Patarames
@Pataramesh
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Open source (-only) military technology analyst. Iran, Middle East, Russia, China, North Korea, Israel Geopolitics, nuclear war and behind the scene strategies
Its NOT Gen Hajizadehs account
Joined October 2016
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Depending on how successful Hamas & Islamic Jihad are, this would be the escalation sequence:
1. Hezbollah gets involved from opposite north
2. Syrian front would be opened
3. Iraqi drone/missile strikes
4. Yemeni drone/missile strikes
5. Iranian drone/missile strikes
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I mean, 🇮🇱 already put it into a graphic how the retaliation against 🇮🇷 could look like & which weapon type to be used, if things go kinetic
➡️ Terrain-masking F-15I flying over Jordan
➡️ Popping up over Iraq
➡️ Dashing to mach ~1,5 at ~14km ALT
➡️ Launching two Rocks ALBM
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My take in the 🇮🇷🇵🇰 Iran-Pakistan skirmish:
1: Baluchistan, whether in Iran or Pakistan has always been very underdeveloped, more so on the Pakistani side
2: Such a uncontrolled region was ideal for states like Israel and Saudi Arabia to create proxy anti-Iranian groups
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🔴 Fist documented use of 🇮🇷 Almas-3 ATGM!
10km+ man-in-the-loop, high-angle-attack
A significantly larger number of 🇮🇱 assets at the Lebanese border are not put at risk by Hezbollah
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When you realize that Iran's supreme leader was standing with a Dragunov SVD in his hand for a reason
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As Shahed-136/131 have penetrated Kiev's air-defense and struck the city center, some facts about it:
- First seen 8 years ago
- Due to its importance, kept secret by 🇮🇷, never mentioned by name
- Officially shown 2021/22 (not named), by footage of large quantities in tunnel
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- Why would the sale of Su-35 to Iran be significant?
- What would be its impact on Israels F-35 and co ?
- Would a small number of Su-35 make any difference?
Some answers to these questions in this thread ⏬
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With the jet powered "Shahed-136", Iran may soon create a potent "kill-chain" against opposing air-defense
This hypothesized capability has 3 components with all required systems already proven
➡️ A thread on how it could theoretically work
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Important lesson:
➡️ If you are brave enough to ambush an armored column with RPG, you must also be prepared to be killed by 30mm autocannon and 125mm HE-Frag shells
Despite its propagandist cut, this video has several important lessons
The details explained ⏬
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NATO-🇮🇱 twitter bubble child-level explanations
After the 🇮🇷 operation, 🇮🇱 has become aware that instead hitting different parts of a hardened airbase, those "7" heavy warheads could have equally been concentrated on:
- Mossad HQ
- Dimona reactor
- Intel FAB
Who know, know
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As of now we have 4 confirmed 🇮🇷 MRBM models used in Operation Truthful Promise:
1: 20 year old Ghadr, with submunition payload to test effects on 🇮🇱 BMD
2: ~10 year old Emad, to attack southern 🇮🇱
3: ~5 year old Dezful, to attack northern 🇮🇱
4: ~ 3 year young Kheybar-Shekan
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The fist time Iran itself releases data on the Shahed-136:
- 2500km range
- 50kg warhead
Combined with the CRPA GNSS navigation system & low IR/RF signature
➡️ It might qualify as the most efficient precision strike weapon ever developed
➡️ Giving a "mini-strategic" capability
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As they say: If the leader does a visit, you get to see exciting things
Fattah-2 hypersonic missile with wedge-shape, high l/d-ratio HGV
➡️ Main advantage over Fattah-1: Better cross-range capability
But comes at a higher cost, for attacking future ABM systems like Arrow-4
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Lets get the facts straight here:
➡️ Iran managed to hit the airbases responsible for the airstrike on its consulate
➡️ It did so with a, for its arsenal, very limited ~80 missile salvo
Now time to sleep
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You usually don't take such hits and brag about response...
