MarkVoganWeather.com
@MarkVogan
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Providing Short 🌞 to 🥶 Long Range Forecasts For 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 🇪🇺 + 🌎 Weather Stories 🌩 🌡 🌧 ❄ 🏜 Check out my DAILY videos on YouTube!
Joined July 2009
**COMING UP OVER THE WEEKEND**. TONIGHT: Join me LIVE @ 6.30pm to discuss all things global + June Outlook! (link below). SUNDAY: TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Could we see development soon?. #GlobalWeatherReportLIVE🔴Ed 143: GOODBYE SPRING, HELLO SUMMER!
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**BREAKING** With a national average minimum temperature of -1.5C, France 🇫🇷 just witnessed it's coldest April night since records began back in 1947!
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Not often do we see this. CFSv2 temp anomaly for January '25.
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GFS ensemble probability of falling snow through 383h.
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Here you go. a photo of the very weather station to have recorded the UK's lowest January temp in 15 years (-18.7°C) this Saturday morning. I was alone with not a single car passing in over 2 hours! . #altnaharra. @metoffice @BBCScotWeather @bbcweather
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I'm officially in the UK's coldest spot with coldest January temp since 2010. And yep, the only idiot roaming around this village of just 50 folk at 6-7am!
Tonight has been the coldest night of the season so far, with temperatures widely falling well below freezing 🥶. Here are the latest lowest figures 👇
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The night is young and all 3 Scandinavian nations are reporting below -30C. Could we see close to -40C tonight? Would be extremely impressive for November!
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WOW! RT @mein__apfel: #Aurora Lights and Erupting Volcano in Iceland by Kristinn R. Kristinsson http://t.co/ZmvKuWCaZq.
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Latest gfs shows strong siberian warming, pushing and stretching of the PV but core cools to nr record -92C!
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2m temp anomaly for week between Christmas & New Year according to latest CFSv2!
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Cold looking 6-10 day. Colder than initially thought due to arctic rather than polar-maritime flow. Milder likely follows.
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Winter is coming. Next 1-2 weeks shall see significant expansion of the stratospheric #PolarVortex with a 5C cooling of it's core.
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First official dusting of snow here! 17th November.
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I'm telling ya now, this thing will get named. and was highlighted two videos ago as a potential mid next week! Detailed discussion coming up tomorrow.
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Scotland's yet to hit 20C (68F) this year and as of tomorrow you have to go back 38 years (1983) for the last time we've not reached 20C by May 21st! Info via @SeanBattyTV
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SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR ON THE PLANET IS IN NORTHERN EUROPE! A station up in NW Finland 🇫🇮 is currently reporting an air temp of -44°C with a wind chill of -53.6°C!
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That's an impressive swing, esp for central Europe!
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As the January 2025 cold spell gives way, here's the Europe temp anomaly through the first 12 days!
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Climbed up to Aonach Mor Summit weather station today, stunning view of Ben Nevis! @BBCScotWeather @theiaincameron.
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Not very often do we see the CFSv2 monthly go for a 'colder than average' but there's cross model agreement on this for UK/Ireland.
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An interesting 'recent trend' has emerged. 3 of the last 4 months have been below average for the UK and Ireland. For Scotland it's 4 of 4. October could well continue this.
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It's been a very difficult week. My mum passed away Monday 7th April & wish to say THANK YOU to all of you who sent the lovely heartfelt messages. I hope to have a few videos this weekend & early next week before taking a little more time out. Thanks for your understanding.
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Scandinavian snowpack is doing well and temperature is responding tonight. Still early in the night and we've a -20C in Sweden.
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WEBCAM: Blizzard conditions currently over Mauna Kea #Hawaii. Via @WXSchnack
http://t.co/SlPD4suWTM
http://t.co/ryoPFhxkBr.
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GFS has core of stratospheric #polarvortex cooling to -85C next weekend. Likely a record for the time of year.
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Great shot! MT "@SkyWarnUK: Rope tornado over Treviso, Italy today
http://t.co/eYYlN3N3Ew"
@JimCantore.
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Increasing cross-model agreement that a Scandi-Alaska-Greenland high hooks up mid/late Feb potentially locking in a prolonged period of cold for Europe followed by USA. Interesting to watch!
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Alps snow! MT "@RADIORMT: +++ Torna la #neve sulle #Alpi, sopra i 1.500 mt +++ #Meteo
http://t.co/jtyGNnCLdT"
@JimCantore @spann.
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The UK icebox of Altnaharra started Tue at -10.4°C and warmed to -0.6°C early this afternoon. It's back at -7.7°C as of 7pm and likely heading back into the -10s for a 3rd straight night!
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As polar air continues to dive deep into SE Europe, high parts of Greece even some islands within the Med are likely to see heavy snow, even to the beaches in some spots. Much of Turkey is buried! At the beginning of February the Scot Highlands could be bk in the game.
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Mid winter conditions on Cairngorm Summit yesterday. -6.2C, -16C wind chill. @SeanBattySTV @theiaincameron
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**How warm is the air mass over Southwest England??*** Tui flight inbound to Exeter reporting a temp of 24C ABOVE 6,000ft.
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Amazing imagery from NASA shows ice still on James Bay, August 8, 2015. @spann @JimCantore @anthonywx
http://t.co/jKWK7YZlEh.
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A tad different between CFSv2 vs GFS ENS for 9-16th Dec.
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Made it! June 1st & 1st day of meteorological summer with 2% ice remaining on Lake Superior! Unprecedented event. http://t.co/S7VjCil5Jy.
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Paris Shivers In Coldest Consecutive Late March Days Since 1888
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Central pressure now 952 S of Iceland tonight. Generating spell of heavy rain, 50-60 mph SW winds for W UK & brief rise in temp of 15-17°C for some due to foehn effect.
