Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy
@PJACaytonPhD
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Statistician. True Neutral. 147. Public Twitter of Assoc Prof Peter Julian Cayton, PhD, @UPDStat @Official_UPD . Tweeted views are my own. He/They. 🇵🇭 75577819
Quezon City and Pateros, NCR
Joined March 2020
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Hi, good visitor! I am Peter Julian Cayton, associate professor in
@Official_UPD
at the School of Statistics.
BS Stats, 2009, mcl, UP Diliman
MS Stats, 2011, UP Diliman
PhD Stats, 2018, Australian National University
Forecasting Analytics, Econometrics, Extreme Values
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Batanes is the ONLY PROVINCE with ZERO ACTIVE CASES, with the province having NO CASES SINCE THE BEGINNING.
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The strength of this image.
The weakness of this "governance afterthought" president.
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Uhhh Mamser, bakit may rifle sa loob ng classroom at paaralan? Bakit may armas?
At bakit militar ang nasa loob ng paaralan? Pwede naman volunteer parents o community organization...?
Pupils observe minimum health protocols as they attend the first day of limited face-to-face classes in Longos Elementary School in Barangay Pangapisan in Alaminos City, Pangasinan on Monday, November 15. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News
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Weird idea:
College degrees in Filipino
Bachelor = Bihasa
Master = Dalubhasa
Doctor = Pantas
Hal.
Bihasa ng Agham sa Sipnayan
Dalubhasa ng Sining sa Komunikasyon
Pantas ng Pilosopiya sa Agham ng Datos
Similar to Filipino words
College = Dalubhasaan
University = Pamantasan
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The NDRRMC alert texts for today are great. Dapat ganito lagi ang alert system.
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Wild opinion:
The Philippine Arena is an ill-placed location with poor access to the area.
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I recommend getting a VPN.
I will not endorse any VPN. Just get one that you think fits your needs.
Just in case.
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What makes a face shield fake?
₱70-M halaga ng pekeng face shield mula sa China, nakumpiska sa isang bodega sa BF Homes, Parañaque City. | via
@dzbbsamnielsen
📸PCG PIO
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Before Duterte became president, it wasn't this tiring to be a Philippine citizen.
Yes, Gloria and Noynoy had incompetencies and neither were saints.
But gahd, Duterte really take the cake of incompetence. He bombards people with incompetence in all fronts like an orchestra.
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Wild opinion:
The current Php 100 functions as how Php 20 had been used in the past.
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I tell you:
It's stupid to not make a 24/7 public local transport system in a local economy that has nightly or 24/7 economic activity.
Make it work, because a lot of people are working late.
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I hope I have shown to students how statistics can be used as a tool to protect the truth when others use statistics to lie.
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Wild Opinion:
Metro Manila has an "unofficial curfew" for some people using transport.
People who don't have cars should be at train stations by around 9pm, as last trains are available by around 9:30pm.
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Let me tell you this:
I am a statistician. Analyzing data, including sample survey, is in my business.
When I vote, never did election polls dictate my choices.
I vote based on my principles and who I think is worthy to lead.
I vote those who I think we need.
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Russia skipped a third stage of further testing of the vaccine.
Buyer beware.
Russia on Tuesday became the first country to officially register a coronavirus vaccine and declare it ready for use, despite international skepticism
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O, ngayon, sa ECQ, dapat:
1) STRENGTHEN CONTACT TRACING. START ASAP.
2) MASS TESTING. AT LEAST 100K/DAY. ACHIEVABLE WITH STRONG CONTACT TRACING.
3) EXPAND HEALTH INFRA AND PERSONNEL WITH RIGHTFUL COMPENSATION
4) AYUDA SA MAHIHIRAP AT NAWALAN NG TRABAHO.
PUNYETA 1 TAON NA ITO
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Unpopular Opinion:
I believe Filipinos should learn that any campaign/promise/platform based on "Ganito kami sa <city>" should be doubted as city-level works cannot be scaled to the national level.
The current admin should be sufficient evidence.
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Unsolicited advice:
People can say "Hi, sorry, I'm not in the mood for small talk, thanks!" and the crew will understand.