Only if your personal political survival is at risk
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"We produce them like cigars"
Volume production at Shahrud booster-production factory is currently for the Kheybar-Shekan/Fattah-1/Fattah-2 booster
Once production switches to the Rafee booster
➡️ Low-cost SLV or latent light-ICBM, as you feel
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Daily reminder that:
Yemen operates against 🇮🇱 on the level it does, because its far enough away from IDF tactical airpower
Hezbollah can't do sea blockade, as its too close to 🇮🇱 tac. airpower
🇮🇷 is sufficiency far away to support both, without fear of serious 🇮🇱 air-campaign
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Shahed-238 bragging to Shahed-136:
- Got my engine covered, reducing detection probability in IR and radar spectrum
- Doubled my actuators to 8 instead of 4, since I fly almost 3-times faster, with my simple micro-jet engine
➡️ Yet I don't even cost twice as much as you
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Gen. Hajizadeh after the 🇮🇷🇷🇺 deal:
"Now I Am Become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds"
😐
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The powerful impacts of 1 ton warhead:
It might be the first time Iran shows impacts on target mock-ups by heavy warheads
➡️ Emad MRBM already was at ~1000kg
Now also upgraded (MaRV'ed) Ghadr-H seems to have such heavy warheads
➡️ Destructive explosions
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Lesson:
If you detect an incoming HARM anti-radar missile... just switch your radar off
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What an epic-scale shi*show, provocated by a guy sitting in a glasshouse
That's what missile-centric warfare is and always was... Just some fools were unfamiliar with it
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Current 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 escalation state:
Iran may avoid:
- Getting 🇸🇾 involved
- Striking 🇮🇱 territory
- Striking 🇮🇱 embassy in regional countries
➡️ By giving 🇱🇧 Hezbollah, effectively, air-support capability to recapture Sheba farms
Via Dezful MRBM, arriving in 6-8 min after request
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Shahed-147 is set to make Iran the 3rd country producing a HALE drone (after U.S & China)
➡️ Main advantage of flying at 18km altitude:
Radar horizon further away, allowing radar detection of large ship from far.
Flight endurance is also improved up there
Some details below ⬇️
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Seems like Hezbollah used higher-end weapons
➡️ Long-range ATGM for the first time
Candidate: Extended range Dehlaviye-2/Kornet-M
A 8km class ATGM is necessary, to hit a high-value target like the main radar at the Meron surveillance site
(previously at a safe distance to 🇱🇧)
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In 🇮🇷 IRGC-ASF classification:
- Fattah-1 is a hypersonic ballistic-missile (left)
- Fattah-2 is a hypersonic cruise-missile (right)
➡️ Main difference: Fattah-1 engages later with the atmosphere, Fattah-2 sooner
More details in this short thread
(1/4)
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- After immediate 30mm autocannon burst, two tanks, likely with thermal vision, start to aim and shot 125mm HE-Frag towards the attackers
- The damaged tank catches fire, which is quickly suppressed by the fire extinguishing system
➡️ The driver manages to safe the damaged tank
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Mehran system provides IRGC-ASF with a 320km range SAM
A capability that limits B-52/B-1 to use stand-off weapon
It also limits the reach of tactical airpower, since last air-air refueling must be done 320km away
➡️No more dependent on Bavar-373 to counter these threat types
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- Your opponents are airpower-centric nuclear powers?
- Your airforce can't afford to match opponents airpower via imports?
- Your industry can't yet economically build turbines ➡️ enabling building modern fighter?
➡️ Take care of force-survivability ➡️ Build mountain airbases
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Didn't know Gen. Zahedi prior to today
But this photo with Nasrallah, Soleymani, Kazemi & Mughniye shows that this time 🇮🇱 probably hit someone important
Possibilities for low-risk response would would be strikes against:
🇮🇱 Consulate in 🇦🇿
🇮🇱 Consulate in 🇧🇭
🇮🇱 Consulate in 🇯🇴
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Like as if Israel's missile-defense could take many more such sized salvos...
And like as if Iran hasn't probably 100 times such salvos in reserve....
What a mess is about to start...
