Michael F. Florio
@MichaelFFlorio
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Fantasy Football/NFL Analyst 📺📝 @NFLFantasy @NFLNetwork |🎙 @rotoballer @siriusxmfantasy and Florio’s Football Show
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Joined February 2013
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Today is a day to remember the great Mac Miller. Football is back tomorrow. Time to merge two things I love - and pay homage to a legend - so here’s NFL players as Mac Miller albums!
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Yesterday I said that Josh Allen covers up a lot of bad for the Bills and people were quick to say he’s not without blame. And obviously, no QB is when their team loses that way … BUT I don’t think people realize fully how much he has covered up for people in that building
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This is pretty insane... Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in yards on passes of 10+ air yards (691). Jaylen Waddle is second at (529). No other receiver has over 500.
Remember when Tua couldn't throw deep?
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Saquon Barkley is your current RB1, Christian McCaffrey is your RB3. Both play over 80% of the snaps weekly
Just wondering at what point does a player stop being “injury prone”
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In 3 Bills-Chiefs playoff games:
- Mahomes has 9 TDs
- KC has averaged 36 PPG
- The Bills defense has not forced a turnover or a sack
Any other team allows that they lose by multiple TDs. Fact that the games been so close should speak to Allen's greatness, not against it
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Most pass TDs of 10+ air yards by a QB-Receiver duo in the last 2 seasons (per
@NFLResearch
):
1. Josh Allen-Gabe Davis, 18
2. Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase, 17
3. Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs, 16
4. Josh Allen-Dawson Knox, 13
Wild
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On the run, avoids pressure, puts an absolute dime where only his WR can get it against a CB who hadn’t allowed a TD all season
Yeah, tell me again how he’s this generations Philip Rivers. You engagement farmers are telling on yourselves with that take
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T.J. Hockenson joining Mike Gesicki in the zero point club
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Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 54% completion percent (no one else over 48%) and a 122.1 passer rating on passes of 20+ air yards this season
Next Gen Stats gave him a perfect 99 rating on those passes.
#Dolphins
fans - you have a good one!
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Josh Allen ranks among QBs in their first 6 seasons
- 5th in attempts
- T-4th in pass TDs
- 61st in INT
- 3rd in rushing yds
- 1st in rushing TDs
He is tied with Peyton Manning with 167 pass TDs in that span. Manning had 110 INTs, Allen has 78. No one has more total TDs
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Josh Allen and the banged up Bills were the Chiefs toughest battle in the AFC
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Josh Allen threw for 339 yards and 2 TDs, while rushing for 81 and another 2 TDs. Scored 34 points. They lost.
3 times this year Josh Allen has scored to give the Bills a lead with under 2 minutes left and they’ve gone onto lose. It all comes down to one person
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If Jalen Hurts sits this week you can kiss most of mine and many other fantasy teams goodbye
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Rhamondre Stevenson dropped 20 fantasy points without a TD last night on 82% of snaps. Its the third time this year he's scored 19.5 or more without a TD - sign of a great RB1 in fantasy
He leads RBs in targets, catches and rec yards since Week 8
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Most people: “Lamar didn’t get all 50 first place votes?!?”
Me: “Lamar got 49 of the 50 first place votes?!?”
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If you played Will Fuller and Antonio Gibson today... enjoy your Sunday
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If you asked many people who the fantasy WR1 is I think most would guess Justin Jefferson who is certifiably amazing
But through 12 weeks, Stefon Diggs is the WR1 averaging 22.64 fantasy PPG
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Made my first trade for Jonathan Taylor
Gave up JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Carter to get him in a half point PPR
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Travis Kelce finished 60.9 fantasy points ahead of Darren Waller
Waller was the only TE within 140 fantasy points of Kelce 😂
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Feels like losing James Harden, J.J. Watt and potentially Deshaun Watson in like a month span is Houston’s real punishment for the 2017 Astros
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My way too early 2023 fantasy football first round
1. Austin Ekeler
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Justin Jefferson
5. Travis Kelce
6. Tyreek Hill
7. Saquon Barkley
8. Davante Adams
9. Stefon Diggs
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Kenneth Walker
12. CeeDee Lamb
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Can we please stop saying “if this young QB can take a Josh Allen type jump”
Josh Allen is one of one
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Call me weird but I feel bad for Tom Brady and his family
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Patrick Mahomes has the second lowest interception rate in playoff history
But
#1
is going to break the brains of narrative pushers!
