Peak Trading Research
@PeakTrading
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Industry-leading quantitative commodity research - trusted by investment funds, producers, private traders, and the worldβs largest commercial trading houses.
Geneva, Switzerland
Joined July 2018
#Funds are BACK and BUYING: Non-Commercial hedge fund traders sold a small amount of #agriculture futures during the COT week but bought back exposure Wednesday - Friday due to strong U.S. #export demand stats and the strongly bullish #macro mood. π Funds have buying firepower.
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π± #Ags this week: Investors are scrambling to own real assets, which includes #commodities. Wednesday's #Fed policy decision & Powell press conference will set the next direction for risk assets and the U.S. dollar. ποΈ Brazil gets light rain this week; Argentina is drier. U.S.
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#Ethanol futures have risen in 11 of the past 12 years (92% of the time) from mid-January through late April. π½ β½ π This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. π
Is it time for one of the worldβs cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? π₯
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πΎ #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of a quiet data week. MLK market holiday tomorrow. Fed policy decision Jan 28th. ποΈ Brazil gets rain this week; Argentina could turn drier into late January. Funds have buying firepower, esp. in cheap and oversold markets like
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SHORTEST in 16 Months! πΎ Hedge funds have big bearish bets across Grains, Oilseeds, and Softs #agriculture markets today. This means lots of buying firepower if there are any South American #production threats or bullish #macro catalysts in the coming weeks. βοΈπ
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π½ #Corn prices have risen in 9 of the past 10 years from mid-Jan into month-end. Chilly U.S. farmer selling + a growing Brazil/Argentina weather premium. π π€οΈ
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Fund Firepower: Non-Commercial speculators were -$2.3B net short in dollars (-464k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. π Funds have buying power if there are some South American #weather threats or bullish #macro shifts in the coming
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Real COT reports are BACK! π Friday's report was the first 'normal' Tuesday-Friday report since September and showed small net outflows of only -18k contracts (-$600M). π Flows were quiet through the end of last week, ahead of next week's USDA WASDE & Stocks report on Monday
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π± #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of U.S. Nonfarm payrolls data this Friday. The annual BCOM and GSCI rebalancing starts this Thursday and points to meaningful buying across key ag markets. πΎ South American weather is non-threatening. Funds have been selling over
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2025 was a broadly negative year for #agriculture markets. πΎ π For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans, driven by good weather, ample supplies, and aggressive global competition. π On the bright side,
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That's a wrap! π 2025 was a strong year for #commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.1%, its best year since 2022, led by large gains in metals markets. π Silver was the star performer, up +141%. πͺ©
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π β½ Will January bring higher energy prices? History says YES. It's a seasonally positive month when Crude Oil, Gasoline, Nat Gas, Heating Oil, and Ethanol tend to rally. Happy New Year, bulls. π π
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πΎ #Ags this week: The macro mood improved last week (SPX +1.4%), putting some life into our #agriculture markets. It's another quiet data week with the New Year's holiday on Thursday. π₯ South American weather is mixed (BRL wet, Argie dry). Seasonals are bullish. π The next big
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π #Ags this week: The macro mood has stabilized following Thursday's chilly CPI inflation print. Funds have been selling agriculture futures. This Tuesday we'll finally catch up on COT reports, with data from Dec 16th. Brazil and Argentina see light rains this week. β Seasonals
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π’οΈ Brent Crude Oil has risen 88% of the time over the 44 trading sessions starting December 15th. π Energy prices tend to rally from mid-December through mid-February. π Seasonals favor the upside. It's time for a bounce. #energymarkets #seasonals
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#Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed; the dollar is weak, but Crude Oil is lower. π’οΈFriday's COT data showed that funds bought a lot of Corn in mid-November. π½ Soybeans are overbought. South American weather is non-threatening. π€οΈ This week we enter the most *bullish*
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Commodity prices climbed again in November. π±π The Bloomberg Commodity Index - a diversified basket of agriculture, energy, and metals futures contracts - rose +2.9% ... following October's strong +4.9% gain. The bullish drivers: new Chinese Soybean purchases, snowy U.S.
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