Zayyan
@MCIAZayyan
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President of @midstonecentre | National Security | International Affairs | Geopolitics |
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You have to juggle "morality" with "interests". It's not nice! But that is how it is & you have to deal with that, or you don't 🤷🏽♂️
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The world nervously waits for what could trigger a devastating conflict — Iran may soon directly respond to Israel after airstrikes on Iran's embassy in Damascus.
This would be the first time either country has directly & openly struck the other.
Here are some thoughts:
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Imran Khan:
• Said Pakistan supports terror against Iran
• Condemned Pakistan's retaliation against Iran
• Rehabilitated TTP on Pakistani soil
• Called operations against Taliban "suicide" & "slavery"
Should've listened to those people who warned you how dangerous he is.
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Pakistan could be the first country to hit Iranian territory openly. Pretty big W.
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Iran are telling the Pakistanis they have about as much respect for them as they do for wartorn Syria and Iraq. Complete disrespect, and a gross violation of whatever integrity is left in Pakistan.
This Iranian attack inside Pakistan comes right after Iran launched attacks - yes, DIRECT attacks - inside Iraq and Syria.
This is what the world gets for appeasing the terrorist mullahs sitting in Tehran.
Enjoy the sh*tshow.
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So I see a lot of talk about Pakistani nukes in the context of the Middle Eastern tension...
The recent popularity of Pakistan in Middle Eastern capitals is primarily to do with conventional military power and, more importantly, regional coordination and cooperation.
Pakistan…
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Iran faces a dilemma:
1. Deny the strike hit anything (or hit civilians) & admit a breach of sovereignty
2. Admit the strike hit BLA/F & their presence in Iran
3. Deny IRGC was hit, risking credibility if proven otherwise
4. Admit IRGC were hit & necessitate face saving
I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if it turns out that Pakistan has also hit IRGC inside Iran. But one thing's certain now. Pakistan did hit something inside Iran.
And this is one of those time when I am happy to say that I was wrong. (about Pakistan not having the will to…
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Reminder: When Iranian linked Baloch terrorists killed Chinese nationals & sabotaged CPEC, Beijing didn't condemn Tehran. Instead, they told Pakistan to "do more", & rewarded Tehran by shifting their investment interest over to Iran, including Iran's own Balochistan.
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Pakistan doesn't just have a Taliban problem, it has an Afghanistan problem. Whatever government exists in Afghanistan, be it a monarchy, communist, Islamist or nationalist, all operate to serve the hostile Pashtun majority against Pakistan's interests.
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Enraged Iran is obviously undeterred from Pakistan's last airstrikes. If Iranian military units conduct attacks in Pakistan, Pakistan should retaliate against Iranian military targets. If they want to fight like a "proper" military, then they should be made to fight one.
NEW:
Iranian Baloch source reporting Iranian drones over the territory of Pakistan:
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Iran: *blows up every investment in Balochistan*
Also Iran: "hey, have this pipeline :)"
Pakistanis: "this must be a mutually beneficial deal, because the Americans don't want us to have it"
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Iran attacked Pakistan.
Iran recruits poor Pakistanis to fight & die in Iranian proxy wars.
Iran uses "Islamic brotherhood" to dupe Pakistanis into subservience.
Iran usurped Chinese investment from Pakistan.
Iranian proxies kill countless Pakistanis.
🇮🇷 ❤️ 🇵🇰 ❓
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For decades, Iran groomed Pakistan into submission with diverse propaganda tailored to the diverse demographics & opinions in Pakistan. Most of that soft power has shattered in one day.
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"Were the elections free and fair in Pakistan?"
"To truly assess the freedom and fairness of elections in Pakistan, one must embark on a journey back to the intricate tapestry of the Indus Valley Civilization around 2500 BC..."
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There's a brigade that thinks Pakistan can simply ignore the US. You can't—not because they're the world's most powerful country, or even because you're weak. It's because certain conditions will end up being very unfavourable and not capitalised on if you act as Sovereignty God…
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Pakistan needs good relations with Saudi Arabia. Anyone trying to sabotage those relations is not working for Pak's interests. Equally, anyone who sympathises with Iran or Afghanistan is doing so for bad reasons. Interesting that they're often the same people, or overlappers.
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Jihadis kill Jews
Jihadis kill Muslims
Jihadis kill Pakistanis
Jihadis kill Westerners
Just remember that.
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Update: Pakistan is the first country to hit Iranian territory openly. Pretty big W.
Pakistan could be the first country to hit Iranian territory openly. Pretty big W.
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Very important point!
There is now a phase of military de-escalation, but it shouldn't distract from the malign, multifaceted Iranian influence in Pakistan.