There have been 46 QBs in the history of the NFL (since merger) who've played at least 10 playoff games and had at least 1 playoff TD pass.
Here they are ranked by lowest INT %.
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Anyone lose a close game and miss out on the playoffs or bye because they started Tee Higgins - who wasn’t on the final injury report but played just 1 snap?
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For much of the year it looked like if you didn’t have CMC or Tyreek Hill you wouldn’t win. Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Sam LaPorta, Dak Prescott all went on amazing runs
But judging from all the championship teams I’m seeing… Kyren Williams was 2023’s
#1
league winner
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Dallas Goedert joining Drake London and Tee Higgins in the zero point club
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Austin Ekeler has 80 rushing yards through 3 games
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Why I think the Bills will win:
- Josh Allen, Singletary and the O line are playing their best ball
- the receivers are deep and all healthy this year
- every move over the past year was geared towards beating the Chiefs
And the biggest reason - Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer
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QBs who have won 4+ consecutive division titles
- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
Bills been a top 3 seed every year - top 2 in 3 of 4. But those turnovers, right?
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Arthur Smith probably costing his team the playoffs by not playing Bijan Robinson against the league worst Carolina Panthers is objectively hilarious for fantasy football players everywhere
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Of all the QBs currently walking the planet, Josh Allen is the best of them
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Breece Hall is in the 1.01 conversation next year
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Not sure I’ll ever be able to duplicate a late round run like this - but won a league with deep rosters cause of it!
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It’s time for my controversial take of the year - but the first waiver run each week should be only for teams in the playoffs. The others can pick players up in the second run later in the week
If you’re in the consolation bracket, you get the consolation waivers
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My way too early 2021 Fantasy QB Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Kyler Murray
3. Josh Allen
4. Dak Prescott
5. Lamar Jackson
6. Deshaun Watson
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Russell Wilson
9. Justin Herbert
10. Jalen Hurts
11. Taysom Hill
12. Ryan Tannehill
13. Joe Burrow
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Josh Allen has covered up a lot of blemishes with this team. The Bills will be in the playoffs a bunch with him, but unless he puts up video game numbers they can’t beat other top teams
This season had ups and downs but the finish was a huge failure
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Josh Allen is the QB1 for a second straight season, there is no QB within 20 fantasy pts of him and he leads in PPG as well
He is the QB1 off the board in drafts next year
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There is one player to have at least 50 yards in 7 games since Week 4
It’s Donovan Peoples-Jones
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Even after taking on Mack's salary the Chargers still have the fifth most cap space in the NFL
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Fantasy Football RB Tiers
Tier 1
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Austin Ekeler
3. Christian McCaffrey
- the cream of the crop
Tier 2
4. Derrick Henry
5. Dalvin Cook
6. Joe Mixon
7. Leonard Fournette
8. Najee Harris
9. Aaron Jones
- a lot of talent in this group that you can get in rd 2
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Josh Allen MVP case!