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So many scams… SIM Registration Law is not effective.
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I have said it once, and I will say it again.
STATISTICALLY, WE ARE IN DEEP SHT.
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Remember the people who brought Catholicism to the Philippines?
Yeah, they have divorce and abortion.
We are socially backwards as a country.
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And you wonder why Philippine-born scientists leave the country...
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Google has stopped giving unlimited storage for academic accounts (e.g., UP Email), reducing it to 5 GB/user.
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There is a surreal possibility that our country could face a Sri Lanka-like economic and political crisis depending on how the May 9 elections turn out.
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Let me tell you this:
Statistically, we are in deep SHT.
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Why are people naming universities out of dictators?
It's like naming a school after Hitler and Mussolini
FERDINAND E. MARCOS STATE UNIVERSITY?
LOOK: How the House Committee on Higher and Technical Education voted on a bill renaming a state university as Ferdinand E. Marcos State University.
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DOH has tagged me RECOVERED when I have not LOL
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Unpopular opinion:
Wearing face shields w/o face masks in variety and noon-time shows does not promote minimum health standards and are ill-conceived.
Whoever thought it's fine needs more neurons in their lacking brain.
Airborne particles can go beneath the shield.
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Ganito. Hindi dapat sila i-gather.
Dapat ang bakuna ang pupunta sa tao.
Vice President Leni Robredo is planning to convert her office’s Swab Cabs to vaccination cabs.
Robredo noted that not all citizens, particularly those in the priority sector in the vaccination program, are capable of registering online.
READ:
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Jessica Soho > Boy Abunda in terms of interview preparation and conduct.
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Wild Opinion:
Metro Manila needs midnight rail/train services.
But the territories in Metro Manila need to build a sophisticated transport system is welcoming and not alienating/dehumanizing.
I admit: mas gusto ko pa yung lumang sistema ng bus kaysa sa bus rapid system.
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I am sorry, but you are not qualified to declare "statistical impossibility".
The UniTeam camp is claiming that it is now “statistically impossible” to overtake Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) presidential bet Bongbong Marcos in the surveys in time for the May 9 elections.
READ:
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Lockdowns are empty without:
1) sufficient proactive contact tracing system,
2) expansive testing,
3) assured aid for workers and families quarantined or isolated for testing or for acquiring COVID,
4) rapid vaccine supply, distribution, and administration, and
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Yumul killing people is wrong.
Yumul's father being killed is also wrong.
Killing is wrong.
Thou shalt not kill.
People have lost their minds.
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Does anyone still remember the Cream-O hexagonal box with an origami-like opening?
No? Just me?
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Morning talk.
Asked dad about palay pricing, specifically to give context to the Php 20/kilo.
Dad got a degree in agriculture from UPLB, and had some knowledge about agri matters before retiring.
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Wild opinion:
Revision means improvement. Thus I hate the term "historical revisionism" to describe the perversion of our history.
Let us call it with its true description:
Historical corruption.
Historical distortion.
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As a commuter, hindi naman "libreng sakay for life" ang gusto ko.
Ang gusto namin ay accessible and available public transportation.
Unti-unting nagbabalik sa pook ng trabaho. Muling magkakaroon ng night at mid-shift workers.
Trying out the MRT-3 “libreng sakay”, with 3 weeks left till its end on June 30.
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Tangere employs a smartphone/web app based survey collection scheme that incites participation by gaining a raffle draw entry.
It is a non-probability sampling procedure with serious representation issues.
This approach is fine for market research but not for election surveys.
LOOK: Manila Bulletin-Tangere Presidential Survey Results from April 20-22.
READ:
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He is a dictator.
He warped the law of the land with the 1973 Constitution for him to stay in power and plunder the country.
Stop gaslighting and stop rejecting historical fact.
Marcos gave the response during a pre-recorded interview with Toni Gonzaga at Malacañang aired on ALLTV last Tuesday, coinciding with the President’s 65th birthday.
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There's local transmission.
Don't deny it anymore, DOH.