An impressive deep low is nearing Iceland today. The central pressure is now at 956 mbar, and the system is near its peak intensity. Pressure should fall close to 950 mbar before its center grazes into Reykjanes Peninsula in S-SW Iceland. Image by @Vedurstofan
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Coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere? Daylight returns to Summit Camp but temp now at -54C (-65F). @JimCantore @spann @weatherchannel
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Romania snow! "@Nicorel Costila Peak 2498 m, Bucegi Mountain Carpathian Romania today! 21 June
http://t.co/yfgxpyUGBy"
@JimCantore @spann.
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Looks increasingly likely the 'unusually strong Greenland block' will linger well into October and so the cool anomaly too is likely to hold for NW Europe. Curious to know how this near -3 sigma NAO compares to Sept history? @WorldClimateSvc @Superchri90
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Approaching mid-month and same old story! From north to south coast Britain, the mean temp is firmly 2-4C BELOW AVG with little appreciable warmth on horizon.
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**NEW POST** It’s Like I’ve Drawn The Charts Myself….
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Current conditions on the A9 at Drumochter. Winds gusting 112 mph over Cairngorm. #StormGerrit
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With prospects growing for another spell of strong high latitude blocking (-AO), could we see further frictional weakening of the stratospheric circulation during November? ECMWF suggests YES! #polarvortex
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Textbook twin troughs between a Greenland block. When's the last time this happened? 2010?
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May well be nothing but. let's keep a wee eye on the stratosphere & #polarvortex this week & beyond!
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Heatwave ends with snow. .
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Nasty conditions earlier this morning on the A9. Snowing hard at -6C between Aviemore & Slochd. Dash read -11C between Dalwhinnie & Newtonmore. Pics: A9 near Carrbridge & Inverness.
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Next 24h could see UK's lowest pressure since 1800s.
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A9 near Slochd Summit at 0320 this morning. @aidanweather @alexdeakin @highlandweather @SeanBattyTV @WindyWilson88 @Alonso2012F @metoffice
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Latest ECMWF suggests a 944mb low between Sweden & Finland next Friday while earlier GFS run had a 935mb low over S Norway. Interesting times ahead in the run up to #Christmas.
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ECMWF showing 10hpa mean zonal winds currently through the roof but interesting weakening trend & warming showing up in Feb. Might be nothing. time will tell.
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Now strat has engaged with trop and atmosphere's in reverse, look for the ridge over UK now to be over Greenland and cold pool now over ESE Europe to be centred near UK in 6-10 days from now! #SSW #PolarVortex #winter
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Arctic Oscillation is tanking! . What does this mean? . Pieces of the tropospheric #PolarVortex shall get released southward into N America & Europe early 2025. Stay tuned 😉
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Due to wind direction, we have a fascinating Cairngorm Plateau RAINSHADOW. Many sites in/around Inverness has yet to record rain while my site just 14 or so miles due north is approaching 40mm since 3pm. The hosepipe of moisture sweeps around the Black Isle. #StormBabet
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CFSv2 500mb for January '25 couldn't be much more impressive from a Eastern US/Europe cold perspective. (firm -AO/NAO).
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NOAA Hurricane Hunters are in Shannon, Ireland 🇮🇪 and due to fly into #StormEowyn today!. I fully expect the issuance of.⚠️ RED WARNINGS ⚠️ later today for what could be an 'extreme event' for Ireland & UK. .
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The most anomalous upper level heights globally is sitting over Scotland currently.
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Comparing this Wednesday with next as per latest ECM! . Subject to change of course.
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Mirror opposites over the Americas as earth balances out it's energy budget! Thanks @RegisCrepet
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Avg temp within strat #polarvortex @ 10hpa should be -62 to -64C now but is closer to -80C with core between -85/-87C in recent days. GFS has core briefly hitting -91C briefly but Asian warming weakens the mean zonal wind from near record strong to below average next 7 days.
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Forget about next week for a sec! Anybody talking about the strength of the high in place right now?? Wow!
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Latest run of the GFS suggests major #polarvortex disruption at 10mb but also a core temp hitting -100C on Tue 14th!. Polar strat cloud alert next couple of weeks UK, Ireland.
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Near white out along I-90 at Piney Creek, WY. Via WYDOT @JimCantore @spann @webcamsdemexico
http://t.co/Ios83YnAwW.
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Interesting things happening in the ENSO region currently. Due to MJO crossing the Pacific, WEST not EAST winds are blowing causing WARMING of Nino 3.4. This can be seen on temp dep chart & 7-day SST change!. Could be good news from a winter point of view.
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Mammatus clouds!.
Storm clouds gathering tonight over Glasgow #StormDudley.Thanks to #BBCWeatherWatchers Diana B for this photo.
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Greenland warms nearly 40C as textbook -AO/NAO develops, Cold times ahead for UK!
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Expected return of 'high latitude blocking' or high levels of 'solar maximum induced' ozone? The DWD model suggests a very weak mean zonal wind at 10hpa for the foreseeable. Wow!
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GFS continues to drive home the major strat warming solution next 10-14 days!. Friday's video explains WHY!
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New Year's Day night is hosting the coldest of winter across Sweden and Finland. Some stations are reporting -33/-34C. Nikkaluokta, Sweden is currently -36.9C!
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WEBCAM: Beautiful evening sky at Walt Disney World, FL this Saturday evening. @JimCantore @spann
http://t.co/PjgBZTFcxE.
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Altnaharra, Sutherland dipped to at least -7.7°C this morning, UK's coldest since the same site hit -13.8°C back on Feb 8th.
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Potentially wildest 7-days of weather in years ahead for UK/Ireland?? NEW video is currently uploading!! Stay tuned!.
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