NextWave EFT
@NextWaveEFT
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Fundamental analysis in the energy space. Not investment advice.
Joined December 2019
For those that missed the sarcasm. https://t.co/o2aMKU72We
@kadihalkadih @NextWaveEFT @anasalhajji This chart tracks US shale oil production in barrels per day (bopd) from 2006 to 2025. It shows steady growth from near zero to over 11 million bopd, with a brief dip around 2020. The "Wrong" labels satirize repeated predictions that shale is "dead," while production keeps
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2014-2018: Companies underwrote 30 wells per section in the Delaware. We laughed. 2019-2023: OOPS. Spacing and timing matter. What we meant was 12 wells/section 2024+: Nvmd, up to 40 wells/section is doable when sequencing development correctly The last point is true.
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AI will end humanity because humanoid robots, who still lack the capability of peeling a banana, will power itself by drilling gas wells, mining materials, and assembling solar panels. Did I get that right?
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$DVN reports y/y D&C costs in the Delaware Basin have come down from $800/ft to $650/ft. Softening service costs play a role, sure. But this rate of change in the 10th year of a play is impressive af. Hats off to the $DVN ops team.
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Those Tamboran Australian shale wells…not good. $TBN Based on IP results, well productivity looks like Barnett (1 bcf/1000), but with costs similar to Western Haynesville (>$20mm)…. And no market to sell the gas. Mgmt will hype this another 36 mos and then this will all end.
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Sometimes you gotta step back and just look in awe at what the American Oil and Gas industry is capable of. Permian Basin Stats - 250+ companies - $500 billion invested - 50,000 wells - Made the US the #1 oil producer There's no other country on earth that could achieve this.
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And just a follow up to this to get ahead of the comments: This doesn’t disprove the trading / share count theories people are hanging onto. This is a piece of information that shows the leaders of the business (who are peddling the “corporate warfare” stuff) are frauds.
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Quick Orogrande update for the $MMTLP folks who are still looking for answers As a reminder, Nextbridge lost their 130k acre lease that “has 4 billion barrels” as touted by CEOs Brda/McCabe 12 mos later, nobody in the industry has leased those acres… Bc as warned it was a scam
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Open AI: I will pay 2x spot rates to secure energy for my datacenter. Don’t care if it’s wind or coal. META: 5x spot rates. Any energy other than a melted down nuclear power plant lol Google: I’ll take that melted shit. 7x rates. Chamath: Energy costs are going to zero.
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Sankey always does a great job communicating the status of oil markets. Clear and concise. Recent cnbc piece is worth a watch.
Global oil market at historic inflection point as supply, demand falls, says Paul Sankey @CNBC
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Calling c the "speed of light" completely misses the point. Rather, c is the "spacetime exchange rate": how many units of space you can exchange for one unit of time. In actuality, everything travels at the "speed of light", just not necessarily through space alone... (1/4)
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Here are the price differences for the avg american consumer from 2005 to 2025: Groceries: +155% Housing: +90% Healthcare: +120% Education: +58% ——— Gasoline: 0% Over that 20 yr span the US Oil and Gas Industry became a global energy superpower. This ^ is the result.
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2/2 Let's just append this to the end so I dont have to keep writing "agreed" to the comments: 2018 well costs at $70/WTI was also pretty gross.
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Lot of talk about inflation adj oil prices being super low. “$60 WTI is close to $45 in 2018”. Which makes drilling today “dumb”. Summary: Disagree. Well Econs at $60 today are more economic than $60 in 2018, even when adjusting for inflation. $60 today for the industry is
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At this point the DOE is poking the bear.
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Here’s a freebie for $CRK mgmt: Stop trying to accomplish both delineation AND HBP of your Western Haynesville at the same time Your standalone wells are spoiling 2000’ on each side, and at $30mm each it’s an ineffecient means to HBP Replace 75% of hzs with verts + spread out.
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