“The potential threat of Chinese submarines to Tokyo involves increased activity near Japan's waters, which could jeopardize Japanese and U.S. naval forces and disrupt access to the Pacific Ocean. This threat is driven by China's growing ”

China continues to assert its sweeping "9-dash line" claim, which an international tribunal ruled has no legal basis in 2016. In Sept.2025, China announced plans to establish a nature reserve on the disputed Scarborough Shoal, a move the Phi condemned as a "pretext for occupation

“Scholars warn of staffing shortages in Taiwan military”

A “provocation” is most likely to arise from the belief that vital national goals or security interests cannot be achieved through peaceful means and require military action.

A Look Back—China's strategy of pressuring Japan seems damiliar ⚫ Posts expressing hostility towards Japan on Chinese social media ⚫ On Nov. 14, the Chinese govt urged its citizens to avoid traveling to JP, following incidents several years ago where JPvehicles were vandalized

⚫Plan to deploy missiles near Taiwan “steadily moving forward” ⚫China calls the plan an attempt to “provoke military confrontation” ⚫Taipei says Japan has the right to protect Japanese territory ⚫China's military has put out fiery videos

Ultimately, a “provocation” is most likely to arise from the belief that vital national goals or security interests cannot be achieved through peaceful means and require military action.

“Amid growing tension in the Taiwan Strait, Japan said on Tuesday it had scrambled aircraft after detecting a suspected Chinese drone off Yonaguni.” “We confirmed that an unmanned aerial vehicle believed to be Chinese, passed between Yonaguni Island and Taiwan on Monday,” JP DM

China has been accused of using such balloons for surveillance over Latin America, including Venezuela- BloombergCom.

The most likely reason for a country to “provoke” and launch a military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region is:

“Taiwan plans extra $40 billion in defence spending to counter China” Japan [ US-Japan alliance] will pay 'painful price' if steps out of line over Taiwan, China military says FF0001

“Japan has increased its military presence & cooperation in & around the South China Sea, driven by China's growing assertiveness.” ⚫strengthening defense ties with the PHL ⚫increasing military activities on its own southwestern islands ⚫to bolster its deterrence capabilities

(10-1-2025) PLA held combat drills around the shoal involving J-16 fighters, H-6 bombers equipped with YJ-12 anti-ship missiles and up to three Type 054A frigates.Beijing claims that these drills “firmly safeguard China’s sovereignty & security while maintaining peace & stability

The revival of Japanese militarism and the resurgence of Chinese military power - The US may face a difficult decision. However, These are all important factors in balancing military power in East Asia.

🇯🇵“survival-threatening situation” in the country's deeply divisive security legislation & linked it to Taiwan,Tokyo might treat as grounds for military involvement. 🇨🇳Takaichi's Taiwan remarks risk Japan “actively stepping into war” (Most likely) JP retract Taiwan remark means

as a pressure tool ⚫ Chinese state media warns of Japan's “destruction” & adopts a “wolf warrior diplomacy” strategy to play at UN Regardless of whether the Japanese Prime Minister retracts her remarks about Taiwan, the “Time Bomb” may be a...

“US & China's supply chains in the South China Sea, a vital global trade route that sees a third of world shipping pass through it. China's territorial claims & military activities, alongside U.S. efforts to maintain freedom of navigation and alliances, create significant risk.”

“China achieved a diplomatic victory after urgently purchasing US soybeans; Palates don't cheat.”

⬇️Severance of diplomatic relations/ DeclaringWar They might be able to control the situation before evacuating their citizens, but a larger, irreversible conflict could erupt next time.

A rare Russian flight returned from Shanghai via North Korea; does this send a significant signal?