⚡️Hebrew Media: The Cabinet approves the implementation of a strong response on Iranian soil
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Is there some kind of military-aid mafia that allows only 🇩🇪-made Leopard-2s send out to fight but spares Challanger-2 & Abrams for PR ?!
Just one destroyed Challanger-2 on 🇺🇸🇬🇧 side
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Missile-expert-mode off
Radar-expert-mode on
The supposed production variant of 🇮🇷 Bavar-373 air- and missile-defense system should have an AESA engagement radar on its (folded) mast
➡️ Assumed generators on the cabin have turned out to be heat-exchangers of the cooling system
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Fair exchange of capabilities?
🇮🇷 Shahed-131/136 long-range suicide drone
↔️
🇷🇺 Sub-metric optical reconnaissance satellite
🇮🇷 (?) Fateh-110 precision-strike, (low-cost = mass strike) SRBM
↔️
🇷🇺 (?) Su-35 regional-reach 4,5++ fighter, potentially with long-range AAM R-37
⬇️
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Whether Kheybar-Shekan or Emad:
Iran:
High-g force surviving inertial measurement system mastered
➡️ Evasive MaRV unlocked
🇮🇷 Iranian 'Kheybar Shekan' ballistic missile carries out an evasive maneuvre in its final stage
Clear display of Iran's missile technology.
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This will be the first example of what modern high-intensity warfare looks like.
Many bubbles and PR-myths in NATO circles will be bust.
#ballistic_missile
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Yemen is a completely asymmetric force
➡️ All important assets fit on a truck & are mobile
➡️ Most systems can be stored without further support systems & hence dispersed
➡️ No "volume systems" like artillery with large ammo depots
No runways/ships/radar sites
Nothing central
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Stand-off 🇮🇱 F-35 detection:
Once I said IRGC-ASF's Ghadir early-warning radar can detect a F-35 at ~700km distance
My reasoning was not it being a over-horizon radar
➡️ But its stationing at nearly 2200m altitude on a mountain
PLUS: Its 6m wavelength on its huge array
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Weapon systems not unveiled yet:
Next generation 🇮🇷 "Guerrilla" air-defense
➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)
Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique
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- A tank seldom remains undamaged by a side RPG hit. Two of the crew quickly escape the tank, while the driver stays
- BMP-2 quickly engages the attackers, but then all IFV and APC quickly retreat into safe positions and tanks position their frontal armor towards the attackers
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Then it was a remarkably small salvo
Quite some went through and quite a large amount of BMD interceptors spent...
🇮🇷 Capability displayed
Iran has launched a second salvo of 70 missiles toward Israel, First salvo was 80 missiles per a senior US official.
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🇮🇷 Revenge options 2:
Mass-numbers of low-cost Dezful & Qiam-2 ballistic missile, could be used to strike Israeli military infrastructure in occupied Golan 🇸🇾
Just the right range (1000km), lower-end weapons of 🇮🇷 BM arsenal
Problem: Israel would retaliate against nearby Syria
Didn't know Gen. Zahedi prior to today
But this photo with Nasrallah, Soleymani, Kazemi & Mughniye shows that this time 🇮🇱 probably hit someone important
Possibilities for low-risk response would would be strikes against:
🇮🇱 Consulate in 🇦🇿
🇮🇱 Consulate in 🇧🇭
🇮🇱 Consulate in 🇯🇴
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No 🇮🇷 Ghadr-F/Toufan yet
No 🇮🇷 Shahed-136 yet
No 🇮🇷 Qods-4 yet
Instead, lower-cost lightweights targeting 🇮🇱 Eilat:
Samad drones
Qiam/Rezvan/Burkan variants
Qods-2/3
➡️ Clearly, 🇾🇪 Ansarallah is constraining itself for now
عمليات مشتركة للقوة الصاروخية اليمنية وسلاح الجو المسير على أهداف في عمق الكيان الإسرائيلي في فلسطين
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🇮🇱 Ballistic-missile defenses
🆚
🇮🇷 Ballistic-missile
Arrow-3 effective against:
- Shahab-3
- Ghadr *
- Emad *
-Sejil-2 *
- Dezful
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan
- Khorramshahr-2 *
*(if decoys/chaff/ other pen-aids discriminated by AN-TPY-2)
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Iranian leader Khamenei fears that Israel will intercept missile & drone attack, then launch massive strikes on strategic targets in Iran; Tehran still considering its options, report says. via
@MaarivOnline
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Ingenious decisions Iran made, which may change/changed the course of global warfare?
