Excited to release a huge evolution project on the works for many years: An experimental evolution project across climates to understand rapid adaptation Preprint: https://t.co/z3Zcffh5PU All data available: https://t.co/hgD7rSqPP9 #MOILAB @UCBerkeley @HHMINEWS 🧵👇

To promote the collection, I’ve launched a designer clothing line where synthetic biology meets aesthetics. I will give out 100 free limited edition shirts to the first who retweet and order with their handle in the name! Available here → https://t.co/KctFUBPZQH   🧵(6/7)

What do you want to know?

All re-analyses can be reproduced from this public code: https://t.co/SL9wO46Evx https://t.co/TGwQSUGYGU Please do reach with any questions, about paper or code, or calculations!

I want to thank Shaw et al. and corresponding author Prof. Grueber for their enormous effort in compiling genetic data from across the literature, for their thoughtful analyses, and for their engagement in correspondence regarding my inquiries. And many colleagues for feedback

Crucially, the lack of signal in my re-analyses does not mean genetic diversity is safe. Evolutionary theory also predicts an enormous genetic diversity extinction debt. To prevent future irreversible losses we must recover populations now - see forecast

Genetic diversity is likely declining globally, but evolutionary models predict small percentage losses are expected at short timescales, unless a species has truly plummeted in pop size (reviewed datasets published in the last decades generally cover short timescales, ~7 yrs).

Conservation policy typically speaks in terms of % diversity loss. I therefore attempted to translate the study’s reported effect sizes meta-regression, but found the percent changes to be close to ~0%, with half species decreasing, half species increasing in genetic diversity.

Many news outlets picked this up like The Guardian, World Economic Forum, etc: https://t.co/pddRWqt5jz https://t.co/Hou6JWOz5s

Earlier this year a very large review of genetic diversity trends within populations of >600 species was published in Nature, reporting a consistent significant genetic diversity decline across species. https://t.co/SALNYhL5fr

*ALERT! GLOBAL GENETIC DIVERSITY TREND RE-ANALYSIS* "Signals of consistent genetic diversity decline are not yet measurable in global meta-analysis" https://t.co/SL9wO46Evx

Network, we are looking for PhD students and Postdocs on evolutionary and ecological genomics in 2025/2026 Join diverse and welcoming lab at @UCBerkeley @HHMINEWS! https://t.co/P9qmyY8BgJ Team members are giving talks at Evolution/GRC EEG/SMBE/ASPB this summer, reach out!

Network, we are looking for PhD students and Postdocs on evolutionary and ecological genomics in 2025/2026 Join diverse and welcoming lab at @UCBerkeley @HHMINEWS! https://t.co/P9qmyY8BgJ Team members are giving talks at Evolution/GRC EEG/SMBE/ASPB this summer, reach out!

Excited to release a huge evolution project on the works for many years: An experimental evolution project across climates to understand rapid adaptation Preprint: https://t.co/z3Zcffh5PU All data available: https://t.co/hgD7rSqPP9 #MOILAB @UCBerkeley @HHMINEWS 🧵👇

Amazingly thankful to https://t.co/xQ7CcuCSMn consortium who persevered for years to run the experiments! And dream team Xing Wu and Tati Bellagio for final analyses/writing, Meixi and Lucas for comp. analyses, Ru Peng for enormous data, and +++ others! https://t.co/LXQVyPisQ1

Our big dataset let us to test whether evolution in a novel environments was predictable from the rest of the data We found early warning signals to anticipate if populations will adapt and persist or not – important lessons to incorporate evolution to biodiversity forecasts!

We tested whether such gene trajectories could have been predicted – we found genetic variants from warm regions of the species, increased in frequency in experimental evolution plots in warm outdoor locations, allowing us to build models

We search along the A. thaliana genome the trajectories of genetic variants that correlated with climate, identifying genes likely involved in climate adaptation

Remarkably, we found that those genotypes that showed high specialization, may have lagged behind adaptation in the last decades of climate change, because they often performed better when transplanted to cooler environments than where they were collected from

We could explain some of the patterns of which genotypes increased or decreased in frequency over time based on signals of local adaptation, where genotypes that had evolved in similar environments performed the best when transplanted - and modeled their climatic niches!

But we evolution occurred differently in different outdoor evolution experiments, with some locations having erratic trajectories and others being highly repeatable

We find clear evidence of rapid evolution, where populations diverged at the genomic level from the start pool over years!