
Carl R. Tannenbaum
@NT_CTannenbaum
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Chief Economist for Northern Trust. @UChicago grad, former Fed risk manager during the financial crisis. Always in search of something good to eat.
Chicago, IL
Joined November 2015
#Unemployment among recent college graduates has been blamed on #AI, but this article finds the root causes to be more nuanced. via @ft.
www.ft.com
Unpicking the puzzle of increasing junior white-collar unemployment
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Is #stagflation in our future? Perhaps. but it will be mild, compared to past episodes. Our perspectives here:
www.northerntrust.com
Chief Economist Carl Tannenbaum discusses the unpleasant combination of low growth and high inflation.
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Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of American "exceptionalism?" #Economically, at least, that conclusion seems premature. Here's why:
www.northerntrust.com
The strengths of the U.S. economy are likely to endure. Carl Tannenbaum explains.
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The flow of #immigration across the Mexican border has slowed from a flood to a trickle. This will have important consequences for the U.S. #labor market. Some thoughts here:
www.northerntrust.com
Strict immigration could lead to a tighter labor market. Ryan Boyle explains.
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The focus of #tariff tension briefly shifted to Europe last month. A deal between the #EU and the U.S. will require complicated negotiations. Our view on the issues and the process here:
www.northerntrust.com
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs. Vaibhav Tandon explains.
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Two years ago, everyone was talking about #reshoring, #friendshoring and other efforts to shift production away from Asia and towards North America. But those efforts have stalled amid this year's trade battles. Reflections here:
www.northerntrust.com
Decisions to realign supply chains are on hold. Vaibhav Tandon explains.
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The bills for #studentloans are due again. and delinquencies are escalating. Some borrowers may see their wages garnished to cover the obligations. Our thoughts on the situation, and the impact on #consumers here:
www.northerntrust.com
Student loans are rapidly rising to their pre-pandemic delinquency rates. Ryan Boyle explains.
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Recent #trade pacts with #Britain and #China reduce the odds of extreme outcomes, but #tariffs are still set to escalate sharply. Our review of what was done, and what was left undone, here:
www.northerntrust.com
The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start. Carl Tannenbaum explains.
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I'll bet most of you don't know much about Scandium or Yttrium, but they are very important elements for certain types of production. Background on #rareearthmetals here:
www.northerntrust.com
China has a leverage over the United States in the market for rare earths. Vaibhav Tandon explains.
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Will #tariffs bring jobs back to U.S. workers and factories back to U.S. communities? A review of the last 80 years of American manufacturing offers some insights and lessons learned. Our analysis here:
www.northerntrust.com
The loss of manufacturing in the United States is a long-running tale. Carl Tannenbaum explains.
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Even if a country isn't facing the highest #tariffs, they could be affected through their trade relationships with nations that are harder-hit. #Australia is case in point. Reflections here:
www.northerntrust.com
Nations like Australia will take collateral damage from the U.S.-China showdown. Vaibhav Tandon explains.
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Rumors surrounding the dumping of #Treasury debt are greatly exaggerated. Background here:
www.northerntrust.com
Trade tensions are adding to volatility in bond markets. Vaibhav Tandon explains.
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Government criticism of the #Fed is unwelcome, but not at all unprecedented. U.S. Presidents have routinely tried to exert influence, and one of them actually closed the central bank down. Some historical perspective here:
www.northerntrust.com
Central banks work best when left independent. Carl Tannenbaum explains.
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The #FederalReserve meets today. The #economic backdrop is complicated by the fact that "hard" data (like the unemployment rate) and the "soft" data (like consumer confidence) are telling different stories. Some thoughts on this dichotomy here:
www.northerntrust.com
Pessimism is creeping into surveys, but not the hard data yet. Carl Tannenbaum explains.
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#Oil prices are down, providing some relief for consumers. But #electricity prices are poised to deliver a jolt. Some thoughts on the energy picture here:
www.northerntrust.com
Electricity prices in the U.S. may heat up this summer. Ryan Boyle explains.
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#Gold has been popular. and valuable of late. Some of this is glitter, however. Thoughts on this unique asset here:
www.northerntrust.com
Major buying by central banks has fueled gold's rally. Ryan Boyle explains.
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#Canada Prime Minister #Carney visits Washington this week, hoping to re-set #economic relations. The two countries are better together, but Canada is not without avenues for growth if it sets out more on its own. Thoughts here:
www.northerntrust.com
Canada can chart a new course for growth and self-sufficiency.. Ryan Boyle explains.
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#Inflation can hatch from unexpected places. The strange case of #eggflation and its impact on the #FederalReserve is covered in our latest video:
www.northerntrust.com
Chief Economist Carl Tannenbaum discusses how eggs illustrate the paradox of prices.
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The Smoot Hawley #tariffs of 1930 wrecked #economies and raised geopolitical risk. A history lesson (which we do NOT want to repeat) here:
www.northerntrust.com
The motives behind Smoot-Hawley sound familiar today. Vaibhav Tandon explains.
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#Tariffs on the #auto industry are still very much in force, and they will cause discomfort for foreign and domestic producers alike. Our analysis of the consequences here:
www.northerntrust.com
The auto sector will be the first to feel the strain of tariffs. Ryan Boyle explains.
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