Not chasing high-end solutions but commercial-source ones
Copies of:
➡️ Limbach 550 motor for loitering munitions, drones
➡️ PBS TJ-100 jet engines for low cost cruise-missiles and jet-drones
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Yemen is so far away from Israel, that 🇮🇱 tactical airpower will have severe problems to generate a significant amount of sorties
Payloads would be low, and costs high
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1400km
That's the range Iran has determined needed to neutralize all U.S tactical, and regional airpower
➡️ 4 very-low-cost weapons have been developed to create the massive firepower
1: Shahed-131 "prop-CM"
2: Rezvan "super-Scud" MRBM
3: Pave CM
4: Kheybar Shekan aeroballistic
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🇮🇷 "Mahdavi"-class drone-carrier, a serious/robust power-projection asset for the IRGC?
➡️ Lets take a deeper look of its (future) potential
Q - Can it defended itself in front of western naval-/air superiority?
1/9 ⬇️
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🇮🇷 Arman SAM system detail:
S-band AESA TELAR: Apparently or the new active radar-seeker TVC SAM (Sayyad-5?)
X-/C-band PESA TELAR: Apparently for older Sayyad-2/-3 non-TVC SAM, launched at long-range (less losses due to vertical, non-TVC launch)
➡️ Both = dangerous combination
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Zoheir (🇾🇪 Tankil) anti-ship ballistic-missile
An advanced BM for Iran (shown 3 years ago) to send outside its borders
➡️ But a highly useful asset at Bab-al-Mandab
- ~500km range
- Skip-trajectory, evasive-MaRV
- >mach 3 impact velocity
- Very compact/small
- Relative low-cost
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Careers of 🇹🇷 Bayraktar TB2 vs. 🇮🇷 Shahed-136 in 🇺🇦
TB2:
1. Used for strikes in the first week
2. Survivors reserved for reconnaissance-only
S-136:
1. Used to disrupt 🇺🇦 powergrid winter 2022
2. Used to deplete 🇺🇦 S-300|Buk air-defense backbone
Continued ⬇️
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Joked about dragonteeht
Joked about cope-cage
Joked about Shahed mopeds
All just to later copy all of these
⚡️Construction of the 🇺🇦Ukrainian defense line in the Kherson region
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That time when Iran managed such precise GPS spoofing, that the American drone pilot actually deployed the RQ-170's landing gear
➡️ Believing he was landing somewhere in (then) safe Afghanistan
(This, or its was something more complex involving hacking the whole drone)
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Good job on Zirkon Russia:
- Axis-symmetric design to lower cost & shorten production-time (like 🇺🇸 Boeing HiFly)
- 3D Carbon-carbon nosetip to handle hypersonic thermal conditions
- Nickel-alloy (?) inlets that can handle high-temperature flow, decelerated by the C-C nosetip
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Climbing the escalation ladder:
With Iraqi resistance-axis groups now using 🇮🇷 Fath ballistic missiles
➡️ Anything less than a Patriot battery protecting each base in the region, will mean much more destructive power than the drones and rockets in the past
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Engaging a stealth/VLO target like F-35 is difficult
Just detecting it, much easier
How would 🇮🇷 Bavar-373 LR-SAM system perform against a 🇮🇱 F-35?
Based on data released by Iran yesterday and the USAF in 2019, we can now make an estimate
➡️ A short thread 1/3
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When you'r a 🇺🇦 S-300P operator and proudly mark your kills of Shahed-136 and Orlan drones
➡️ But suddenly realize you contributed to depleting S-300 missiles stocks
Thinking about all the heavy FAB bombs, Iskander missiles, etc. that could be stopped by saving some heavy SAMs..
