The last time
#BTC
had a sell wall this large directly above the active trading range was Nov 2020. It was literally the same amount at the same price level. Over $100M in ask liquidity was eaten to kick off the bull run. Don't think a breakout from here will do the same, but...
The notorious
#BTC
buy wall moved AGAIN!
It appears they are trying to push price into their own asks. If they can attract enough buyers to clear $25k there's little friction to $26k and thin air to $30k.
No clue how long they can do this. Happy to play along.
#RiskManagement
.
1/3 If you think the entity that has been moving this wall of
#BTC
bid liquidity around the order book for the last 5 weeks is trying to help
#Bitcoin
moon, you are wrong.
The strategy seems clear...
#FireCharts
2.0 (beta) shows "they" just cleared a path to $25.2k, but "they" also pulled the notorious bid wall and moved it down to ~$23,450.
#RiskManagement
for the W.
In Q1/2023 we identified a block of bid liquidity moving around the order book that, at times, was successful in attracting more bids to help fuel the
#Bitcoin
rally. It seemed evident that it was the same entity because there were no time gaps between buy walls that moved, they
3/3 They are attempting to create what looks like a bull market breakout. We already have 2 rejections so if they get it, it's a bonus.
IMO, the goal was to raise the distribution range and drop ask liquidity on to bull market maxis.
#MissionAccomplished
#WhalishDivergence
You guys are amazing. Thanks so much for the well wishes. Jumping through hoops with doctors, insurance, coaches and school, so working from my phone. Saw Notorious B. I. D. moved to $22,250. Off to the orthopedist.
If the Notorious B.I.D. wall at $22,250 holds, I expect it to be part of the weekend whale games. I would not be trying to catch knives. Expect
#BTC
to retest lows or potentially move to price discovery before a legit Bull Market Breakout.
#FireCharts
#NFA
Sorry for a light day of updates. Dropped everything when my kid called me from lacrosse practice with a fractured wrist. Heartbreaking to see this happen a week before her first game, but her positive attitude is inspiring. This chart was nice to come home to.
#FamilyFirst
Time for a reality check...
If you think ANY price target for
#BTC
,
#ETH
,
#DOGE
or any other
#altcoin
is imminent, you are mistaken. The ONLY guarantee in
#crypto
is that these are among the riskiest of risk assets and NOTHING IS GUARANTEED.
If you think every little piece of
Update on the range set by the Notorious B.I.D.
#FireCharts
shows ask liquidity laddered up to ~$26.5k and it appears liquidity in that range is getting trickled into the active
#trading
range and replenishing resistance at $25k. Want to see more bids above $24k to retest $25k.
Historically, the purple class of whales seen on
#FireCharts
CVD with order sizes between $100k - $1M has had the most influence over
#Bitcoin
price action. They've been buying since June 18th. They are currently selling the pumps.
Feels like
#Bitcoin
is hovering on
#hopium
. If you are trading the volatility, don't give it all back. I trust the $24M at $20k almost as much as I trust
@SBF
. Be sure to TP along the way.
Call in it a night. Gimme a like if you want me to share more
#FireCharts
over the weekend.
The notorious
#BTC
buy wall we've been tracking for 5 weeks just strategically moved again, this time just above the 21-Day Moving Average. This entity seems to be playing the Technicals level by level.
If you can identify the game, you can mitigate some risk and play along. 😎
The Notorious B.I.D. wall moved again.
IMO, until we see full candles above the 200 WMA this is still distribution in a bear market rally, and with the bid wall above $24k, shorting from this level has about as much short term risk as longing.
How are you
#trading
this
#BTC
PA?
After chopping through the $27k range it became clear that there was not enough bullish sentiment at this price to push back above $28k so whales pulled support and faded it back to $25.5k.
After the push above $30k,
#BTC
liquidity is diffused in both directions. There are no massive buy/sell walls, in fact the so called walls that appear on
#FireCharts
are rather thin. Bullish momentum is growing so we could see a push higher. Wed CPI and Thu PPI Reports could
I'm not even sure how to comment on this move other than to say, "You can't say I didn't warn you", but I'm not much of an "I told you so" guy so let me share some thoughts...
ICYMI,
#BTC
Price wicked down to $25,873 and even though the 200-Week MA has been reclaimed, the
1/23 It's easy to find bullish and bearish elements in the charts to fit you bias, but being a maxi can be risky. Remember:
Markets ebb and flow
Data constantly changes
Your bias only needs to match the TF you are trading
A 🧵 on the
#data
influencing the
#BTC
trend and PA.
#NFA
#FireCharts
shows ~$25M in
#Bitcoin
bid liquidity that was stacked above the 200 Week MA, was moved down to ~$23.3k, presumably to defend the Monthly Close coming Friday after a fresh PCE report.
