Are you genuinely worried about the gambling tax changes in Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill?.

@12Xpert I know you have proved that Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, and BetVictor can't be used to find value on Pinnacle but have you ever looked at whether a market average could be used?. Also isn't true that if a simple market average was more efficient than Pinnacle then.

Very good breakdown @ClosingDime , the worst case scenario is certainly very ugly but here's 5 potential ways cap on loss deductions can be undone or softened before it applies Jan 1, 2026: "It aint over till its over" - Yogi Berra.

RT @PODTerminal: The new “Big Beautiful Bill” could seriously hurt bettors - taxing money you never actually pocketed. 🧵. In this thread, w….

🔚 Bottom Line. The 90% deduction cap will likely take effect Jan 1 2026. But full relief remains possible via:. 1️⃣ Congressional repeal or carve-out.2️⃣ Budget reconciliation tweaks.3️⃣ IRS guidance.4️⃣ State interventions.5️⃣ Industry lobbying. Stay tuned - bettors still have.

5/ 🎲 Industry & Lobby Pressure. Professional bettors, the AGA, Phil Galfond, and other industry voices have loudly criticized the cap. Sustained pressure could push lawmakers to carve out exceptions.

4/ 🏛️ State-Level Action (e.g., Nevada). State governments dependent on gaming revenue may enact tax credits or lobby federally to offset the provision - Nevada is expected to lead such efforts.

3/ 🧾 IRS Rulemaking. Once signed, the IRS might issue detailed guidance on how to calculate losses or allow more business-expense offsets - softening the blow even if the 90% cap remains.

2/ 🗳️ Budget Reconciliation Fixes. Future budget bills or reconciliation rounds could modify the deduction cap, since it was inserted via reconciliation. This is the most viable legislative route to overturn it.

1/ 👩‍⚖️ Congress Repeal. Rep. Dina Titus (D‑NV) is expected to introduce an amendment or standalone bill to restore full deduction of gambling losses, targeting the 90% cap before final passage.

The new “Big Beautiful Bill” could seriously hurt bettors - taxing money you never actually pocketed. 🧵. In this thread, we break down 5 key ways the cap on loss deductions can still be undone or softened before it applies Jan 1, 2026:. Thread ⤵️

Why is the logarithmic method so good at estimating how Pinnacle distributes its vig across a market?. Drop your thoughts below.

RT @PODTerminal: What is the best method to de-vig Pinnacle's odds?. Author of Monte Carlo or Bust @12xpert analysed 136,876 1x2 football m….

@12Xpert P.S. On POD we call the 'Logarithmic function' method the 'Power method'.

@12Xpert Here's the research paper (Testing the Margin Models Page 10):

What is the best method to de-vig Pinnacle's odds?. Author of Monte Carlo or Bust @12xpert analysed 136,876 1x2 football markets (410,628 closing odds values) back in 2017 to answer that question. The closer to 0% yield, the better the method ⤵️

RT @7SergioC: 📈 How to Make Money Using a Positive Expected Value (+EV) Betting Strategy. 1) Learn the basic sharp betting concepts….