Plus EV Analytics
@PlusEVAnalytics
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Actuary. Gambler. Pragmatist. Canadian. Small data specialist. Instructor “Art of Sports Betting Analytics”
Toronto, Ontario
Joined January 2013
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Anyone who doesn’t think the other 46 people said chicken is fooling themselves. Popeye the sailor man hasn’t been culturally relevant in what, 30 years?
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports
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Gonna put on a Jimmy G jersey tonight and chuck the candy 10 yards over the kids heads
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How Winners Win: A Framework for Breaking Down Expected Value – Plus EV Analytics
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NEW ARTICLES:
5 part series that goes through my process for building Bayesian models in
@msexcel
.
Start here:
Building a Bayesian Model: Part 1 – Plus EV Analytics
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You can’t say “we ban winners because we cater to recreational bettors” and then come out with ads that basically say “if you know sports you’ll win money”. It doesn’t get much more dishonest than that.
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Ha! It’s funny because we’re glorifying some of the most destructive gambling behaviours there are, betting money you don’t have and doubling down on losses. Hilarious!!
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Thinking of building a YRFI/NRFI model, giving myself 90 minutes from first look at the data to finished product and live streaming the whole thing. Would people want to watch that? Maybe during the all star break.
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Ref: “Face mask…”
Florida crowd, instinctively: “BOOOO”
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Who decided to call it “the Ben the bettor challenge” when “the tortoise and the square” was sitting RIGHT there
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Yeah getting limited sucks, but take a step back…beating a casino at their own game so badly that they kick you out? How cool is that to have on your list of life experiences?
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Over/under 60 days this tracking lasts?
New ESPN Bet show on at the bar and props for showing results of picks and seemingly tracking progress going forward?
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Gambling ads are the absolute worst. It’s far from the only harmful product, but unlike alcohol cigarettes fast food etc, these ads’ purpose is to mind fuck you into believing something that’s false: that you can use your sports knowledge to win money.
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Bet a “risk free bet” at MGM and lose, get a credit.
Bet a “no sweat bet” at DK and lose, get a credit.
Bet a “can’t lose parlay” at Barstool and lose, get nothing AND you’re (according to them) a moron for believing otherwise.
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I’ve locked down, I’ve masked, I’ve vaccinated. It’s been 18 months. “You can’t watch your kid’s karate class or visit a family member in the hospital because covid” is where we need to draw the line. I’ve had enough. Precautions are great but they’re not costless.
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Anyone who took 6 figures from PointsBet over an entire season either is lying or pulled off something incredible. They gave me $100 credit x 10 days as a welcome bonus and kicked me out before I could even use them all.
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I’m vaxed, wife vaxed, kids vaxed, haven’t had a vacation in 2 years, fuck it. South Florida later this month (as long as we test negative the day before). It’s enough already, take reasonable precautions and live your life.
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MATH TIME! CORRELATED PARLAYS (thread)
Roll 2 dice, one red and one green. Consider the following bets (fair odds + 5% vig)
Red die over 4.5 +186
Red die under 4.5 -233
Total over 8.5 +243
Total under 8.5 -314
Which full-odds parlay is better?
Over+over +880
Under+under -113
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My spreadsheet brings all the boys to the yard
They’re like, it’s better than R
Damn right, it’s better than R
I could teach you, but my file’s too large
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@KVanValkenburg
@NoLayingUp
At my arraignment, note for the plaintiff
Your putter’s tied up in a Brooklyn basement
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Pleased to announce that Plus EV Analytics has been acquired by FanDuel. Stay tuned for my next blog post about how same game parlays are, like, totally awesome!
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My new article for
@PinnacleSports
betting resources: “Toward a Theory of Everything”. I hope you like it!
Part one:
Part two:
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“Even money” and “plus one hundred” mean the exact same thing, who cares?
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You crypto people are out of your god damn minds. You’ve been able to pay for shit by tapping your credit card since like 2005.