Meanwhile price is pumping.
If bulls run out of momentum before clearing $28k,
Did some markups on
#FireCharts
2.0 (beta) to illustrate how the Notorious B.I.D. Wall is manipulating
#Bitcoin
PA. If they wanted to get filled at $23k they would have.
If you are
#trading
in this environment, know your invalidations. As always,
#RiskManagement
for the W.
From a TA perspective this should be a local top, but Notorious B.I.D. is still running the
@binance
order book. They are distributing
#BTC
ask liquidity out of the $25k - $25.5k range into the active
#trading
zone so resistance is thinning. Watching
#FireCharts
for the next move
Multiple rejections from $25k correlates perfectly with
#BTC
macro TA which is a valid reason to TP at these levels, but Notorious B.I.D. is still trying to push price up. Based on the history, and the potential to rip through upside illiquidity, I'm still scalping longs.
#NFA
Mentally and physically exhausted from analysing today's volatility and cranking out content on 3 hours sleep. PA got wild during the
#JPow
Q&A. After the dust settled
#Bitcoin
remains above the trend line.
Hope I helped you navigate around the
#FED
rate hike announcement and
1/2 Watching
#BTC
liquidity move around the game board on
#FireCharts
2.0 (beta) and wondering if the Notorious B.I.D. wall at ~$24k will hold or spoof.
What do you think?
#FireCharts
shows whales sizing up the sell wall at $26k. Expecting another wild weekend of
#crypto
whale games with volatility extending through the March 22
#FOMC
Meeting and
#FED
rate hike decision.
A bit surprising how many times local support has been tested and replenished over the last month. While I think that consolidation is generally a good thing, I don't think that what we are seeing in this range is as bullish for
#Bitcoin
as it may seem.
Out of context, prolonged
2/3 Yesterday they moved the buy wall to just above the trend line. Today they moved it just above the 21DMA
They are using technical levels to raise the floor of local support. At some point it may get filled, but based on past behavior it's likely to move again or get rugged.
#FireCharts
shows the $25M Buy Wall just moved down to the $23.6k range. Still can't confirm whether this is the entity we named Notorious B.I.D. back in Q1, but I can tell you we've seen this game played before with buy walls this size, moved this frequently, through this exact
If
#Bitcoin
was really near THE BOTTOM, do you think there would be a liquidity gap between $18k - $18.5k, and wouldn't you also expect there to be solid bids at least to the June low at $17.5k?
#FireCharts
I have no more questions.
Expecting rejection at $25k and a dump to clear the way for volatility around the 8:30am ET
#Jobless
Report, but they just laddered asks up to $28k. If they clear $25k they can exploit the upside illiquidity fast.
If you can identify the game, you can mitigate risk.
#FireCharts
#BTC
liquidity is thin in both directions. Fortunately bids are currently heavier than asks and whales are buying dips. I don't think anybody believes the bottom is in, but the opportunities are there for those who are scalping short term or using longer term DCA strategies.
#NFA
Do you think support will hold at the notorious bid wall to play the range again or will it spoof and dump?
Remember
#TradFi
Markets are closed Monday. If you're playing the game with Notorious B.I.D., manage your risk accordingly.
By the time we get to the March 22nd
#FOMC
#FED
Rate Hike Decision I expect that the top and/or bottom of the
#trading
range will be hit or moved. I also believe there is no confirmed breakout for
#BTC
without full candle bodies above the 200 Week MA.
Buckle up for the ride.
1/8 🧵 FireCharts 2.0 (beta) shows up to 3 years of order book and order flow history. If we look at a monthly view of the
#BTC
order book with the CVD Normalized it appears that Brown MegaWhales are buying, but all other classes have been selling.
You have to ask yourself why?
GM,
I hope you didn't start the day as
#ExitLiquidity
.
#BTC
flushed about $32M out of the range and left a black hole of upside illiquidity. If bulls can reclaim $29.5k before ask liquidity returns, there is very little friction between here and the mid $30s.
#FireCharts
Just as I was about to post that
#BTC
support was about to get tested, a $10M iceberg appeared just above the Notorious B.I.D. wall just before it got hit.
Scalping the range (responsibly)...again.
#RiskManagement
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
ask liquidity from the $29k-$30k range laddering down into the active
#trading
range. Meanwhile new bids appear to be trying to maintain support around $27.6k and hold the range for another attempt at $30k.
We still don't have a confirmed breakout or
#BTC
lost key technical support levels and the order book looks shitty. The local R/S Flip zone is the last stand between a retest at the trend line. Meanwhile, Trend Precognition is indicating a down trend. Will see if that changes after the W close.