BREAKING. DOH reports 12 new local cases of the more virulent COVID-19 Delta variant. | via
@bnzmagsambol
More soon on .
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The Maharlika Investment Fund bill should be scrapped.
We do not have extra money in government coffers to even make the argument for creating it. Hihigop pa sa social security and government banks.
We are also in debt, for fk's sake.
Ang tanga ng pamahalaang ito.
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Pumunta ako ng MOA. Pauwi na.
Nagtanong ako sa guard kung saan ang Northbound buses mula MOA.
"Sir, walang Northbound po. 2 sakay po gagawin nyo; sakay po kayo papuntang PITX tapos mula sa PITX sakay po kayo doon ng northbound."
ANG TANGA NG GUMAWA NG EDSA CAROUSEL. KABOBOHAN!
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So he did evade paying taxes and simply paid after getting caught.
He didn’t pay those taxes for at least 16 years.
so, convicted criminal siya.
Atty. Vic Rodriguez, spokesperson of former Sen. Bongbong Marcos, presents to the media a BIR certification that Marcos has paid taxes and fines in his tax case. The certification is dated December 9, 2021.
@gmanews
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JP Morgan's clientele are Western investors.
They will assess PH as less worthy than neighbours.
In need of investors, China has always extended open hands without the oversight strings. Perfect for Marcos.
The problem with China: they compromise our territory and sovereignty.
American financial services giant J.P. Morgan dropped the Philippines to the bottom of an investment list in a new report released after it became clear Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. was headed for a landslide win on Monday’s presidential elections. ...
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Mga tanga ang dumedepensa sa gobyerno ngunit naghahanap sa isang pribadong mamamayan para umaksiyon.
Naknampucha mas maraming resorses ang gobyerno, bakit ninyo iaasa sa iilang pribadong tao? Tayo-tayo na naman?
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Wild opinion:
A transportation crisis is looming. As more workers and students may start taking public transport, more public vehicles with accessible terminals will be needed soon or now, not in the coming years.
And Duterte did not make commit to his transportation promise.
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Kapag mag-a-apply sa trabaho, tandaan:
1) Huwag sumipot sa interview
2) Kuntyabahin ang mga kaibigan na siraan ang ibang aplikante
3) Pagawa ng diploma sa Recto
Syurbol, tanggap ka sa trabaho!
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We are back to being the literal sick man of Asia, led by a sick man, with a sick population, and a sick economy.
I am sick of this.
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Opinion:
As a teacher of official statistics, I will describe Duterte's "economic legacy" as being:
> marred by long periods of episodic inflation and higher costs of living
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Wild opinion:
In my observation as a victim of heavy EDSA traffic during rush hour for so many times,
It's rich people that's the cause of many traffic events.
Not buses, not the narrow highway roads, it's rich people.
Sure, we need better public transport, I agree.
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Let me tell you this:
I work for UP.
In this time of crisis, I work with the UP Pandemic Response Team
I hope in my tweets, you know where I stand: independent and open data analytics for the people.
In my 11 years of service to UP, leaders come and go, but I work for UP.
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Tell me again that online learning is feasible for everyone.
JUST IN: Internet service providers Converge ICT, PLDT, and Globe are currently down according to | via
@bobreyes
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Price of Sinovac in Indonesia: Rp 200,000 per dosage (~ US$14.00/ ~ Php 700.00).
Bakit sa atin, Php 3,629.50?
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I know that the youth is our future (youth pa rin ako in academic standards <40 y/o, kahit senior rank na ako huhu),
But these youth from political families will be our nation's putrefaction.
House of Pabebes! Tengena naman Sobrang hirap na ng buhay Sa pilipinas talo pa kAyo ng mga OJT Sa professionalism!
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It is with STEM students not understanding social sciences that we get arrogant engineers and scientists thinking like:
"Code is law" (such a dumb thing!)
"Let's expose half of people to negative content as a social experiment" (unethical!)
You NEED social sciences.
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Wild opinion:
I am sad for the children born in the years 2000-2014, the Zoomers.
Much of their lives were/will be formed during the dark age of Philippine history: the Duterte-Marcos era.