I had to try this myself.
Paying for a cappuccino from
@BlissCoffeeCafe
with
@solana
SPL USDC - straight from my
@phantom
wallet.
Feels like the future 🚀
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I’m no expert on religion, but didn’t his teammates betray him and get him killed?
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Funny thing about originating your own numbers, you want to be close enough to market that your model isn’t completely invalidated, but far enough from market that you get some bettable signal.
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Right analysis, wrong conclusion. When playing a +ev game, variance is your worst enemy. When playing a -ev game, variance is your best friend - it’s your only chance to win. Playing $10 is better than 2 x $5. At roulette $10 on one number is better than $1 x 10 numbers.
Question of the Day - Is it better to play one hand of blackjack at $10 than two hands at $5 at the same time?
#lva
#qod
#lasvegasadvisor
#blackjack
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Hope we get as much cross promotion with ESPN bet as we do with other Disney properties. Give me Cinderella touting same game parlays
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Want to limit winners? Fine. To say you don’t limit winners and then limit winners by calling it something slightly different? Outrageous.
Cc
@iGamingOntario
@Ont_AGCO
who will undoubtedly do nothing about this.
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And, blocked. Here’s what he thinks about the people betting his parlays.
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Dear dingdongs: if you start betting unders instead of overs, you won’t have to cry for refunds when your guy gets injured.
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The “cash out or let it ride” discussions are tedious. If you’re asking the question, you’ve already lost. If you don’t want the variance, leave that last leg out of your parlay before you place it. It’s like pre-cashing out at 100% full value.
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Step 1 no outside food allowed
Step 2 Doritos $10
Step 3 profit
Cannabis lounges have just been legalized in Nevada.
Las Vegas is the new Amsterdam.
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NFL Season Wins 2022: Seeking Alpha – Plus EV Analytics
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Sharp Books, Soft Books: Inside the Sportsbook Ecosystem – Plus EV Analytics
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No matter who gets in, one thing we can all agree is that when the committee of elites representing one of America’s most corrupt organizations meets in secret to execute their vaguely defined mandate, they will do so with the utmost degree of integrity.
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Kids, do NOT do this
Here’s how l I’m betting the
#NationalChampionship
—
Washington +4.5 (-110), to win 1.5U
Michigan ML (-192), to win 2U
Over 56.5 (-110), to win 2U
Good luck, all!
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5-2 +7.15u. Same time next year
@beatingthebook
?
On
#ANumbersGame
@PlusEVAnalytics
joined the show and broke down how he focuses on QBs and coaching staffs to come up with win totals for the
@NFL
season.
@beatingthebook
|
@KelleyBydlon
|
#WatchNow
⬇️
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Anyone interested in learning how to price these? Limits are only $250 but it would be a fun math lesson. Would take me a couple hours to code, I’ll do it if there’s interest.
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Capital gains aren’t “interest”, and (5700/50)^(1/37)-1 is 13.7% not 28% but other than that, nailed it
Donald Trump passed on buying the Cowboys in 1984 for $50M saying he felt “sorry for the poor guy who is going to buy” the team.
Today, Forbes says the Cowboys are worth $5.7B, meaning if Trump bought the team, it would have yielded a 28% annual compound interest for 37 years.
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Don’t ask yourself why sportsbook X isn’t paying out on Rahm. Ask yourself why sportsbook Y can afford to.
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To The Extreme: MLB Season Props – Plus EV Analytics
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It’s cute how “socialist” Europe punishes losing teams by sending the whole team to the minors while “capitalist” America rewards them with draft picks and had to change their system to lessen the disincentive to try to win
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261.60 x 11 x 7.5 = 21,582. Now read the replies.
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NFL Season Win Totals: Two Easy Ways (And One Fun Way) to Find +EV Bets – Plus EV Analytics
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Horse Racing: Sport of Kings, Sport of Quants – Plus EV Analytics
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Thinking my next article will be about what I learned from my time building horse racing models. Is that something people are interested in?