Time to
#PracticePatience
FireCharts 2.0 (beta) shows bid and ask liquidity have both moved up which cleared a path to retest resistance at $30k. A new buy wall formed to push price up, then mega whales sold, and the buy wall was pulled. To me that suggests that one entity used their stack to push price
If you are wondering why yellow is buying
#BTC
here and brown mega whales haven't, it's not likely retail vs smart money. It's because liquidity between here and $29.1k is so thin that the slippage on a whale sized order would be significant so they are literally forced to make
#FireCharts
shows ~$195M in
#Bitcoin
bid liquidity between here and ~$13k on the
@binance
order book. Will continue to monitor for significant changes.
#FireCharts
shows ~$75M in
#Bitcoin
ask liquidity between here and $25k. A cool CPI Report could get them to move some or all of that sell wall higher and let price run and squeeze shorts.
#NFA
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
support and a significant block of resistance moving upward in the order book.
Support is anchored by new plunge protection at $33k. Meanwhile resistance at $40k has moved up to the $42k range.
There is no denying the fact that price has been challenging
#FireCharts
shows
#Bitcoin
whales trying to lure retail in at higher levels ahead of the
#CPI
as purple whales sell into retail bid liquidity. Also note that the buy wall has returned to the $24.4k range in 2 levels. If the $6M up top gets hit, I expect the lower $18M to rug.
#NFA
After an extended outage
@Binance
is back online, and someone put up a $13M block of bid liquidity to try to slow down a selloff. I wonder who that could be.🧐
#FireCharts
shows
#Bitcoin
price and liquidity continuing to erode and a critical test of support is eminent. IMO...
Losing $29k would be purely psychological.
Losing $28.5k would be technical.
Holding $28.3k is critical.
Losing the buy wall at $27.9k would cause a cascade.
I had some fun marking up
#FireCharts
to make you guys a cheat sheet to help you interpret the recent
#Bitcoin
PA and order flow.
#NFA
Yes, you can use the term "Whalish Divergence".😎
Somebody stacked ~$45M in
#BTC
ask liquidity above $20.5k If more bids coming above $20k, or the lower end of the ladder gets hit, don't be surprised if some of it gets pulled and moved.
#FireCharts
#BTC
bid liquidity is stacking under $30k and some ask liquidity is adjusting upward. These are either signs that bulls are building momentum or the bait for a trap. Manage your risk accordingly.
#FireCharts
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
bid liquidity filling in and brown mega whales market buying. Likely a choreographed attempt to push the distribution range up in the short term.
Personally still treating this as
#BearMarketRally
until proven otherwise.
#NFA
#FireCharts
shows an open lane back to the $30k range, but if
#Bitcoin
bulls can't push over this little bit of resistance soon, a trip to $26.7k range becomes increasingly more likely.
With a $26M sell wall at $31k, the
#BTC
weekend range seems well defined. We should volatility in the range increase as we approach the W candle close. Enjoy your Saturday.
#FireCharts
#Bitcoin
managed to close February with a green Monthly candle, but IMO nothing for bulls to celebrate. Trend Precognition A1 Algo is flashing a tentative short on the monthly, but the order book is still being manipulated. For me, a pump above $25,270 would invalidate the signal
Gooooooood Morning!
#FireCharts
CVD shows some aggressive buying as
#Bitcoin
ask liquidity ladders higher.
Don't
#FOMO
into a trap. Stick to your plan.
#FireCharts
shows
#Crypto
Weekend whales seem interested in trying to exploit the upside illiquidity in the
#Bitcoin
order book to sell higher.
Personally, I'm fine with that.😎
Expecting volatility to continue through Tuesday's CPI Report.
Enjoy your weekend.
#SwimWithThePod
~$150M+ in
#Bitcoin
bid liquidity laddered down to $25k. It's good to see some depth, but also need to see some density closer to the active trading range.
If bulls can't reclaim $29k, bears are going to push for a retest of the 200-Week Moving Average.
Will continue to watch
#FireCharts
shows a new block of ask liquidity suppressing
#Bitcoin
price, likely trying to push price into their bids in the $27.3k - $26.7k range.
#NFA
Wondering if we chop until the March
#FOMC
meeting and
#FED
rate hike announcement or if volatility will return sooner.
Zoomed out to a 6 month view of the
#Bitcoin
order book on
@binance
to gain some perspective.
#FireCharts
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
liquidity is actively moving around the order book and whale CVDs are on viagra.
Blocks of ask liquidity have been getting roof pulled before they get hit and are laddering higher.
Meanwhile bid liquidity is filling in the $43.3k - $45k range. Plus there
Liquidity dampens volatility
~$175M in resistance is stacked from $25k - $27k.
#BTC
bids are filling in above the buy wall at $22k
If liquidity thins and price gets close to a buy/sell wall, I expect some or all to be moved.
