The National Context
@NatlContext
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News, context, and analysis—centered on the Kurds, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran. Tracking cross-border politics, minorities, and what to watch next.
Joined January 2025
A PKK dissolution and integration framework has been adopted by a Turkish parliamentary commission, laying out a pathway for legal reforms: The architecture is tightly sequenced. Turkey’s security services must determine, through measurable and auditable criteria, that the PKK
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Turkey’s Peace Commission Adopts a PKK Disarmament Framework • It is also a strategic doctrine: it advances a vision of a "natural alliance" of Turks, Kurds & Arabs as the antidote to "fragmentation scenarios" with Turkey cast as the integrating pole. https://t.co/KNtBFq4aL3
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On more the casual chain evidence: Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani’s spokesperson said Mazloum Abdi was issued a Syrian passport just days before the conference and traveled to and back with them via Erbil: https://t.co/xDnSQW1zs2 Just hours after returning to Erbil,
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Here is smoking-gun evidence that the U.S. Congress was briefed and, more importantly, told that Mazloum Abdi and the Syrian foreign minister would attend the conference together. This interview was conducted on February 12, one day before the conference:
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Here is a documented chain showing how SDF commander Mazloum Abdi’s attendance at the Munich Security Conference was arranged, by whom, through what channels, and for whose benefit: Arrangement: According to Asharq Al-Awsat, citing a source close to the Syrian government, Abdi
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Mazloum Abdi at Munich: What It Was, and What It Was Not • Abdi’s participation in the Munich Security Conference mattered, but only when read in its proper context, not as a turning point that can be inflated into a narrative that later backfires.
thenationalcontext.com
Mazloum Abdi’s participation in the Munich Security Conference mattered, but it must be understood within its proper context. Inflating its significance risks pushing expectations beyond what the...
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The Syrian crisis sparked a different battle in the Kurdistan Region Over What It Means to Be Kurdish It became raw material for an ideological proxy war over what it means to be Kurdish, who is to blame, and whether the answer is more religion or less. https://t.co/8aL9q40HrY
thenationalcontext.com
When fighting between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Damascus-aligned forces escalated in early-to-mid January, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq responded on two levels at once. The mainstream reaction...
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This July piece predicted how things would unfold between Damascus and the SDF with remarkable accuracy. It foresaw that Damascus would restore full control over demographically Arab areas, including Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, and that Hasakah’s mixed demography would prevent any
The SDF and Damascus government are expected to resume talks over the future of the SDF and northeast Syria in Paris following the joint statement by France, the US, and Syria. While the negotiations might prove tough and lengthy, a middle ground may finally be reached. The
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Iraq: How Sudani Turned Maliki’s Veto Into a Second-Term Strategy The origins of Iraq’s current premiership crisis, triggered by Maliki’s nomination, follow a core logic that begins with outgoing PM al-Sudani facing elimination from the race entirely. Sudani’s path to a second
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The Old Formula for Power in Baghdad Is Breaking Down • The convergence of an assertive American veto and a weakened Iran upends the post-2003 balance that has shaped Shia PM designations, creating an unprecedented situation. https://t.co/UHCbDi0nPj
thenationalcontext.com
Three months after Iraq’s November 2025 parliamentary elections, the country remains without a government. The Coordination Framework — the umbrella alliance of Shia parties that holds the parliame...
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A clarification: Amberin Zaman is one of the more reliable and well-connected journalists covering the region. Our piece in no way disputed that, nor did it suggest that what she reported reflected her own opinion. The argument is different: precisely because Zaman is so well
Turkish officials have met on and off with İlham Ahmed since April 2024. The prospect of meeting with Turkish officials was on the agenda for @MazloumAbdi in line with “progress” on Turkish demands. Anyone following my commentary, particularly on Turkish media, knows that I have
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There are two lenses through which to understand Kurds in the context of Iran: cultural and political. The two differ significantly, largely because of the Kurds of Khorasan, who reshape the linguistic and religious map of Iran's Kurdish population. While the Khorasan Kurds
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The Perception Bubble: How an Echo Chamber Shaped the SDF’s Strategic Miscalculation • Throughout 2025, a loosely connected network of Syrian Kurdish and pro-SDF analysts constructed a feedback loop that distorted SDF perceptions and expectations. https://t.co/o9BoVRUhTb
thenationalcontext.com
Following the SDF’s major territorial losses last month, much of the commentary has argued that the March 10 integration agreement stalled because PKK pressure from Qandil blocked pragmatic concess...
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As the practical implementation of the SDF-Damascus agreement continues, here is the latest: In a sign of how fragile the situation remains, instead of permanently appointing the SDF-nominated governor of Hasakah, the Syrian government appears to have given him a “caretaker”
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Looking back: 11 outlooks we got right - and what we missed - on the SDF–Damascus track: 1. February 2025, on how time as an active tool shapes the SDF's calculations against Damascus's new government: the SDF has continued to play the time element to this day. The article
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How Talabani Is Trying to Flip the Math Against the KDP • A maverick using disruptive tactics, Talabani is running a two-front strategy: tightening the KRG coalition math against the KDP while building a Baghdad front to challenge it on the presidency. https://t.co/9uGxWylJFL
thenationalcontext.com
Bafel Talabani is running a two-front strategy against the KDP that has eliminated Masrour Barzani’s path to forming a government on his own terms. In the Kurdistan parliament, Bafel has flipped the...
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The SDF-Damascus agreement maintains an uneasy equilibrium between war and peace • The contest has not ended. It has simply moved to a battlefield where strategic maneuvering and political co-optation will determine who prevails. https://t.co/XYsDFMF2hb
thenationalcontext.com
A delegation from the Syrian Kurdish National Council, known as ENKS, met with Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara and Foreign Minister Asad al-Shaybani in Damascus yesterday. The visit marks the first...
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Four Maps to Understand Iran's Kurdish Provinces Here's how four layers of data, from geography to religion to language, explain the region: https://t.co/yKbvuiLDrE
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As more details of the SDF-Damascus agreement become available, the contours of the deal can be summarised in five points: 1. Integration and the Hasakah division. The text states that in Hasakah, SDF forces will be integrated into a division that the Syrian government will
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