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Introduction to Mixed Models – Plus EV Analytics
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It doesn’t matter whether you’re betting $5 or $5,000 - participating in betting markets is one of the best sources of real-world education you can get.
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STAGGERING INCOMPETENCE from igaming Ontario:
I received a DM from an Ontario bettor asking for my opinion on a dispute he was having with FanDuel. I heard the facts and agreed with his position, recommended that he go to iGaming as a next step.
Today I saw the outcome of
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Do you like paying 20% vig? Odds that can move against you after you bet? Betting against some of the sharpest money in the world? Then you’ll love horse racing!
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Assuming -125 equates to vig-free -110, chances are 1 in 265,958,954 of hitting 30 in a row. Now everyone is going to be racing to be “the first” when it’s likely that nobody hits 30 at all. ❌ to
@betr
for giving false hope and promoting irresponsible betting.
Microbetting site
@betr
is running a $1 million contest to celebrate its real-money launch in Ohio. Starting today through the Super Bowl, the first user in the state to hit 30 *qualifying mircrobets in a row wins $1 million.
*Bets: min. $5, at odds of 1.8x or -125 and longer.
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They should kick out the ceremonial first sharp.
There will a 10 a.m. ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate the grand opening of the new
@WilliamHillUS
sportsbook at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. It is the first retail sportsbook at a U.S. sports venue.
Link to live stream of ceremony:
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Keep an eye on this if you’re live betting, there are reports of bets being accepted at a different line from when they were submitted. Based on the replies it’s widespread and may be new.
I knew something was up with Fanduel but I didn't want to say anything until I had 4k proof...
You can clearly see that I bet over 152.5 on stream for $574.7 AND THEY GIVE IT TO ME AT 154.5 CHECK MY BETSLIPS BELOW‼️‼️
HOW IS THIS EVEN LEGAL WTF MAN 😅
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📣
Lots of people have been asking me for a recording of
#BayesianSportsBetting
Lesson 1. Here it is!
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Good example of Bayes Theorem here. What % of successful bettors talk like this? What % of hucksters and con artists talk like this?
Hi
@JeffreyBenson12
I just wanted to say that I’ve been in your sportsbook twice in person and tagged you and you hid like a b*tch twice.
I know you’re a little person / keyboard warrior but your salary is even smaller than your manhood. P*ssy
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500 years ago left handed people were burned at the stake for being witches and look at us now, starting quarterback on Sunday night football
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Don’t do this kids, especially not in week 1. For god’s sakes.
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P(Y|X) = P(X|Y) P(Y) / P(X)
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An easy solution for gambling ads: don’t allow them to say, or imply, that you will win. Want to advertise that having a bet makes watching the game more enjoyable? Go for it. But no shots of happy winners and no “making it rain”. Same for lottery and casino ads.
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+EV in the SuperContest – Plus EV Analytics
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🪦 my bet365 account
2022-2024
Was like a family member to me
Died a goddamn hero 🪦
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I’m by no means anti-vax, but “rushed into production to serve the re-election campaign of a known con artist” would definitely stretch my risk tolerance.
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Keep an eye on live NBA betting on Tuesday, there might be in season tournament tiebreaker implications that the algos will have no idea how to handle
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Wrote this a year and a half ago, reposting for new followers. Shows how +EV in sports betting can be divided into three distinct and measurable components.
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Dallas/NYG at -16/38.5 is wild for NFL. It’s the kind of thing you see in college when it’s like Alabama vs East Butthole State
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DK limiting me to $110 but letting me re-bet over and over. So, congratulations for mildly annoying me I guess?
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Yep googling every book’s house rules is exactly how I wanted to spend my Saturday afternoon
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Books have an airtight case for being allowed to limit skilled bettors, but if there’s one weak point I think it’s in false/deceptive advertising. You can’t sell your product on the promise of something that’s impossible to achieve.