#FireCharts
PPI & Retail Sales Reports @ 8:30am EDT
It's still early enough to say GM
#trading
fam. Just in time to see what Notorious B.I.D. has in mind as
#BTC
price is dropping into range. Regardless of whether this test holds, buckle up for volatility,
#FED
minutes (today), GDP (Thu) and PCE (Fri) are going to keep PA spicy.
#FireCharts
shows sell walls stacking just below Technical Resistance at the 100-Week Moving Average. IMO,
#Bitcoin
Bulls need to print full candles above the 100-WMA to validate a breakout. While such a move would fit the bull narrative, it goes against some important
25,000 Followers! Thank you CT for helping us reach another milestone with $0 advertising budget. I'm truly humbled by the support and engagement with my daily
#FireCharts
post.
If you see the value in the
#DataVisualization
tools and
#TradingSignals
we provide, I have a gift
1/7 This looks like a classic
#bearmarket
rally. Since the economic and geopolitical factors influencing the market haven't bottomed, it's hard to believe the market has reached the macro bottom.
This 🧵 will discuss how this rally set up and how to identify THE Bottom.
#NFA
Zoomed out to a monthly view of liquidity in the
#BTC
order book to gain some perspective. The highest concentration of bid liquidity in the range is currently at $25k, but it's a relatively small buy wall.
For me, the LL at $24,750 is the line in the sand. If it holds, we could
#FireCharts
shows ~$17M was pulled out of the
#BTC
buy wall and it doesn't appear to have been moved in the order book.
Perhaps it was placed as a conditional limit order that won't appear until price reaches their condition, perhaps they took it off the exchange, or maybe they
Lot's of catching up to do this week around appointments, but will do my best to keep you in tune to the market.
After multiple hard rejections from the 200-Week MA,
#BTC
should test support. Note that Notorious B.I.D. is parked on the .618 fib, and Monthly close is tomorrow.
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
is sitting on top of ~$60M in bid liquidity aka support, yet bulls just don't have enough momentum (or perhaps sentiment) to rally yet. Watching to see if new liquidity gets added or if existing liquidity moves to push price up/down from here.
#BTC
took out $29.5k last night, but so far bulls haven't been able to muster enough momentum to advance.
All eyes are on the monthly close which could open the door to some volatility. To prepare for that, we need to know what the possibilities are.
I've been saying for
#FireCharts
reveals that someone is working hard to defend the lower lows. Looking for a push above the prior high ~$21.7k. If we don't see more
#BTC
bids coming in above $21k, the downside illiquidity (dark areas) will be exploited.
If you are wondering how or why
#Bitcoin
has been able to defy gravity and repeatedly recover the range despite the fading momentum, consider the fact that 9825 BTC that the U.S. DOJ seized from Silk Road are actively being distributed into the market across multiple exchanges.
1/7 Despite the fact that we are for the first time in a long time,
#FireCharts
is showing the kind of concentrations of bid liquidity that have historically served as launch pads for strong rallies, this still looks like a strategically choreographed distribution game to me.
I'm truly humbled to be waking up to 20k followers. Thank you for following along.
If I've helped you navigate the market this week, please let me know how so I can deliver more of the content you value.
If you'd like to try our use Promo Code 20k20 for 20% OFF our best plans.
Both Trend Precognition algos are flashing short on the D chart. Signals confirm at the D close, but in context with fundamentals and TA, consider them valid and already acted on them.
If I helped you print profit this week, let me know how so I can give more of what you value.
#FireCharts
binned CVD shows the smallest order class (orange) has bought > $45M in
#Bitcoin
via market orders through this dip over the last 24 hours.
Pro Tip: That ain't retail.
Looks like more than half of that $45M sell wall is gone. Most of it was trickled into the active trading range and bought. Now ~$20M in
#BTC
ask liquidity remains concentrated between $20,480 - $20,630.
#FireCharts
Seeing where there is a lack of liquidity in the order book is just as important as seeing where buy and sell walls exist. Volume Percentile filtering in
#FireCharts
2.0 (beta) makes that easy.
If
#BTC
bulls can push above $18k there is very little friction up to $20k.
If you scroll through the feed you'll see how we used
#FireCharts
2.0 (beta) over the weekend to spot liquidity movement and identify ranges that were likely to get exploited.
If my tweets helped you over the weekend, please LMK how I helped you so I can deliver more value.
Cooler than expected Jobless Report =
"Higher for Longer", both of which are moving targets. Notorious B.I.D. Wall is still propping up the distribution range, but they are losing momentum. If they pump again will
#SellTheRip
. Expect them to lower the wall to attract more bids.
#FireCharts
shows
#Bitcoin
liquidity is pretty thin in between walls which sets up for some weekend volatility. We never trust new large walls to hold, however, the $26M in bid support that just appeared may be weekend plunge protection.
Enjoy your weekend!