Douglas
@MMTmacrotrader
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Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies https://t.co/JlkCFHwW8S
Joined March 2016
The MMT Macro Trader Starter Pack - Data Driven Applied MMT Analysis. Videos:. Trading Employment Inflation Rates Tweets/🧵. Unemployment Inflation.
The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? . To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵. 1/11
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The gov't is literally confiscating US private sector wealth to achieve this surplus and this guy is calling it an improvement. Always funny to watch the libertarian types unironically applaud big government.
The United States posts a massive fiscal surplus in June 2025, driven by lower spending and higher revenues from trade. Outlays declined to $499.4B in June from $686.9B in May. Sorry, fearmongers. The fiscal figures have improved significantly for three consecutive months.
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Agreed. Empty beaches as far as the eye can see.
Just your annual reminder that this is the worst place on the planet. Never visit. Especially in the summer.
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RT @RelearningEcon: PulseGDP Weekly Summary. Latest estimate: - June 20, 2025.The PulseGDP model estimate for real GDP growth is 0.73% on J….
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DeepMMT 7 weeks later
Throughout the worst of the selling DeepMMT remained bullish, seeing the selloff as a massive dislocation of price relative to flows. According to the model, the current rally has a ways to go until it gets back to where price is properly reflecting flows.
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Great idea James!. Using DeepMinsky s1 to run the counter-factual on inflation following covid.
@MMTmacrotrader You should publish all the graphs for all the situations for the govt spending. “What would have happened without ANY American Rescue Plan” vs. “halve it” on inflation and unemployment for example.
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To be clear, we're not using the exact same data that the NYFed is but only data that was available in Dec 2020, in fact we're using far less data, and that is the beauty of system dynamics and proper economic theory. Our models are far more parsimonious therefore they can.
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A little preview of what we've been working on over at Modern Macro Tech:. 2021-2024 Inflation Forecasts: DeepMinsky s1 vs NY Fed DSGE. Using only data the NY Fed had available for its DSGE model in Dec 2020. DeepMinsky's non-linear system dynamic model absolutely crushes it.
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When you understand where profits come from you understand why govt surpluses lead to recessions. In a capitalist economy, businesses invest because they make profits. Govt Deficits -> Priv Sector Profits -> Increased Investment -> Economic Growth. A must read 👇
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I just heard America is going bankrupt so I did some research, the last two times we ran a sustained budget surplus: 1927-1929 & 1998-2000. I'm not much of a history buff, does anyone know what happened in the decade following each of these events?.
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RT @RelearningEcon: At Modern Macro Technologies we now boast the largest non linear, system dynamic, interactive forecast model of the US….
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This is why system dynamics is the only path forward for macro. We are in a system state (as Ben explains) that can only be analyzed via SD simulation. Add in a deep learning layer to optimize and then you can bridge the gap to AI. If only someone was building this already. .
tldr: Why your models are probably broken and why AI can't help you. Why AI Can’t Understand What’s Happening in the Economy Right Now. Something historically unique is happening in today’s economy. Four powerful forces are shaping the system all at once -- the four Fs: Fiscal.
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And investment is a prerequisite for savings.
Savings are a prerequisite for maintaining and raising our standard of living. Not saving (or not being able to save) on a societal level implies capital consumption and, therefore, economic decline.
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RT @RelearningEcon: Oh my. We have some really great tools in the pipeline at Modern Macro Technologies.🤯
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RT @BenKizemchuk: 1) Macro views are pretty much 💀 without this.2) Dinosaur linear econometric models gone.3) A glimpse into how a technocr….
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Going 🔴 Live tonight at 7:00 pm et with @RelearningEcon . We're demoing DeepMinksy, our next gen deep learning/system dynamic economic simulation model, forecasting what's next for the post-tariff macro world. 🔗👇
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Just had the talk with my daughter.
Trump: "I don't think a beautiful baby girl that's 11 years old needs to have 30 dolls. I think they can have three dolls or four dolls . they don't need to have 250 pencils. They can have five."
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Yes, the tax haul is a massive reserve drain, but the implication of higher tax receipts is higher economic activity in the year prior to generate them. 2024 was booming!.
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The April tax drain was truly staggering in size which means 2024 was a historically good economic year. And to think most macro gurus had us in a recession by 2024.
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