Douglas
@MMTmacrotrader
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Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies https://t.co/JlkCFHwW8S
Joined March 2016
The MMT Macro Trader Starter Pack - Data Driven Applied MMT Analysis. Videos:. Trading Employment Inflation Rates Tweets/🧵. Unemployment Inflation.
The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? . To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵. 1/11
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Since rates are dropping here's a Treasury Yields 101 primer:. The Fed/Treasury are the monopoly price setter of rates and we have their playbook for how they set them. So when rates fall, its telling us that the market is indifferent between holding reserves or treasuries at
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DeepMMT does it again. 2 + years of pinpoint accuracy. 🎯. Put your politics aside, what MMT does for traders/investors is give you the proper framework for analysis of the core driver of asset prices: flows. Accurate forecasting begins with understanding flows & their impact.
Throughout the worst of the selling DeepMMT remained bullish, seeing the selloff as a massive dislocation of price relative to flows. According to the model, the current rally has a ways to go until it gets back to where price is properly reflecting flows.
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I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
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Literally the fate of the US economy in the hands of the SCOTUS. Trump Wins and this cycle tops sometime in 2026 and SHTF. Trump loses and this bull run likely has legs for years to come.
🇺🇸 New $170 billion corp stimulus decision in Nov . Trump has asked the Supreme Court to expedite its review of tariffs, aiming for a decision by November (well ahead of the original Spring 2026 timeline). By November, the total tariffs collected (plus interest) are projected
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Initial claims slightly above expectations, however no sign of a deteriorating business cycle. If initial claims were rising with bank credit falling, that'd be bad. But initial claims trending sideways while bank credit is rising, that means we're fine for now.
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This is why creating economic simulations (in a program like Ravel/Minsky) using system dynamics is the only way to achieve any semblance of a reliable forecasts. 3/3.
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The majority of the time we are in uncharted territory for underlying foundational macro conditions. For example, take rate hikes when Public Debt/GDP is at 40% vs 140% or rate cuts when Private Debt/GDP is at 100% or 170%. The outcomes will be vastly different! 2/3.
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Your models fail despite your backtesting success because the macro economy is an ever evolving complex system. 50 years of historical data and we've only scratched the surface of what possible system states the economy could find itself in. 1/3
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Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
JOLTS. Construction Quits. Leading indicator. At level not seen GFC.
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Going 🔴 Live @ 6:00 pm et. Discussing the process of going from flows/data to investment strategy through the MMT lens & more!. Any Questions/Topics I should cover? Reply with them below, I'll do my best to discuss them on stream!
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RT @MMTmacrotrader: @Muhammad_Okoye Any and all good/services that are priced in the govts currency can always be bought by the govt, but t….
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Why inflation tells us where were at in the business cycle:. This video gets a bit technical, but its important detail for understanding the causal impact of inflation on the credit/business cycle.
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Extend the credit cycle while fiscal falls, and that is a recipe for a bubble!.
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The fundamental driver & first cause of the credit cycle is fiscal spending. Fiscal is a net add to priv sector demand and a source of net profit. The priv sector uses this capital injection as a means to leverage from, causing what we see as the credit/business cycle.
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Trace the source of that 'risk capital' back to its origin and you'll see it all comes back to fiscal. The US just spends more. This is why US capitalism is so successful - were willing to foot the bill for capitalisms 1000 failures just to find the 1 society changing success.
Why is the United States so much better at creating successful companies than elsewhere? @JeffBezos has a very good answer:
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Massively Bullish.
Big news on a Friday: Most of President Trump’s tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court. **But the tariffs can remain in place until Oct. 14 to give the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court**. —>The ruling applies to all tariffs done via emergency
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It's hard to get an endogenous end to a cycle without a sustained acceleration of inflation. The feedback loop looks like this:. Growth -> more investment/money -> more demand -> more profits -> more growth but also -> higher markups -> higher wages -> rising inflation -> slowing
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