The extent of this influence is why Iran felt confident enough to launch ballistic missiles & drones into Pakistan.
Pakistan should remember:
The de-escalation signalled in the statement of Iranian regime's Foreign Ministry does not mean that Iran won't use its assets in Pakistan to cause destabilisation. Case in point: The armed attack today on a Sunni leader in Peshawar.
In fact, IRGC's…
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Pakistan taught Iran the difference between a professional military and an oversized militia dependent on strategic weapons & terror proxies. Israel, the US, the UK & their Arab friends all attended the class.
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There are some PTI guys that are slowly waking up to the reality of their party's very dodgy relationship with the Taliban & Afghanistan. They're almost there, but just can't bring themselves to fully open those eyes!
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@PolitlcsUK
An increasing number of "LGB" people do not want to be associated with "T" at all.
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The Pakistani establishment has realised a lot of very important things about national security and geopolitics—and even about the running of a state.
This is the best and probably the only good thing that Imran Khan and his handlers contributed to Pakistan. They were so…
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"The Afghan Taliban are killing my country's soldiers & violating my country's territorial integrity, but let me tell you about India."
This isn't even apologist behaviour, this is sleeper cell level stuff.
Yesterday - on 6th of Sept, 2023, three events took place. This is the defence day for Pakistan. A day when the nation celebrates its triumph over India. One could expect some adventure from Indian side, but never something from the Afghanistan side - specially when a self…
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The Afghan Taliban make a plea via their channels to the United States for:
1. the destruction of Pakistan, OR
2. the fulfillment of the "nation's desires" (Aka, "put Khan in power")
For the Taliban, those are both very good end results.
The entire issue can be resolved through two key points: The United States shoud either redistribute the geography of Pakistan to the deserving neighboring countries, or compel the Pakistani Armed Forces to heed the nation’s desires. Such...
Read more 🔗
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Israeli intel sees the Iranian retaliation coming through its own forces, & not Hezbollah. What could this look like? Perhaps retaliation could come via Iran's assortment of ballistic missiles, suicide drones, & other weapons. All of this could happen alongside cyber attacks.
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Khamenei might view this as an immediate opportunity to show the regime responded to Israel's Damascus embassy airstrikes, but the Iranian military top brass will be extremely worried about the poor performance of Iranian weapons. Both will be worried about what may come next...
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This time, it's unlikely the Iranians are going to coordinate a "way out" response with Washington, targeting US forces. However, there's the possibility of coordination that sees the US stay out the way of Iran's response. Of course, this leaves Israel feeling extremely anxious.
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The IRGC are a rogue entity answerable to a dictator, thus are unpredictable and can be aggressive. Pakistan claims to have a professional military set-up — A professional organisation should respond appropriately, not haphazardly.
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A militarily powerful Muslim country... the big, bad one... is once again pretty popular with time trusted friends these days.
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The "Iran's about to find out why Pakistan..." jokes are very funny.
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British casualties due to the Hamas attack, but British people on British streets supporting Hamas...
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When people talk about the Iranian lobby in Pakistan, there’s often confusion about what it actually entails. There's a common criticism that only Pakistani Shias are truly loyal to Iran, pointing to the recruitment of the Zainabiyoun brigades as proof that they're fighting for…
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When will they strike? That's uncertain. However, the "immediate response" window is now closed, as it's been days since the Israeli strikes. Tehran might wait until after Ramadan, but retaliation could also come sooner.
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But it's about end goals...
Tehran's ambitions are to advance its nuclear program and maintain its dominance through its proxy/allied forces (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others.).
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Today I see a lot of abuse by Levantine Arabs towards Pakistan/is on X. Literally can't stop laughing. Pakistani near-Islamists wouldn't get let into clubs in Beirut & are still dreaming of "we iz one" Caliphate when the Islamic Wakanda is already next door.
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Escalating so drastically with Israel is something Iran didn't really want to have to do. Why? Because Iran has been in the driving seat for a long time.
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The Iranians know they're viewed as a regional reality (and perhaps even more...) by the Biden administration, and many bigwigs. The Iranians have the entire Middle East on their toes, thanks to their successful geopolitical maneuvering and extensive proxy/ally network.
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ISRAEL-IRAN‼️
While sources indicate Israel may face retaliation from Iran within the next 24-48hr, there is the belief that Mossad & the IDF have approved a plan to attack Iran itself if it retaliates against Israel... Although Tehran seem to be delaying...
Some thoughts....
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Looks like the Pakistani military chief is very much aware that Pakistan has an Iran-Afghanistan problem.