- Led NFL in total yds, TDs
- scored 86% of BUF TD
- best record vs playoff teams (5-1)
- best PFF grade vs playoff teams
- 3rd highest PFF passer grade, 4th highest rushing (highest among QB)
- Fewest sacked QB
- 2nd big-time throw, 3% turnover worthy play
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Najee Harris played Every. Single. Snap. In his NFL debut
He had 16 carries and 3 targets. Only scored 5.9 fantasy points but this is the usage we wanted
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Mike Williams WR2 season is called off
It’s Mike Williams WR1 season
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My way too early 2021 Fantasy WR Rankings
1. Davante Adams
2. Tyreek Hill
3. DK Metcalf
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Stefon Diggs
6. Keenan Allen
7. Michael Thomas
8. Calvin Ridley
9. Allen Robinson
10. Justin Jefferson
11. AJ Brown
12. Julio Jones
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Week 1 Target Share leaders (so far)
1. Davante Adams, 49%
2. AJ Brown, 45%
3. Tyreek Hill, 39%
4. Donovan Peoples-Jones, 37%
5. Cooper Kupp, 37%
6. Justin Jefferson, 36%
7. Brandin Cooks, 33%
8. Saquon Barkley, 33%
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, 32%
10. Diontae/Robby/Christian Kirk, 32%
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Josh Allen led the NFL with
- 44 total touchdowns
- 4,830 total yards
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Alvin Kamara finished with 56.2 fantasy points - that’s not just a career high, it’s the most ever scored by a RB in Week 16!
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Kenneth Walker scored 11.9 PPR points - just enough where both those who said to start and sit him can say it was a good call
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Just a reminder what happened the last time Joe Mixon played the Jaguars
- 31 touches
- 181 yards
- 3 TDs
- 42 fantasy points
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Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs out here giving people fantasy championships!
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Josh Allen is the first player in NFL history to have 3,000+ pass yards AND 500+ rush yards in his team's first 11 games of a season
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Josh Johnson threw for 318 yards, 3 TDs and added in 18 rushing yards good for 26.5 fantasy points
The Jets second and third string QBs have topped 25 fantasy points two weeks in a row - Zach Wilson doesn’t have a 20 point game yet
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My way too early 2021 Fantasy RB Rankings
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Davin Cook
3. Alvin Kamara (lower if Brees retires)
4. Derrick Henry
5. Saquon Barkley
6. Aaron Jones
7. Jonathan Taylor
8. Austin Ekeler
9. Nick Chubb
10. Ezekiel Elliott
11. James Robinson
12. D’Andre Swift
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Kadarius Toney is a Chief!!! I spoke this into existence
Toney is their most explosive receiver right away. He will fit nicely in the slot and just be a YAC beast for Mahomes and Reid. Grab him if he’s out there
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Romeo Doubs did not leave the field today. He also did not score a fantasy point
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The Bills lost 3 games last year by a combined 8 points (reg season). They had the second best +/- in the NFL at 169 (Niners 173, 3rd was Eagles at 133)
Forget everything else that happened with this team. The talk of their demise because of one bad playoff game has gone too far
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Saying Austin Ekeler is an RB1 in 2020 vs saying he’s an RB1 in 2021
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I made a list of who I think the RB1s are the rest of season (not in definitive order)
Saquon, Ekeler, Taylor, CMC, Chubb, Henry, Leonard Fournette, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Josh Jacobs, Mixon, Dalvin Cook/Aaron Jones (both borderline)
Swift if healthy there as well
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I’m so lucky - I got to marry my best friend today!
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Justin Jefferson managers losing championships because of the very player that got them there
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Imagine Antonio Gibson… but with the 2-minute offense role
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Not sure if that’s Aaron Rodgers or Arthur Shelby
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Congrats to everyone who took home a fantasy championship this week!