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Now that we’ve mastered going for two down 8, the next frontier is fouling when up by 2
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Maybe most people aren’t comfortable taking that risk if failure means your kids can’t eat, Kevin.
I used to like this guy before he became just another “lottery tickets are the key to success, says lottery winner” d-bag.
Nobody forces you to work at Wal-Mart. Start your own business! Sell something to Wal-Mart!
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My article for
@PinnacleSports
betting resources! The real Kelly Criterion explained | Advanced betting strategy
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Caesars took bets on 18 possible outcomes in the Bills and Bengals exact win total markets, refunded two, pocketed 16 and paid out winners on zero.
#Facts
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“They kick you out if you’re good” would play better than “they’re armed with artificial intelligence”
@jon_wertheim
It's not middle-aged men in windbreakers, it's young men who have been lured in by online sports betting — gambling against corporations armed with data banks and artificial intelligence.
@jon_wertheim
reports next Sunday.
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Daughter is sick so can’t do the space tonight. Instead here are my top picks:
SF 5th in div +1500 Bodog
Phi no playoffs +200 Bodog
Det 80+ +850 FD
Tor most wins +1600 FD
Atl 104+ +550 DK
Tor 101+ +600 DK
o2.5 teams 100+ +155 DK
Have a good season everyone! 🧢⚾️🏟️
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The happiest person in the world that we’re all talking about overtime strategy and clock management? The guy on the return team who let the punt hit his foot and actually cost the niners the Super Bowl.
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Full text of my statement of claim. If you care, enjoy. If not, ignore.
Me v. Caesars – Plus EV Analytics
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Pinnacle is practically begging for chiefs and over money right now
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The dishonesty about limiting bothers me much more than the actual limiting does.
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Bitcoin holders are 1% enthusiasts who are passionate about the technology and 99% trend hoppers looking to make a quick buck. God speed to all of you but I’m not touching it with a ten foot pole
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Person A spends an hour diligently researching stats and handicapping games.
Person B picks a team based on which mascot they like best and spends an hour opening accounts at multiple places and line shopping.
Person B is in much better shape than Person A.
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Reminder that
@CaesarsSports
is charging vig that is SIXTY PERCENT HIGHER than industry standard and they’re doing this only in Ontario and maybe one or two US states.
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An Announcement – Plus EV Analytics
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“Is there really that much difference between +105 and -105” belongs on Mount Rushmore of loser talk, next to “true accuracy”
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If anyone was wondering how the whole “betting on the special olympics” thing turned out, a bunch of bets got misgraded because nobody could figure out who won and the actual winners weren’t even listed in the market, and now bettors are mad as hell at BOL.
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9yo math prodigy son found a discarded racing form on the ground and won’t let go of it, so we’re doing this now
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While I respect bookmakers right to limit and close accounts, this practice of sending individuals bets for “review”, declining them and moving the line is unconscionable. It’s literally theft, they are stealing information.
Guy is trying to bet $20.
Instead of writing the bet and moving the number you decline his action and then move the line on a fuc*in $20 bet
Then he tries and bets $10 on YOUR new line and you AGAIN deny his bet!
Wtf are you doing
@PointsBetUSA
?
#BeABookmakerNotADressmaker
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Caesar’s is ripping Ontario off, NBA playoff edition
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A few dogs win
“CHAOS!”
All favs win
“CHAOS!”
We are sooo probabilistically illiterate
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In any process with 150 million votes, you’re going to have incidences of human error and micro-level fraud (individuals voting twice etc) that could benefit either side. Is it widespread and one-sided enough to swing multiple states? If yes, show the evidence. If no, STFU.
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Oh boy. No personal stake in this one but will be interesting to see it play out.
$DKNG (short?)
Towards the end of round 3 Saturday at Pebble Beach some smart bettors parlayed the winner top 5 and top 10 finishers at the time on the chance the tournament would end of being shortened due to weather and the 4th round wouldnt be played
It seems unlike books
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