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Given the nature, implications, and symbolism around Israel's airstrikes, the Iranians feel forced to retaliate forcefully and directly this time, in order to reinforce deterrence and demonstrate a willingness to escalate — the consequences for going up against Iran.
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The biggest victory for Pakistan is that they've gone from cuckolded by Iranian schemes, to a state of awareness that Iran is a belligerent, long-term, geopolitical-level nemesis.
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Just sayin'...
Imran Khan reportedly plans to write a letter to the IMF demanding it not fund Pakistan due to election rigging. Such a letter would be disregarded and have no value, but what a terrible idea. Pakistan badly needs a new loan. Not getting one could be catastrophic for the economy.
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Both Israel and Iran have their forces on high alert, and various preparations and discussions have taken place, including non-military preparations.
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The worst thing you can do after these strikes is use words like "brotherly" and "friends". Do you really think this is going to make Iran behave? They don't want to trade blows with Pakistan. They will stab Pakistan from underneath the cloak like they always have.
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This isn't the end of the world at all.
• De-escalation shows Iran a capable Pakistan that doesn't need to be poked
• Pakistan expressed awareness on Iranian terror sponsoring
• Pakistan demonstrated capacity to conduct military operations
Pakistan’s National Security Committee has decided for the restoration of full diplomatic ties with Iran including sending back the Ambassador per sources, after Pakistan and Iran mutually agreed to de-escalate following Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes inside Iran.
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Just like we've warned for a while, Pakistan now faces both an immediate existential threat from the Taliban, and long term geopolitical isolation & redundancy if things carry on as they are.
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Again, Iran's primary interest is the protection of its regime, but strategically, it is the protection of its nuclear program. Protection of its proxies is secondary, but intertwined.
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First there was the Egypt Vs Pakistan military twitter competition, now there is the Israel Vs Pakistan one... Pakistan taking strays from everyone lol
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"I don't care if Iran bombed my country, kill thousands of Pakistanis through proxies, geopolitically checkmate us, groom us using sectarianism, separatism or Islamism.. I don't care if they hurt us 100x more than Israel... I will always support Iran over Israel."
— Cuckistanis
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The Iranians view Hezbollah as the first line of defense for their nuclear program. This brings us to Iran's challenge of whether to intervene on Hezbollah's behalf if Israel were to target it, further explaining why Iran hasn't escalated significantly via Hezbollah.
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The Islamists might be absolutely delighted with this fireworks show from Iran that resulted in next to no damage to Israel, but the Iranians they're praising so beautifully are nowhere near as delighted 😁
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Tehran Times declares successful military operation on Pakistani soil resulting in death of Jaish-ul-Adl ringleader. Essentially saying "Pakistan hosts Jaish-ul-Adl", while also provocatively violating Pakistan's territorial integrity.
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@michaelangelosc
Filipinos should take more pride in their own people & culture. They have a GREAT expat community in the UAE & elsewhere. No need to worship anyone else, because such people will always look down on you while you're looking up to them.
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The underwhelming reception of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Pakistan has highlighted that there’s frustration towards Iran.
Look at it from the perspective of Pakistan's establishment:
While Imran Khan’s anti-establishment narratives were wreaking havoc domestically,…
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A Pakistani minister has emphasized that striking at the core—directly targeting the Taliban—is essential. Without such aggressive retaliation, the Taliban will continue to see their anti-Pakistan strategy of facilitating the TTP as risk-free. This needs to change. TTP = Taliban.
اس بار کسٹم اہلکاروں پر ٹی ٹی پی کا ایک اور حملہ۔
طالبان بائیں اور دائیں حملوں کے لیے اپنے پراکسی بھیجتے رہتے ہیں۔
اسے روکنے کا واحد طریقہ یہ ہے کہ پراکسی کے حملے کو اسپانسر کے حملے کے طور پر سمجھا جائے اور جوابی کارروائی کو طالبان کے دروازے تک پہنچایا جائے۔
.........
دا ځل په…
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❌ Secure borders with Iran & Afghanistan
✅ Security teams for Chinese engineers
The problem is... they don't try to fix the problem.
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My claim to fame 😎😂
An article by a former British diplomat where he reveals that Taliban rule has been a “disaster for Pakistan”, and Bajwa had “nursed anxieties about a Taliban takeover, but he was opposed by his intelligence chief Faiz Hamid.”
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FJ correctly warned that a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan (& then Pakistani policy) would lead to not only a resurgence of TTP terrorism, but domestic extremism in Pakistan. This isn't even a "prisoner of conscience" issue, but one of "ignore wisdom at your own peril".
