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Peak Trading Research

@PeakTrading

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Industry-leading quantitative commodity research - trusted by investment funds, producers, private traders, and the world’s largest commercial trading houses.

Geneva, Switzerland
Joined July 2018
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
50 minutes
#Funds are BACK and BUYING: Non-Commercial hedge fund traders sold a small amount of #agriculture futures during the COT week but bought back exposure Wednesday - Friday due to strong U.S. #export demand stats and the strongly bullish #macro mood. πŸ“ˆ Funds have buying firepower.
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
55 minutes
🌱 #Ags this week: Investors are scrambling to own real assets, which includes #commodities. Wednesday's #Fed policy decision & Powell press conference will set the next direction for risk assets and the U.S. dollar. πŸ›οΈ Brazil gets light rain this week; Argentina is drier. U.S.
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
6 days
#Ethanol futures have risen in 11 of the past 12 years (92% of the time) from mid-January through late April. 🌽 β›½ πŸ“ˆ This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. πŸ“… Is it time for one of the world’s cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? πŸ’₯
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
7 days
πŸ“‰ Funds SOLD hard on bearish #USDA stats (-95k contracts / -$2.8B). Late-week buying followed on strong U.S. demand, flash sales, dry Argie forecasts, and bullish January seasonals. Specs remain mostly short #ags, with buying firepower if bullish catalysts persist. 🌾 πŸ’ͺ🏼
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
7 days
🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of a quiet data week. MLK market holiday tomorrow. Fed policy decision Jan 28th. πŸ›οΈ Brazil gets rain this week; Argentina could turn drier into late January. Funds have buying firepower, esp. in cheap and oversold markets like
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
8 days
SHORTEST in 16 Months! 🌾 Hedge funds have big bearish bets across Grains, Oilseeds, and Softs #agriculture markets today. This means lots of buying firepower if there are any South American #production threats or bullish #macro catalysts in the coming weeks. β˜€οΈπŸ“ˆ
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
14 days
#Ags this week: The #macro mood is bullish, with Crude Oil and stock markets higher to start 2026. πŸ›’οΈ Monday's #WASDE report is expected to cut Corn and Soy production. 🌽 S.A. weather looks favorable. β˜” Seasonals are bullish for Corn, Wheat, and Sugar, bearish for Milk. πŸ„
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
15 days
🌽 #Corn prices have risen in 9 of the past 10 years from mid-Jan into month-end. Chilly U.S. farmer selling + a growing Brazil/Argentina weather premium. πŸ“ˆ 🌀️
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
15 days
Fund Firepower: Non-Commercial speculators were -$2.3B net short in dollars (-464k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. πŸ“Š Funds have buying power if there are some South American #weather threats or bullish #macro shifts in the coming
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
15 days
Real COT reports are BACK! πŸ“Š Friday's report was the first 'normal' Tuesday-Friday report since September and showed small net outflows of only -18k contracts (-$600M). πŸ“‰ Flows were quiet through the end of last week, ahead of next week's USDA WASDE & Stocks report on Monday
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
21 days
🌱 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of U.S. Nonfarm payrolls data this Friday. The annual BCOM and GSCI rebalancing starts this Thursday and points to meaningful buying across key ag markets. 🌾 South American weather is non-threatening. Funds have been selling over
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
24 days
2025 was a broadly negative year for #agriculture markets. 🌾 πŸ“‰ For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans, driven by good weather, ample supplies, and aggressive global competition. 🌍 On the bright side,
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
24 days
That's a wrap! πŸŽ‰ 2025 was a strong year for #commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.1%, its best year since 2022, led by large gains in metals markets. πŸ“ˆ Silver was the star performer, up +141%. πŸͺ©
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
25 days
πŸ“ˆ β›½ Will January bring higher energy prices? History says YES. It's a seasonally positive month when Crude Oil, Gasoline, Nat Gas, Heating Oil, and Ethanol tend to rally. Happy New Year, bulls. πŸ‚ πŸŽ‰
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
28 days
🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood improved last week (SPX +1.4%), putting some life into our #agriculture markets. It's another quiet data week with the New Year's holiday on Thursday. πŸ₯‚ South American weather is mixed (BRL wet, Argie dry). Seasonals are bullish. πŸ“ˆ The next big
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
1 month
πŸŽ„ #Ags this week: The macro mood has stabilized following Thursday's chilly CPI inflation print. Funds have been selling agriculture futures. This Tuesday we'll finally catch up on COT reports, with data from Dec 16th. Brazil and Argentina see light rains this week. β˜” Seasonals
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
1 month
πŸ›’οΈ Brent Crude Oil has risen 88% of the time over the 44 trading sessions starting December 15th. πŸ“ˆ Energy prices tend to rally from mid-December through mid-February. πŸ“Š Seasonals favor the upside. It's time for a bounce. #energymarkets #seasonals
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
1 month
#Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed; the dollar is weak, but Crude Oil is lower. πŸ›’οΈFriday's COT data showed that funds bought a lot of Corn in mid-November. 🌽 Soybeans are overbought. South American weather is non-threatening. 🌀️ This week we enter the most *bullish*
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
2 months
🌱 #Ags this week: The #macro mood is bullish ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy decision (96% odds of a cut), but the Brazilian real is weak against the U.S. dollar. πŸ›οΈ The December #WASDE report (Tuesday) rarely features U.S. production changes. πŸ“Š Friday's #COT data showed that
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@PeakTrading
Peak Trading Research
2 months
Commodity prices climbed again in November. πŸŒ±πŸ“ˆ The Bloomberg Commodity Index - a diversified basket of agriculture, energy, and metals futures contracts - rose +2.9% ... following October's strong +4.9% gain. The bullish drivers: new Chinese Soybean purchases, snowy U.S.
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