Their education cursed by poor implementation of K-12 and stunted by pandemic learning.
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We've never reached below 44,000 active cases since March 9, 2021.
We've never reached below 20,000 active cases since June 19, 2020.
Our situation has never sufficiently improved enough to return to a better and safer life.
We simply accepted stagnation these past 500 days.
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I got flak last time when I said that our public transport has an unofficial curfew because service is very limited a late hours.
This "unofficial curfew" is bad because economic activity and life never really sleeps in our country.
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If the basis of loosening from ECQ to MECQ is economic rather than preventing COVID,
It just means the government would rather let you live and die with the virus than stopping its spread and help people not get sick or hungry w/ proactive, progressive, and sufficient policies.
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He guessed it would be about 2-3 times. 2.5 times was a good marker.
I tried to scale back the Php 20/kilo, and the farmer would only get Php 6-10/kilo from that.
That's unliveable for our farmers.
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Wild opinion:
I think some people (individuals, businesses, and government) should really just let work-from-home be the norm for some industries, firms, and jobs and should not force industries, firms, and jobs out of WFH setups.
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DOH: "As the country continues to ease community quarantine measures, the rise in the number of cases today may be attributed to the increased contact among the population."
Me: "WHY ARE WE RELAXING QUARANTINE MEASURES, THEN?"
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I checked the Sept 10 DOH Case Information Dataset for my status & my grandmother's.
I am still indicated as recovered, WHICH I AM NOT.
She is still indicated as recovered, in which she has died and her ashes are already at home.
Pakiayos ang inyong data system,
@DOHgovph
.
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Democracy literally means "people power".
Demos = people
Kratos = power
Senator Robin Padilla shared this observation when National Security Adviser Clarita Carlos talked about the many benefits of having a parliamentary system.
READ:
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Unpopular opinion:
Many Filipinos are so quick to move on but do not reflect on lessons learned, nor follow through on preventing the same mistakes in the future.
Moving on from Martial Law but no de-Marcos-ification.
Moving on from COVID but simply stopped wearing masks.
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Let me tell you this:
Mandatory ROTC and To Instill Love of Country
Mandatory ROTC is a dumb idea. The Reserve Officers Training Corps program, a program designed to train army reservists, is not for everyone and should not be forced on everyone.
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What if I told you:
We might have to go back to ECQ again?
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Gulatan na lang next year kung ilan ang COVID cases.
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Conflict of interest: brother is running for an elected position.
Sen. Imee Marcos presides over a hearing of the Joint Congressional Oversight Committee on the Automated Election System.
#SenatePH
1/5
@SenImeeMarcos
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Publicus Asia is not a opinion research company; they are a political lobbying firm.
Presidential aspirant Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. topped a recent independent and non-commissioned survey on preferred presidential candidates, according to a statement from the former senator’s camp.
Read more:
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SPLAT Communications is NOT a data analytics firm.
They are a peddler of unscientific "kalye survey" content on Youtube.
How could there be "statistical impossibility"? Where is their methodology discussion on the matter?
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Parang jumping to conclusions naman ito agad.
There are still concepts better taught face-to-face. We will still need classrooms.
Well, sa 2022 sana may bagong gov't na, including a new CHED Chair.
‘There is no going back’: CHED says flexible learning is here to stay
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Not really a political analyst but as a pedestrian I see that PH politics is far less developed as compared to politics in Brazil or any other country.
Our politics was never about ideas and ideologies. It's about who can gain more popularity and charisma from the crowd.
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Who you vote reflects your principles, your beliefs, and, essentially, who you really are as a person.
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Unpopular opinion:
We cannot "live with the virus" that can constantly evolve to kill us.
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DuTeRtE's cOvId~19 rEsPoNsE iS gUiDeD bY sCiEnCe AnD dAtA
Duterte’s COVID-19 response guided by science, data —Palace
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Let me tell you this:
We have reached a point that whoever controls data controls reality.
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I dislike the idea of vaccine prices being confidential.
It's similar to the selling online but the merchant says "Please send a private message."
Why fear disclosing the price? Incomplete information brings inefficient and uncompetitive pricing borne by the taxpayer.
