a capital intensive business who's taking
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I just feel like we are one Andrew Dudum insider stock purchase away from short sellers needing a $HIMS teleconsultation
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Amazon Uber Volkswagen Who’s the next big customer of $RIVN? Bears always were tunnel visionned
I’m excited to announce a partnership with @Uber. As part of this, Uber plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian and deploy up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis. This partnership accelerates our path to Level 4 autonomy and supports our goal of building one of the safest autonomous
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3.5 million miles of road with hands free driving enabled Custom silicon chips designed specifically for physical AI An autonomy platform that enables their AI to be trained on huge data sets to eventually achieve level 4 autonomy Founder led with a PhD in mechanical
I have two medium risk, high reward positions I’m contemplating about which one to add to I’ll keep the post short because I usually write too long anyway. $RIVN - betting on American 🇺🇸 manufacturing, clean, reliable and loved cars, with self driving only 1.5 years behind
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$META bulls totally miss how slow moving large organizations are and how they don't deliver instant yields after a major pivot or strategy shift. Don't expect instant rebounds. Here's the real timeline most investors miss, speaking from experience YEAR 1: Planning, heavy
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Logitech their competitor, trades between 2x-3x P/S. I am not betting on an unrealistic return here with Corsair, but I do think a correct from 0.4x P/S to 0.8-1x is warranted. That's an upside of 100% to $11-13 per share. For a company in the turnaround, they're priced to
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As promised here's the $CRSR story. The bull and bear cases and why I think Corsair is mispriced at $5 a share (0.4x P/S) and 600M market cap. I hold about 2% of port in Corsair. WHAT THEY DO Corsair provides performance components, peripherals, and computing solutions
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$DOCU reported earnings Q4 FY2026 Results 1. Revenue $837M (+8% YoY), EPS $1.01 beating $0.95 consensus, free cash flow crossed $1B for the fiscal year at 33% margin 2. Dollar net retention 102%, this is the most important metric for a SaaS. It’s up from 101% prior year, but
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$ABSI Chief Innovation Officer bought 100,000 shares on Mar 12
🧵3/3 $RXRX + $ABSI or The TechBio Bet Recursion and Absci are a combined bet to replace the trial-and-error guesswork that makes traditional drug development slow and expensive. Recursion runs an AI-native end-to-end platform integrating biology, chemistry, and clinical
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$DOCS A key component for why I hold my position in Doximity is their proprietary LLM: Doximity GPT is a digital assistant that helps doctors finish their paperwork faster, simplifies complex results for families, and translates instructions into many different languages.
We just released our 2026 State of AI in Medicine report. Physician AI adoption jumped from 47% to 63% in under a year. See what else we found: https://t.co/gFWvC11lfx
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Maybe finally a fair shot for smaller creators?
tomorrow is a brand new day
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Bitcoin flat today while $COIN up +2% They used to be tightly coupled. Armstrong made some big moves to distance itself from being a pure crypto trading platform and instead be valued like a financial infrastructure company like Visa I’m ready for when @coinbase pops off 😎
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I hold a company doing $1.5 billion in revenue with over $100 million in EBITDA, $81 million in free cash flow, a clean balance sheet, active insider buying, and a credible platform pivot. All trading at a $600 million market cap and 0.4x price to sales Any guesses? 💻⌨️
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This post was the bottom. As $NBIS went from $140 to $80 or a drop of -42% within a month
Come face me, market man. See if I am afraid of your silly negative numbers. Can’t hurt me if I never sell. $NBIS
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🎯🎯🎯 🤓
People are worried for $NBIS? Let Nebius cool off for 2026, let them execute their contractual commitments, let them bring more connected power online and then we’ll see Arkady hit us with another hyperscaler deal in year end. Meanwhile, I’m buying CSP on the way down and CC on
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Most people covering $NBIS focus on whether the AI cloud business hits its ARR targets, but that misses the actual strategy because Nebius is running the same sequenced go to market playbook that took Yandex from a search engine to a $31B company. Nebius started with AI native
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57% of $COIN revenues is directly and indirectly tied to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now at 72K and historically increases even more in April Bitcoin goes up, Coinbase by proxy goes up. But if Bitcoin is coupled with the stock market and the stock market is going to go down because of
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🧵3/3 $RXRX + $ABSI or The TechBio Bet Recursion and Absci are a combined bet to replace the trial-and-error guesswork that makes traditional drug development slow and expensive. Recursion runs an AI-native end-to-end platform integrating biology, chemistry, and clinical
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🧵(2/3) $UNH is my small bet on a blue chip in crisis. UnitedHealth Group is the largest private healthcare company on the planet, running >$400 billion in annual revenue and covering about 50 million people. The bear case says it is a damaged insurer and will be sued to
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I haven't posted on these positions before because I consider them high-risk, high-reward and I don't want to convince someone on something that could very well blow up. But this is Position Journal, so I post everything openly A short overview on what they are and why I hold
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