Today I am revealing this:
I was detained for 5 days in Pakistan by a civilian agency on the orders of Imran Khan's govt in 2021. This was just a month before Taliban took over Kabul. I was released with an apology.
Then in 2022, a couple of months before Imran Khan's govt was…
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Joe Biden's "don't!" threat seemed to have been aimed at Israel, not Iran 😬
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Glad to see so many of my Muslim friends, even those who supported a Palestinian state, oppose the jihadist violence of Hamas and other militant jihadist groups.
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I was under the impression that Iranian hardware launched in similar numbers to last night would at least cause a worry in Israel, but... To say they in Israel are mocking Iran would be an understatement.
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Probably one of the worst takes about those events is ...
Reminder that the Iran-Pak bombing, missile exchange was a coordinated affair…
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But Tehran cannot afford to let the Israeli attack slide, as it would diminish its image of invulnerability, the regime's legitimacy, and could invite further military action from Israel and others.
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Iran have done this successfully so far, even though many of these proxies are independently engaged in various levels of conflict with state-level actors.
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They launched ballistic missiles at Pakistan that killed Pakistani children, after decades of sponsoring Baloch separatism. The cuckoldry is unreal.
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Taliban: "well done Iran"
Pakistan: "de-escalate"
Youthiyas: "well done Iran, touch me the way Taliban do"
Pakistanis in my DMs: "Iran's nuclear program needs to be taken out"
It's honestly been so wild this last week 😅
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Just remember that Pakistan themselves legitimised the Taliban. Their ex PM went public about international recognition. Now those same ever more legitimised Taliban, with their US weapons, are increasingly kinetic against Pakistan & looking to buy drones — & maybe more.
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Iran-linked terror group BLA conduct "Operation Dar-e-Bolan" in Pakistan's Balochistan. Comes as Pakistan Army Chief Gen Asim Munir met the Iranian FM today after Pakistan's retaliatory strikes on Iranian terror facilities, following Iranian terror & military attacks in Pakistan.
#BLA
named its ongoing attack "Operation Dar-e-Bolan.”
A police officer in Mach confirms reports of an attack & says that fifteen rockets have been fired in the town, causing a disruption in the electricity supply. The entire town has plunged into darkness.
#Mach
#Balochistan
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I wrote in this
@midstonecentre
article:
"For militarily powerful Pakistan, it is far easier to conduct tangible military operations than to fight the abstract nature of Iran’s malign influence."
This same applies to Pakistan-Afghanistan dynamics.
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💯 Absolutely. Importing foreign conflicts or agendas always leads to devastation in Pakistan. Destroying KFCs, causing mayhem in streets of Pakistan over "offensive" words/images outside of Pakistan, or fighting as part of Zainabiyoun etc for Iranian/Afghan interests must stop.
جمیعت اسلامی کے سینیٹر مشتاق احمد حماس اور اسرائیلی تنازعہ غزہ جانے کے بجائے گوجرانوالہ میں امپورٹ کرنا چاہتے ہیں۔ غزہ پی کے فرنٹ کے ذریعے اس کا مقصد یہ یقینی بنانا ہے کہ جماعت اسلامی غیر ملکی قوتوں کے لیے کام کرے۔ اپنے ملک کو تباہ کرنا یا میکڈونلڈ یا کے ایف سی کو توڑنا یا…
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Looks like there's another subversive campaign in Pakistan to sabotage Pakistan's relations with Saudi Arabia, and prevent them taking the necessary actions againt Iran and Afghanistan. I don't need to tell you which side is doing that.
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This is why Iran has generally refused to escalate tensions by retaliating too forcefully to Israel, or the US. The status quo suits Iran.
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However, it's important to note that these are explorations of security dynamics, and not outright predictions. Nobody can claim to know what is going to happen, even if they guess correctly.
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Interesting to see so many Pakistani nationalists so vociferously anti Iran-regime & mysteriously quiet about Israel these days 😁 shows that Pakistanis have woken up to the malignancy of Iran, & put aside entrenched feelings towards Israel for Pakistan's perceived interests.
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I don't know why I have to keep reminding some Pakistani circles that Iran getting nuclear weapons is not a "so what?" moment for Pakistan.
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Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said (paraphrased):
"RAW CARRIES OUT ASSASSINATIONS IN PAKISTAN"
This has caused uproar in Pakistan.
But how should this be understood?
Some thoughts...
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An Iranian retaliation may prompt another from Israel closer to home. Essentially, Israel is forcing Iran's hand.