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🇷🇺-🇺🇦 Day 6 map:
The high pace and siege on major cities of Ukraine is impressive
➡️ Russia often prefers to use legacy equipment and second-tier units
➡️ Somewhat low morale of a non-ideological Army, is compensated by the nature of mechanized and armored warfare, in QUANTITY
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Gepard vs. Shahed-136
S-136 has an exceptionally low RCS, without its radar absorbing honeycomb/carbon sandwich structure, its about 0,01m² (X-band)
➡️ With its X-band optimized RAS, it becomes a VLO object at ~0,0001m² RCS (-40dB)
But Gepards uses a S-band search radar! ⏬
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Either 🇮🇷 Almas-1 or Almas-2 ATGM were used here, not Almas-3
Its interesting to know that Iran claims a range of up to 7km for the Almas-2.
➡️ The Israeli original, in its latest variant Spike-LR/Spike-L has just a claimed range of 5,5km in comparison
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Much talk about Gepard, without AEHAD capability, as ideal cure against Shahed-136
Iran, the creator of S-136, also has the best antidote:
100mm automatized Saeer (KS-19 based), time-fused AAA gun, coupled to Swiss or Iranian made Skyguard radar
➡️ Better range
➡️ cheaper kill
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That one weapon (via 🇮🇷) that makes all the difference for Gazans
➡️ But not suited for front-shots against heavy armor
⚡️Hamas publishes footage showing their fighters targeting Israeli military vehicles in Gaza
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Given that Ghadr with sub-munition warhead attacked Nevatim air-base, the damage shown by 🇮🇱 could be that
~50kg at mach ~1-2 impact
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🇮🇱 allegedly attacked a Hezbollah-🇮🇷 airstrip yesterday, which it avoided until now
➡️ 🇮🇷 "Unlocked" Almas-3 for Hezbollah just hours later
🇮🇷 Green-lighted escalation to Dehlaviye-3 (Kornet-M) 8km range ATGM just weeks ago
➡️ New ATGM kill-zone = 10km
⚡️MUST WATCH: Hezbollah published a video showing the operation that targeted a spy dome at the Jal al-Alam IOF site with “special missile weapons”.
The missile recorded its flight path up to the dome up and till the moment of its impact 🔻
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I mean... everyone knew Iran equipped Hamas & Islamic Jihad to such a capability
But Netanyahu still played his cards hard
"We detect any small rocket launcher, anywhere"
Myths created, and now reality
➡️ Geopolitically, this is the smallest element 🇮🇷 had playing in its favor
🇵🇸🇮🇱 A fuel storage facility in Israel has been destroyed.
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In 2009 Iran got its hand on a British Bladerunner 51 fastboat
In 2023 Iran made a Bladerunner based fast-boat
➡️ The first air-defense fastboat in the world
Apparently with 5 x 4 = 20 Navab short-range VLS SAM
Likely with the previously known X-band AESA multifunction radar
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Defending against saturation attacks:
9th Dey SAM of the 3rd Khordad system previously used command-guided SAM.
➡️ A new variant of it adds an IIR seeker to that.
For more demanding targets.
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Lesson:
When a conventional military 🇮🇷 faces two nuclear powers 🇺🇸 🇮🇱, make sure you have the sufficient mass of firepower stored in deep, nuclear-hardened mountain-tunnel
➡️ 1000km range compact ballistic missile and heavy warhead 2000km range drones seen here ⏬
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First things first:
Iran is a very large country.
Its critical objects for a strike are deep inside the country
Iran created a potent, mobile, integrated air defense system in the last 20 years
Terrain-masking into Iran's vast mountains, means fuel consuming low-altitude flight
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🇮🇷 Shahed-107B -- Shahed-101P combo:
➡️ The future HIMARS killer?
🇷🇺 Lancet now reaching up to 75km is good, but not sufficient to reliably keep HIMARS at bay
- It also lacks endurance
Shahed-107/101 combo reaches out to 100km and stays loitering for up to 10 hours
Details ⬇️
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Their take:
"The U.S. does not supply their latest and best equipment to Ukraine because he is a traitor"
My take:
"The U.S. and the west delayed sending their 1st rate gear to avoid such scenes as seen below ⬇️"
Myths put to rest
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Kornet ATGM came as a nightmare for 🇮🇱 Merkavas in the 2006 war vs. Hezbollah
➡️ What are the odds Hezbollah/PIJ/Hamas having got a delivery of the compact Almas ATGM?