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I was already leaning towards picking the Chargers to win the AFC West ... get Tyreek Hill off the Chiefs and that'll seal it for me
And again - Chargers, Bills AFC Championship game will be 🔥
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Tyler Lockett’s last 4 games
Wk 4- 5.9 fantasy pts
Wk 5- 8.4 fantasy pts
Wk 7- 53.0 fantasy pts
Wk 8- 7.3 fantasy pts
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Rachaad White Week 12 with no Leonard Fournette
- 91% snaps
- 14 carries, 64 yards
- 9 targets, 9 catches, 45 yards
- 19.9 fantasy pts
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Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, TY Hilton, Chris Carson, Russell Wilson... so many big name disappointments in Week 15
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There’s more and more smoke about DeAndre Hopkins and potentially a trade to the Bills
This is the move I’ve wanted Buffalo to make. Last year defenses would throw everything at Diggs, Allen would get away from him and there’d be long periods without scoring. DHop changes that
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Jonathan Taylor is on pace to finish as the RB1 with the fewest catches since… DeAngelo Williams in 2008 👀
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Travis Etienne is his first game without James Robinson
- 77% snaps
- 24 carries, 156 yards, TD
- 3 targets, 3 catches, 28 yards
- 25.2 fantasy points
Simply a beast
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Travis Kelce in 2022 may be the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football history
He has 295.2 fantasy points - T.J. Hockenson at 199.9 is the TE2 and he is the only player at the position within 120 fantasy points of him. It would take any other TE ~10 games to catch up
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Championships were won and lost on this play!
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There’s about 9 usable tight ends for fantasy and the rest is just awful
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Some receivers that I would love to see get a QB upgrade this offseason:
Allen Robinson
Terry McLaurin
Jerry Jeudy
Kararious Toney
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Happy for the Jets - they will be much more competitive with the Dolphins in the battle for second place behind the Buffalo Bills!
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Saquon Barkley is averaging 10 yards a carry right now 👀
He has runs of 33 and 68 yards today. A healthy Saquon is scary good
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Every receiver not named Amon-Ra St. Brown has a touchdown for the Lions today
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Kenneth Walker was available in one of my leagues. Spent $75 out of my remaining $90 to land him
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I’m sorry, Micah Hyde has a shot to return for the Bills?!?! 👀
That’s a game changer. Defense hasn’t been the same since he went down
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Make sure to get Rondale Moore in all your starting lineups
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Through 3 weeks Austin Ekeler is the RB5 and less than 7 points away from being the RB2
This makes me happy
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Kyle Pitts currently ranks 15th among tight ends in targets through 2 weeks
Idc if it’s fantasy football or not, that’s simply unacceptable by Arthur Smith and the winless Falcons
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Sean McDermott likely isn’t going to go anywhere but for someone whose top qualities are leadership and defensive prowess … he always seems to get out coached in the big games and the defense always seems to be the ones crumbling
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After a 16 week fantasy season your QB1 is... Josh Allen!
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Josh Allen has thrown multiple passing TDs in 10 straight games against the Dolphins. If he does so this week, for an 11th straight game, it will set a new NFL record vs one team - breaking Dan Marino's record
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How I rank the streaming QBs:
Jones > Minshew > Purdy > Darnold > Goff > Wilson > Willis > Foles
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Garrett Wilson schedule to finish out the season: Bills, Lions, Jags, Seahawks - all are in the Top 12 in fantasy PPG allowed to WRs over the past month
League. Winner.
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Congrats to everyone who made their fantasy football championship!
One more to go
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The last four playoff exits: blew a multiple score 2nd half lead, blown out by KC, 13 second kickoff and yesterday. The defense can bully bad teams in the regular season but can’t stop a good offense when they have too
At this point it’s a trend. An inexcusable one at that
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I mean how many classic games like this are the Bills going to come up just short? He gets out coached in every big game. He constantly plays not to lose.
It’s been a good run, but it should be over
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Tom Brady vs Aaron Rodgers
Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes
Next Sunday is going to be so much fun
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Fantasy Football WR Tier
Tier 1
1. Cooper Kupp
2. Justin Jefferson
3. Ja’Marr Chase
4. Stefon Diggs
5. Davante Adams
- the best of the best tier
Tier 2
6. CeeDee Lamb
7. Deebo Samuel
8. Mike Evans
- volume meets talent tier. Any of these guys can jump into tier 1
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Alvin Kamara would see infinite targets each week if this happened
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Kenny Pickett threw 13 times yesterday ... 5 of them went to George Pickens
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Imagine watching Jahmyr Gibbs run and then taking him off the field
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