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Pakistani national security circles:
There were some people who correctly advised or spent a great deal of time engaging with those that take actions, and even got into serious trouble for their efforts. They didn't parrot narratives, or believe their own bs. Those people should…
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It is a positive development that Pakistan now recognises Afghanistan and Iran as significant threats to its sovereignty, particularly due to their influence on terrorist militancy and other extremist elements within Pakistan, as well as geopolitical developments. This marks a…
🚨 Pakistan:– Ambassador Asif Durrani says, "Pakistan suffers more due to the Afghan problem than even it's past wars with India."
Referring to Afghan-backed terrorism (TTP), the huge damages to the economy, and internal social instability.
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Iran & Taliban supporters trying hard to convince Pakistanis to be submissive!
Pakistan has what, the 4th largest professional military in the world? With over 200 4+ gen watplanes. They'll smoke the Iranians & IEA in any realistic hypothetical conventional border conflict.
In any conflict between Iran and Pakistan, Iran has the upper hand because they have thousands of Pakistanis trained and tested in battlefield as their sectarian death squads in Iraq and Syria. Pakistan won’t risk rattling Iran.
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The self-styled James Bond of Pakistan may soon be shaken and stirred. In his latter career years, he spent his time creating dodgy networks, undermining his superiors, and having tea with all kinds of dubious folks in and outside Pakistan.
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At this rate we might see Israel retaliate against Iran's retaliation before Iran actually retaliate... 😅
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Hezbollah itself does not want to be drawn into a conflict on its own with Israel when their security guarantees from Iran are uncertain.
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Then there's Syria, which has nothing but bitterness towards Israel. That airstrike on the Iranian embassy was certainly not the only airstrike Israel has done in Syria. Oh, there's also that schtick with the Golan Heights, which Damascus enviously eyes retaking.
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In a full scale conflict, the Iranian military and proxies could cause unthinkable, long lasting, irreversible and potentially existential damage to Israel.
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The Pakistanis tried to get Iran to be clear about their commitment against "oppression of Muslims" in Kashmir, and Iran were pretty clear in their vagueness 😆
During the joint press conference, While Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif named Kashmir and thanked Iran for its stance, the Irani President during his talk did NOT specifically name Kashmir but rather said his country supports "all UNSC resolution is against all…
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@MichaelKugelman
Interesting, given their previously mild response. I suppose this is because of the ongoing domestic protests.
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The crazy thing is the Taliban will probably listen much more closely to him than a lot of other people 😅
Gotta love the confidence of Taliban. Someone from their media team contacted me today and requested to hire my services to work with them in the domain of "counter-terrorism" because apparently they are fighting ISIS or something. Showed it to my colleagues. We're laughing very…
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Egypt may consider those operations on its borders a red line, and have built up significant offensive military capabilities in Sinai in anticipation — is it in preparation of an influx of Palestinian refugees, or to ward off Israel?
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No. Don't obfuscate that nearly every drop of sponsorship and facilitation for TJP comes from the Afghan Taliban. It's this lack of honesty that has your country's people deluded into the same good/bad Taliban narrative your own military created, & now regret.
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When you kidnap & kill non-combatants from abroad, don't complain when their countries have no sympathy for you.
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Pakistan's former Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif pictured in the front row of Eid prayers in Masjid al-Haram in Mecca, alongside Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
#PICTURES
: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman performs Eid Al-Fitr prayer at the Grand Mosque in Makkah.
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In Jordan itself, we see increasing protests from the massive Palestinian population, which has a direct effect on Jordanian security and Amman's interests. Though Amman, like most countries would prefer that there was no escalation of conflict.
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Pakistan, and it's not even close.
@MCIAZayyan
If we remove Nuclear Weapons from the equation, whose armed forces are stronger.. Pakistan or Iran?
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No surprise Iran feels confident.
- Israel locked down in a conflict with many different state & non-state actors & standoffs with others
- Israel so far received only constrained support from traditional allies like the US
- Israel has been unable to find a way out.
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Nowadays, the Taliban are viewed as a more reliable investment (& even security) partner than Pakistan, & many multinational interests/plans align, including with Iran.
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It's no longer safe for cops, soldiers, or civilians in KP province, but it's extremely safe for TTP terrorists. This dynamic has to change, as it's absolutely unsustainable.
Cops are being targeted left and right in terrorist attacks in KP province of Pakistan. Multiple incidents in the last 24 hours or so.
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The amount of people in Pakistan I've tried to help out with so much, not even just work and employment stuff, but other things... And 9/10 times they will screw you over. Holier than thou & yet have no decent values 🤦🏽♂️
You give an opportunity to an unemployed Pakistani tech guy and the next thing you know the guy is questioning you on your political views and then tells you that they can't work for you because of that.
What a people. With that attitude, no wonder it's a failed, radicalised…
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