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Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

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Senior Ukraine Analyst @CrisisGroup, former correspondent based in Berlin and Moscow, author of @ColumbiaUP book on Ukraine war

Washington
Joined December 2011
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 months
The war in Ukraine is not a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing. We know exactly who started it and that his aggression is directed as much against Ukraine as against the US and its allies. I wrote a whole book about it:
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cup.columbia.edu
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
3 days
Kremlin may provide more information, but initial readout from Putin adviser Ushakov is spare and not cause for optimism: "The presidents discussed the idea to study the possibility of raising the level of Moscow and Kyiv representatives in talks."
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@grok
Grok
11 days
The most fun image & video creation tool in the world is here. Try it for free in the Grok App.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
3 days
Interesting details in Trump's readout of his call with Putin: He's now aiming for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, followed by a crowning "trilat" he will attend. And he delegates Vance, Rubio and Witkoff to deal with Kyiv and Moscow—but not Kellogg.
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truthsocial.com
I had a very good meeting with distinguished guests, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, Prime Minister Giorgia...
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Question 2: How likely is a trilateral summit? Putin disdains Zelensky, who defied him by staying alive and fighting back. The Europeans' support for a "trilat" seems to be one way of getting behind Trump and heaving the ball back into Putin's court after Anchorage.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Question 1: What is a security guarantee for Ukraine acceptable to Putin? If it is one in which Russia is also a guarantor, as in Budapest Memorandum or Istanbul talks, then Ukraine will understandably balk, especially if Moscow gets a veto on decisions of other guarantors.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Trump's biggest problem is that he's in a rush—that's why he's so bendy on an immediate ceasefire before talks. You can hear Putin in Anchorage saying: "But you don't just want a ceasefire, you want an end to the war, just like I do!"
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
In the big meeting, the Europeans' investment in Trump is paying off. Trump is gracious and warm, no trace of the hostility that caused panic in Europe in February, even as Vance and Hegseth sit in the wings.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Credit goes to Europeans—especially Starmer, Rutte, Stubb, Macron, Merz—not only for coaching Zelensky but also for giving Trump a crash course on the value of allies, even if they had to package it as "NATO is now buying US weapons.".
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Flashes of déjà vu as Zelensky is put on the hot seat in the White House. But this time Zelensky wore a jacket, profusely thanked Trump and let him do most of the talking. It went fine. (Putin is lucky Trump didn't unleash the press on him in Anchorage.)
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
There was great limo symbolism the first (and last) time Putin and Zelensky met, in Paris 2019. Putin arrived in a lumbering Russian sedan, Zelensky came in a Renault minivan.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Meloni and Merz both arrive in big black Chevy Suburbans. How to put it? Not very European.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
European leaders are beginning to arrive at White House, starting with Ursula von der Leyen, who is probably tied with Zelenskyy as Trump's least favorite guest today. Lots of military pageantry, very short red carpet.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
4 days
Lots of talk about NATO's Article 5. It's only two paragraphs long and says an attack on one is an attack on all. It does NOT say members automatically go to war against the aggressor, each can choose "such action as it deems necessary."
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
Have you seen this movie before? Trump demands immediate ceasefire, threatens sanctions, then has an "excellent" conversation with Putin after which he says he wants what Putin wants. Yes, you saw it back in May:.
@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
3 months
After phoning Putin, Trump is now repeating the Kremlin's call for negotiations toward a ceasefire. This is a reversal from his previous demand for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire for talks to start, backed by the threat of US sanctions.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
Scant news in much-touted Hannity interview with Trump except:.-The only one-on-one chat (besides in The Beast) was after press briefing;.-Putin laid it on thick telling Trump he lost in 2020 because of mail-in ballots; .-Yes, Trump will push Zelensky to accept some sort of deal.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
My president went to Alaska and all I got was this lousy CCCP T-shirt.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
PS: Despite all the rumors of US-Russian business deals in the works, it seems economic ties were very secondary. And surprisingly there was not even mention of the need for US and Russia to restart arms control talks. This summit was about Ukraine.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
We’ll find out a lot more about the summit in the coming days once Trump gives his readout and the Ukrainians/Europeans react. But their worst fear of a backroom deal between Trump and Putin has not come to pass. Their hard work engaging Trump is paying off.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
Trump was uncharacteristically pithy and got straight to the point: “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.” He said any decision was “ultimately” up to the Ukrainians and their European backers, cryptically mentioning one especially big sticking point. (Take a guess.).
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
Always ready to stir the pot of domestic US politics, Putin gave Trump a parting gift, laying blame for the war that he started with Biden (“my previous American colleague”) and saying Trump is right that had he been US president, it never would have happened.
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@Lucian_Kim
Lucian Kim
6 days
Putin spoke first, reading from a statement. As always, he couldn’t help but delve into history, especially his favorite war, WW2. He was excessively flattering, and it was clear that his main goal was to revive bilateral relations and invite Trump to Moscow—which he did.
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