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For travelers lang, ano? Hindi for those who need it, like close contacts and those with symptoms since may community transmission.
The Department of Tourism on Monday announced that it will start subsidizing free RT-PCR tests for local travelers, intended to boost the agency's domestic tourism program.
Read:
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Government should make mass testing a reality.
Government should make available high-quality COVID home test kits without prescription from pharmacies.
In fact, it is imperative the home kits be accessible as a roadmap for reopening at any point in time.
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The move to shorten quarantine periods and de-prioritize contact tracing and RT-PCR testing detection all sounds to me the abandonment of transmission prevention and the transfer of responsibility from governments to individuals.
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Let me tell you this:
Once you get your ballot from the election precinct and sit on your voting booth;
Nobody will know who you voted for.
Nobody can force you to declare who you voted for.
That's the beauty of the secret ballot.
You can make the corrupt vote buyer suffer.
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Scribbles on the DOH Situationer.
1) Infections have stopped declining.
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You can start by defunding NTF-ELCAC.
‘NAUBOS TALAGA ‘YONG PERA NATIN’
Pres. Rodrigo Duterte has assured those affected by Typhoon
#OdettePH
that he is trying to look for funds for their aid, saying that govt. coffers have already been “immensely depleted” due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
READ:
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Ang mga sumusuporta kay Chao-Tiao Yumol, na isang mamamatay-tao, ay mga baliw, tanga, at walang katinuan.
Direktang bardagulan na, mga tanga kayo.
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I don't get paid extra to tell you with statistics that our COVID-19 response is crap.
UP, not just Marine Science Institute and Institute of Biology, but the whole institution should push back against Benny Antiporda's claim on UP Researchers being "bayaran." The whole academic community should be insulted by that statement.
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To you who voted for the son of the dictator:
I smear you with the blood of the persecuted, the mud of the poor, and the feces of the famished caused by the Marcos family's atrocities. Good day to you.
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Bumaba kasi mas mabilis tumaas ang denominator.
Tingnan niyo recovery rate, bumaba rin.
Mga tanga.
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We are stuck in 37k daily new cases.
Testing is a ceiling.
Increase testing.
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Are frats still relevant in these times when nonviolent organizations can do better than them,
And when frats only propagate patriarchal systems and violent masculinity?
Natagpuan na ang bangkay ng 3rd year chemical engineering student mula Adamson University na si John Matthew Salilig matapos ituro ng isa sa mga suspek ang lokasyon ng pinaglibingan nito. Positibo rin itong kinilala ng kaniyang kapatid. | via
@jeffcaparas
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NASAAN ANG PUNYETANG DISKARTE NINYO, MGA SUWAIL KAYO!
Sa Market-Market ito, sa BGC.
Para sa mga maraming commuters, ito ang iilan lang na terminal upang makaalis sa BGC.
Wala talagang Krisis sa Transportasyon. WALAAAAA! INANYOOO!
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Tara, palitan na natin ito. Baka mamatay na tayong lahat kapag pinatapos pa natin.
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We don't deserve this treatment.
LOOK: Large volume of MRT-3 passengers and passersby crowd at the sidewalk of MRT-Ortigas, north bound due to the escalator under maintenance.
The MRT-3 personnel in the area who manages the crowd says that escalator has been closed since the other day.
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This encourages hoarding, potential wastage, and persistent expectation of high inflation.
DTI Usec Ruth Castelo, hinikayat ang mga consumers na mamili na ng pang noche buena habang maaga pa para maiwasan ang dagdag presyo sa mga produktong panghanda sa pasko. Karaniwan daw kasing tumataas ng 20% ang presyo ng pang noche buena habang papalapit ang pasko.
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People using the bus rapid transit should be on terminal before 10pm, because with long lines and waiting times, you risk paying the fare by 11pm.
People who own vehicles have no curfew.
If people tell me to buy a vehicle, it defeats the purpose of transport reform.
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Opinion:
Every COVID-19 death in the PH is the Duterte government's fault.
COVID-19 is a preventable disease that the Duterte government could have prevented.
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