(fire & forget, high-angle "top" attack)
Ironically based on Hezbollah captured 🇮🇱 Spike-LR in the 2006 war
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Evolution of 🇮🇷Iran-type economic asymmetrical warfare
1980's to 2020's
➡️ Likely we'll see more of it's latest forms in near future (ATGM & drones)
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🔴 My deep article about Iran weapons of choice during the ongoing retaliation strike
⬇️
(Split into 11 tweets)
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However, despite different opinions: Iran's demonstrative Operation True Promise has shown that Iran could neutralize operation capability of all main Israeli air bases with its ballistic missile force
➡️ 🇮🇱 can strike once, and hit 🇮🇷, but not meaningfully continue a campaign
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How 🇮🇷 achieved/is-about-to-achieve hypersonic missiles?
➡️ Via a single elite design-team, working since decades with a incremental step-by-step approach
- Zolfaghar ➡️ MaRV
- Dezful ➡️ "pop-up" MaRV
- Haj Qasem ➡️ depressed-trajectory (DT) "pop-up" MaRV
Part 2 next tweet⬇️
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Numbers imply that it was probably a good idea of the Saudis, to go for a ceasefire...
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Strange image of 🇮🇷 Fattah-1 hypersonic (low lift-to-drag ratio) glide vehicle "MaRV"
- No plasma shroud, no combustion/erosion products
- Very low signature wake
- Strangely uniform red aeroheating
➡️ Is it due to:
- Dissipated KE?
- Already combusted skin?
- Low-drag design?
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Now things make sense:
Shahed-139 suicide/loitering drone may have been the drone Iran sold to Russia.
These photos seem to be from Ukraine ⬇️
A Harpy-like anti-radiation drone loitering autonomously to find and kill the biggest menace to Russian airpower ➡️ 🇺🇦 Buk-M1
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What's makes 🇮🇷 Pave cruise-missile an effective weapon?
- Same diameter as 🇮🇷 Noor series AshM, existing tooling
- Toloo-10 simple turbojet, with just 1 compressor and 1 turbine stage
- Still achieving 1650km with a ~150-200kg warhead
➡️ Pave has a Shahed-136-like low price
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Two versions of a story:
Iran just successfully tested:
➡️ A all-solid-propellant SLV with liquid 2 hypergolic roll-thruster systems
➡️ Or a light, 🇺🇸-range ICBM with the same features.
Delivering a 250kg re-entry vehicle to ~10.000km
Well., select which version you like more
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2024 Qaem-100 "SLV" more ICBM than 2023 version?
Missile detail tweet:
What makes an ideal ICBM?
➡️ Being ready-to-launch and long-term storable without maintenance
It seems that the change of prototype and final version is:
➡️ Getting rid of liquid-fuel roll-thrusters
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The claim is bold:
🇮🇷🇾🇪 Qods-4 cruise-missile improved its range to 2000km
From ~1400km Qods-1 to 1650km Paveh and now Qods-4
Two new weapons after the Shahed-136, shown today: Both reach 🇮🇱 Tel Aviv from 🇾🇪 Sanaa
- Qods-4
- Ghadr-F/Tufan
- Shahed-136
➡️ Geostrategic message 🇮🇷
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Iran has the F-14 Tomcat in a similar size class as the Su-35
But the Su-35 is vastly superior in terms of:
- Range
- Sustained speed
- Altitude
- Radar power
- Payload
This allows to hunt down the almost always kinematically inferior opponents from high altitudes and speeds
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I would say not even Pablo Escobar, fearing an Columbian/U.S assault, would have built a mansion that robust
That Kurdish businessman would have to be paranoid to use that much reinforced concrete
At least 2 direct hits...
