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US core inflation rose 0.3% in July — the fastest pace this year — but tariff-exposed goods didn’t spike as much as previously feared. Markets now see higher odds of a Fed rate cut in September.
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Yesterday Wall St ended the week strong as Nasdaq hit record highs for a second day, led by tech optimism and hopes for rate cuts. Softer US data boosted expectations of a Sept. cut <90% priced in>. Nikkei futures neared record highs, with AI valuations still carrying a premium.
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8/8.So where does this leave us?. The Fed is caught between political pressure, tariff-driven inflation uncertainty, and a mixed economic outlook.
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7/8.Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is still growing. Q2 GDP is expected to surpass $30 trillion (nominal), and retail sales remain solid — even if household balances are slightly lower YoY.
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6/8.Their view?.Tariffs won’t drive long-term inflation. They’re more concerned about slowing private-sector hiring, and believe a rate cut could head off potential layoffs.
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5/8.Two Fed governors — Waller and Bowman, both Trump appointees — may dissent in favor of a 25bps cut. That would be the first double dissent at the Fed since 1993. 👀.
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4/8.Inflation recently ticked up to 3.5% YoY in June, driven by rising prices on furnishings, apparel, and imported goods. The concern? Households could get spooked — triggering a wider inflationary spiral.
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3/8.But Fed Chair Jerome Powell is holding the line. He insists the Fed must wait to see clear inflation data before adjusting rates — especially with tariffs muddying the waters.
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2/8.Trump is calling for a massive 300bps rate cut, arguing the economy would “take off like a rocket.”. That would take the Fed Funds Rate down to 1.25% — a dramatic move not seen since the Great Recession era. 🚀.
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🧵 1/8.All eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. Despite mounting pressure from Donald Trump, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%. But the debate is heating up — and dissent is in the air. 👇
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