Patrick T. Brown
@PatrickTBrown31
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Head of Climate Analytics @IBKR; Adjunct faculty (lecturer) in Energy Policy & Climate @JohnsHopkins; Sr. Fellow @TheBTI
Raleigh, NC
Joined August 2015
Prediction markets can represent the best collective knowledge about our energy and climate future.
interactivebrokers.com
Prediction markets can represent the best collective knowledge about our energy and climate future.
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Interesting evaluation of using data from prediction markets to assess national security threats
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US Severe Weather Prediction Market [1] Update:. Above: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Yearly Cumulative Storm Report Counts [2]. Grey lines are individual years from 2007 to 2022. The red line is 2025 with an end-of-year prediction from a simple statistical model. US tornado
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This Business Insurance article [1] states that commercial insurers and reinsurers managed the large natural catastrophe losses in the first half of 2025 without major issues. However, these losses also chipped away at a significant part of catastrophe budgets, and a single event
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It was fun to join our IBKRPodcasts to discuss whether prediction markets can double as insurance against climate risks.
interactivebrokers.com
Can prediction markets double as insurance against climate catastrophe? In this episode, Andrew Wilkinson and Patrick Brown of Interactive Brokers unpack how forecast contracts are reshaping risk...
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In the quoted article below, I explored how taking the NO side on major landfalling hurricane Forecast Contracts can add value to an investment portfolio by increasing its diversity and thereby reducing its downside risk. In this article, I explore in detail how purchasing YES.
Here I demo how taking the NO side of hurricane landfall Forecast Contracts can act as a diversifying asset in an investment portfolio. I show how their inclusion can boost returns for a given level of volatility or reduce volatility for a target return, because they are
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When discussing the intersection of climate change and insurance, it is interesting and valuable to observe the difference in emphasis and tone between mainstream publications like The New York Times (1) and more specialized trade publications such as Business Insurance (2). In
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RT @matthewgburgess: New post on a common logical error in public policy discussions (link below): . When social problem A has a distal cau….
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RT @rustneversleepz: @atrembath @lrntex Here's another matching set. <--- media take. underlying research -->. c.c.: @PatrickTBrown31….
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RT @lrntex: The decentralized wisdom of markets > a handful of academics with strong incentives to make the most catastrophic claims possib….
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The dynamic where media reporting on research is misleading and the research itself seems deliberately obscurantist is precisely the situation where prediction markets can be useful in clarifying our collective best understanding of where we actually stand and where we are
Left: What the media said about a big new Nature study on yields. Right: What the authors' analysis actually predicts. Climate impacts researchers are, once again, seemingly deliberately misleading readers and journalists to create a false impression. @lrntex
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RT @atrembath: Left: What the media said about a big new Nature study on yields. Right: What the authors' analysis actually predicts. C….
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“This sounds not great until you remember that background yield trends are very great.”. Also great is this entire analysis by @lrntex and @atrembath.
In which me and @atrembath LARP as @PatrickTBrown31 to explain that the big new Nature study doesn't say what the authors or media say it does. What does it actually say?🧵.
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Also, on this note, "Mamdani Holds a Commanding Lead in The IBKR Prediction Market" from @JoseTorresEcon .
A new preprint research out of @VanderbiltU, Cutting et al. 2025: “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?”. “Results are in alignment with research on “Wisdom of Crowds” theory, which suggests a large group of people are often accurate in
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Here I demo how taking the NO side of hurricane landfall Forecast Contracts can act as a diversifying asset in an investment portfolio. I show how their inclusion can boost returns for a given level of volatility or reduce volatility for a target return, because they are
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Relevant to point out that this is not a new research question or a new conclusion. Take, for example, this textbook chapter from 2013 from @JustinWolfers et al. "We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information,
A new preprint research out of @VanderbiltU, Cutting et al. 2025: “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?”. “Results are in alignment with research on “Wisdom of Crowds” theory, which suggests a large group of people are often accurate in
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