Douglas
@MMTmacrotrader
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Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies https://t.co/JlkCFHwW8S
Joined March 2016
The MMT Macro Trader Starter Pack - Data Driven Applied MMT Analysis Videos: Trading https://t.co/vjQNHvEDi9 Employment https://t.co/RYk0lrfpY5 Inflation https://t.co/gxfNSq7g3s Rates https://t.co/DcVcNxWvMd Tweets/🧵 Unemployment https://t.co/uT2hYG6RoZ Inflation
The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵 1/11
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Massive surplus during a technology bubble, we're going to party like its 1999!
🚨 WOW! The United States ran a nearly $200 BILLION surplus in September, Scott Bessent revealed The deficit shrank by $41 billion "September’s monthly surplus of $198 billion was the largest surplus of any September on record and 147% higher than last year." "FY 2025’s
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Decentralised Robotics 🧵 I/ Building datasets for embodied AI is tough—humanoid robots need real-world human motion task data, but collecting it at scale has been limited to research lab projects or closed source big labs. At Eidon, we started with our wearable IMU trackers.
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It can not be stressed enough that flows (new reserves) are rapidly deteriorating at the most inopportune time. Now more than ever understanding MMT and the mechanics government spending matters.
Putting this all together 🧵 If the government shutdown extends into November as betting markets currently suggest the US financial system will be operating under an “ample reserves” framework with increasingly scarce reserves. This reserve scarcity places acute strain on
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If you haven't seen it, I posted this last week on the YT channel (🔗👇) Suffice to say, this is the most brittle markets have been in a very long time. The downside risk here (in the short run) remains enormous.
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Going Live 🔴 at 5:00 PM ET Today (10/3/2025) Discussing how DeepMMT & the AppliedMMT models work and how to apply the MMT lens to your investing thought process. 🔗👇
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Few might remember this but we had a president once shut down the global economy, crash markets, and then hand out thousand dollar stimmys to everyone.
TRUMP SAYS HE IS CONSIDERING TAXPAYER REBATES OF $1,000 TO $2,000 USING TARIFF MONEY
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Very few guys on here have an actual understanding of the plumbing. @MMTmacrotrader is one of them. Watch: https://t.co/27Tw41bSy2
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https://t.co/Kqan1QtX6P
https://t.co/jKHSUxofSa
https://t.co/Mv3LXqB0KI
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I know I've been a bit quiet recently, but when DeepMMT is this accurate what else is there to say? The more I develop DeepMMT, the more I realize how key MMT really is to unlocking deep learning for macro. It's all about the framework.
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DeepMMT forecast from 6 months ago to the day. I'm streaming tomorrow and I'll be going indepth on how DeepMMT works and the technology and theory behind it. Complete 2 year plus forecast history below.
Throughout the worst of the selling DeepMMT remained bullish, seeing the selloff as a massive dislocation of price relative to flows. According to the model, the current rally has a ways to go until it gets back to where price is properly reflecting flows.
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The 18 month divergence between Tax Receipt Acceleration and Bank Credit is starting to get concerning. The implication here is that little of the credit expansion were seeing is going to productive growth. Means we're probably quite a ways up the Minsky curve at this point.
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Throughout the worst of the selling DeepMMT remained bullish, seeing the selloff as a massive dislocation of price relative to flows. According to the model, the current rally has a ways to go until it gets back to where price is properly reflecting flows.
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~$120B tax drain over 2 weeks, RRP empty, liquidity signaling tight and a possible govt shutdown. October shaping up to be a very volatile month. Keep an eye on the flows!
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Going Live 🔴 at 5:00 pm et Discussing the impact of todays rate cuts and the implication on markets heading into next year. tldr: its not inflation risk, its a market crash risk. 🔗👇
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If today does not mark a major reversal in the dollar then we are cooked. The dollar should rally here, under "normal" circumstances. A failure to rally means the rest of the world no longer cares to export to the U.S. In real terms, this is devastating for the America. To be
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Rate cuts, at this point in the cycle, just pull forward so many of the systemic risks that have been brewing underneath the surface for the past 5 years or so. The impact of higher interest income on both the macro economy and portfolios can not be understated.
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📌 Bitcoin's price isn't driven by "Fed liquidity." It's fiscal flows. A thread, based on @MMTmacrotrader's work. 🧵1/14
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Using MMT to Forecast Bitcoin [with data science] https://t.co/AxRrju5don via @YouTube
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Retail sales booming and being carried by the top 10% of income earners. Keep telling yourself higher rates & the accompanying interest income don't impact growth because of MPC and the data will continue to prove your wrong.
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The Fiscal Flow Acceleration tracker is now up on AppliedMMT and yes, the causal and correlative effects show up with SPY/equities as well. 3/3
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