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Novacula Occami

@OccamiCrypto

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Following
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Wall St/TradFi Refuge. Crypto Realist. Maxi ideology rarely survives contact with economic pragmatism but blockchain can change finance.

Joined April 2023
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
1 hour
For all the tweets from @saylor and his faithful herd, the reality is $MSTR has underperformed BTC, not only today (by 0.9%), but in the last 1 month (by 12%), last 6 months (by 45%) and last 1 Year (by 48%). $MSTR was supposed to outperform BTC, not underperform it. And
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
9 hours
The other update from @saylor in this morning’s 8K is $MSTR’s preliminary results An eye watering $17.4 billion 4Q loss A $5.4 billion loss for 2025
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
9 hours
$MSTR just dropped it’s Monday morning 8K. Again, they only issue more $MSTR common (2 million shares/$312 million proceeds) They sold zero prefs (again) Bought 1,286 BTC for $116.3 million and adding cash to their cash reserves (common shareholders paying the pref holders
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
3 days
It’s not the “asymmetry between fiat time and Bitcoin time” $MSTR shareholders should focus on. The fiat time should be the worry. The annual $832 million of pref dividends with no operating cash flow that is being funded off the backs of $MSTR common holders. The $8.2
@AdamBLiv
Adam Livingston
3 days
It is impossible to be bearish on MSTR when you know that Saylor exploits the asymmetry between fiat time and Bitcoin time by monetizing future claims in the former to accumulate irreversible position in the latter.
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
3 days
You have to admit, the $MSTR faithful write some pretty entertaining stuff. Not sure what “crystallized time” and “buy the clock itself” really means…..but it’s not dull.
@AdamBLiv
Adam Livingston
3 days
Michael Saylor is a TIME WIZARD. He sells soft claims on future time (fiat-denominated paper that decays by design) and converts them into hard claims on future time (Bitcoin-denominated scarcity that cannot be diluted). When the market offers him a premium, he repeats the
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
3 days
Bloomberg story just dropped reminding everyone of $MSTR’s prior guidance that they’ll be posting a significant multi-billion loss for 4Q.
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
3 days
When a CEO is pushing the trading aspects of his stock, not his fundamentals, that tells you something.
@saylor
Michael Saylor
3 days
Bitcoin makes $MSTR liquid.
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
4 days
This will be the next leg down…
@coinbureau
Coin Bureau
5 days
🚨BREAKING: Odds of Saylor’s Strategy being delisted from MSCI jump to 76% on Polymarket. The stock has plunged -66% over the past six months, falling from $457 to $152.
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
4 days
Since initially issuing $STRC in late July, @saylor has upped the yield from 9% to now 11%. And during these five months only sold $151 million of $STRC. This is telling you the fiat markets don’t like the risk $STRC. The @saylor faithful don’t understand that the pref market
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
5 days
$STRC dividends going up to 11% for Jan (in a declining rate environment) One reason? $MSTR hasn’t sold ANY $STRC since the week on Nov 10th. 7 weeks. Zero sales. The “digital credit” spin of $MSTR prefs isn’t landing with real world investors with fiat @saylor needs.
@saylor
Michael Saylor
5 days
Stretch goes to 11% in January 2026. $STRC
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
5 days
Hoping for a BTC breakout? Stablecoins are telling you that’s not happening in the near term. USDT is the lifeblood of crypto trading, but 99% of USDT holders can’t redeem with Tether. That makes USDT’s price a barometer of demand and when you see USDT trading at a
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
6 days
But for all the dumb BTC DATs out there, nothing comes close to Alt5 Sigma and it’s $WFLI treasury strategy. With a $1.5B financing deal in August to acquire 7.5% of Trump’s $WFLI, and Eric Trump as Director and Zack Witkoff as Chairman, $ALTS as set a bar for value
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
6 days
So anybody hear anything about the USAT launch planned for December? Crickets…… Then again, Tether deadlines are famously squishy (audit, anyone?)
@USAT_io
USAT
14 days
The miles feel longer during the holidays. Soon, you’ll be able to close the gap in seconds. Dollars that move without intermediaries. USA₮. Coming soon. 🎄🇺🇲
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
6 days
Prenetics, a $275m market cap health care company bails on BTC treasury strategy after 6 months: June 18: “Prenetics…today add announces it has become the first healthcare company to establish a Bitcoin Treasury” Dec 30: “Prenetics ceased its daily Bitcoin purchasing activity
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
7 days
On July 31, $MSTR noted in their earnings deck that they would not issue common below 2.5 mNAV other than to fund debt coupons and pref dividends. They have $824 million of annual pref dividends. Since that July announcement, they’ve issued $4.9 billion of $MSTR common with
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
7 days
Despite the @saylor Monday morning “orange dot” $MSTR has another day of underperforming BTC. From the July peak $MSTR has lost 2/3rds of its value…..ouch
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
7 days
I think @saylor meant “speck” and not “dot”as all he bought last week was 1,229 BTC for $109 million, funded by selling more $MSTR common. Buying BTC by issuing common isn’t a ‘strategy’ Even the most ardent $MSTR acolyte has to be disappointed with that.
@saylor
Michael Saylor
8 days
Back to Orange.
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
7 days
Last week @saylor issues just $109M worth of $MSTR common shares to buy $109M worth of BTC. Not much of an “orange dot.’ Despite the $MSTR herd shouting “digital credit” and lots of X ads pushing them, Strategy sells zero prefs last weeks. Issuing common to buy BTC is not a
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@OccamiCrypto
Novacula Occami
8 days
This demonstrates the naïveté of so many in $MSTR cult. Preferred stocks trade like bonds. Their price is a function of the yield the market demands for the risk they take. It’s not common stock and Strategy prefs won’t double in the next 12 months. And nothing in this sloppy
@BitcoinNewsCom
Bitcoin News
8 days
Citigroup reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on Strategy’s $STRD Preferred Stock, with an average $241.56 price target implying 209.69% upside from its latest $78 close.
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