➡️ Adds weight to the Mossad safe-house theory
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Poor conclusion
Iran & Pakistan have rather created new conditions, in which they can strike each other terror targets.
Baluchistan on both sides is a quite lawless, uncontrolled region
➡️ Just that Iran's warfighting methods are more suited for sustained lowcost COIN operation
Looks like Pakistan just showed the U.S. and the rest of the West that Iran *can be* hit inside its territory. I hope this sends the right message to the capitals across the West. Stop shying away from a confrontation with the mullah regime and IRGC.
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Kinzhal vs. Fattah vs. DF-17
- First two are hypersonic weapons, but bad hypersonic gliders
Kinzhal uses:
➡️ Its un-seperated empty booster to create body lift
➡️ Pointy nosetip to maintain hypersonic speed after booster mach 12 burnout
Fattah uses... (2nd tweet)
(1/3)
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Like in the 🇺🇸 Ain-al-Assad, they again displayed their capability to accurately hit the runway.
This time at 1200km distance instead of 500km
F-35 hangars were not hit
In Operation Truthful Promise, there are certainly proportionally aspects taken into consideration
Initial low resolution satellite imagery from Nevatim Airbase this morning appears to show some damage around 31°12'15.7"N 35°02'19.7"E, which aligns with reports of a building being damaged. Not seeing anything else obvious, currently. Couple of annoying cloud shadows.
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Unusual capabilities:
A +1000km range anti-ship cruise-missile, with a heavy ~500kg warhead, concealed in a shipping container size dual-launcher
At high quantity, due to its relative low cost
(e.g turbojet instead turbofan)
➡️ You won't find many nations with such things
🇮🇷
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Surprise surprise! Hezbollah has the 🇮🇷 358 SAM!
Who would have expected that...
صاروخ الدفاع الجوي الذي اطلق على الطائرة دون طيار الاسرائيلية هو الصاروخ الهجين المضاد للطائرات البطيئة الحركة (كالدرونات و المروحيات) المرمز بـ 358 و هو صاروخ ايراني..سبق و ظهر لدى الحوثيين و في العراق من قبل الحشد الشعبي..و مؤخراً استعرضته ايران في احد المعارض العسكرية المحلية
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Iran's IRGC-ASF seems to have given it very high priority early on
Complementing the ballistic missile force in the regional theater (2000km)
Hence the expected arsenal should be many thousands by now
➡️ Typical unconventional approach of the IRGC-ASF, realizing the potential
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Plausible deniable one-way-drone doctrine:
- Fly from production country 🇮🇷, up to 2500km to (blockaded) front-line country 🇾🇪
- Refuel and be launched again on a SUV to attack adversaries 🇺🇸🇮🇱 out to 2500km
➡️ Up to 5000km theoretical power-projection and supply on demand
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🇮🇷 Irans new compact, 9mm silenced "Ak-103"
Smaller punch AKS-74U for SOF
➡️ Trusted AK reliability
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Interesting positions:
- Keeping distance from Lebanese coast
(Hezbollah anti-ship assets)
- Stay in northern Red Sea, not at Yemeni coast
(Ansarallah anti-ship assets and helping 🇮🇱 intercepting drones & cruise-missiles)
- Rule
#1
: Remaining outside the Persian Gulf
(obvious)
The most recent precise positions of US flattops in the Middle East, based on satellite imagery.
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A missile-centric force like 🇮🇷 IRGC
➡️ Can use many heavy precision MRBMs, just for an exercise and show of force
... peanuts
⬇️
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🔴 Exclusive:
Illustration of how an Iranian missile-city may look like:
➡️Published videos, allow to estimated how a missile city looks like inside
The nuclear blast hardened basing mode unveiled 3 weeks ago will likely be added to all new and existing main missile bases
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Iran's long-range strike force structure (1500km+)
(Air defense = AD)
Threat-level:
- No or low-end AD: Shahed-136 drone
- Medium AD level: Pave cruise-missile
- High-end AD: Emad MaRV BM
- Low-end ABM: Kheybar Shekan glide-MaRV
- High-end ABM: Yet unknown hypersonic HGV-BM
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