70% Buy&Hold - 30% Swing Trader. SMID Caps. Market Commentary. Data Scientist. Tweets are my opinion & not financial advice🇦🇲 Use code 'LOGIC' for 10% off👇🏼
My thoughts on $TMDX aviation acq
Let's talk about the stock:
The way the stock is trading, I'd say there's one more puke in it. If I were to guess, it could come from if they say "it's going to take longer than we expected to integrate"
Market is awaiting context/guidance
1/
$AMZN is my favorite mega cap tech because they have a physical logistics moat that will NEVER be penetrated. No one can disrupt this. I will stand by this.
It's physical. Not software.
This doesn't even account for AWS lol. Just retail
What's absurd is $GOOGL:
-22 PE, 3-6% growth
-operating margins down from 30% to 25% (didnt post YoY change % in highlights section like they did with revenue)
-highlight is reduction in depreciation ??
-SBC was lower in Q1 so rest of year will be worse
+4% on these results LOL
My first Substack article is live! And it is about my largest position $PUBM
If you have been curious about
@PubMatic
, I suggest giving this a read. It's a good overview and highlights what I think is most important about the investment thesis.
@JoeyMannarinoUS
That's a very solid cut of filet. And 1lb is probably two pieces, not one. That's steakhouse quality filet
Most filet you buy at the grocery store are thin and flimsy
For all my $EVO fintwit peeps
2.7% div yield, 18 PE, 70% EBITDA margins, growing 20%+. US growth just getting started. RNG only makes up 15% of revenues. Live studio is a monster physical moat. They have a dominant 50% market share in a growing industry.
I lost my dad when I was 19. Life was a lot easier when he was around. I've learned to fend for myself.
There's no pain like losing the provider for your household.
Teach your sons and daughters to be strong. Teach them proper values. Treat them with kindness.
Warren Buffett won the game of investing. First to do it imo.
He went from illiquid micro caps to not being able to invest in most companies due to size constraints.
He won. Conquered it all. Nothing left to accomplish. Most complete career from probably anyone in any field.
Days like today I feel validated. I spent the last couple months talking to our community during weekly workshops, sharing research and analyzing financials for $ASPN
We collectively gained conviction. Feels great to nail it in size. My largest position
@LionheartInves1
I think the detriment of deep dives is irrational level of conviction associated with betting bigger. Every new detail is approached with confirmation bias in mind
$COCO went public at the 2021 peak and is +115% since. It's fkn coconut water at 126 PE. Insiders are in the process of exiting their stake (half the shares outstanding)
$TMDX +360% since 10mo ago when I tweeted the thesis
Took balls to say this after 60%+ drawdown.
Look at their results
Exactly as I said it would play out, even better. No one wanted to touch this stock then.
Small cap stocks are my calling.
My thoughts on $TMDX aviation acq
Let's talk about the stock:
The way the stock is trading, I'd say there's one more puke in it. If I were to guess, it could come from if they say "it's going to take longer than we expected to integrate"
Market is awaiting context/guidance
1/
No one in my family taught me stocks. No one encouraged me to invest. My family never had investments. I'm entirely self taught and self-motivated. I'm accountable for my own success.
Can't imagine where I'd be if my parents thought like me. You're lucky if you had this.
@GRomePow
Palm Springs is doing just fine lol I was just there and it was packed on a random weekend
And you can still have airbnbs if neighboring cities
Simple $coin short thesis:
•SEC will require them to delist majority of their coins and halt staking
•they would be left with major cryptos like $btc $eth which is listed on other brokers for lower commissions
•they're already unprofitable, fixed costs stay high but revs⬇️
1/
Added some $SE
Gonna annualize some numbers for a simple valuation:
•$15B EV and profitable.
•$12B sales ~1X sales. 2.5x GP
•$2B adj EBITDA, ~8X (my substitute for CFO)
You'll say 'what about SBC?'
•$330M net income in Q2, $1.2B annualized and increasing imo
~12x earnings?!
Celebrated all of my 10K followers last night (thx to wife). It's good to acknowledge milestones along the way or else what's the point
Thank you all for following along. I hope to continue adding value to you on a daily basis. Let's make 2024 one for the books!📈📈
10 lessons I learned over the last three years in this market:
1) positioning is important to consider. Late investors get crushed. Example: Your thesis could be right, but shorting something down 80% is dangerous especially if short interest is high. Timing is key for shorts.
I am probably one of the only honest accounts actively learning and posting my thoughts/trades in real time. I treat twitter as my investing journal. I said countless times my fundamental ideas are likely spot on but the timing/execution of my trades need improvement. I'm
For anyone curious, I'm basically flat on the year after going +17% in Q1. Basically gave back all my gains. Hurts. But I'll live.
Learned a lot. Timing is hard. Options are hard. Probably easier to be market neutral if bearish vs having to take a position.
We're 1 year deep into a bear market. If you're still here on fintwit interacting with other investors, reading deep dives, and filtering through stocks for opportunities, you deserve recognition.
Great investors are made in tough times, persevering through negative sentiment.
The biggest scam in this country is telling 20 year olds to start saving for retirement a month out of college.
So we're just working to enjoy life in our 60s. Hard pass
A weak dollar is bullish stocks. Especially international stocks
I'm long several companies outside the US
$EVO Sweden
$CPNG South Korea
$AEP.V Canada
$LEAT South Africa
$DUR.AX $MAD.AX Australia
$APR.WA Poland
$SE Singapore
$DESP LatAm (new name coming this week)
I think $amzn is going to be the largest company in the future because it has more staying power than any other mega cap tech.
How many Americans rely on $amzn for their retail at this point? They have a logistics advantage that can't be replicated
$COIN just formally requested the SEC to provide regulatory clarity (left)
Gensler: there's no lack of clarity, just lack of compliance (right), per Bittrex lawsuit PR
They're further aggravating the SEC. Desperately grasping at straws. I think the timeline just sped up.
$ULTA bought back $1B in 2023. They just authorized another $2B in February ($18B market cap). Since, the stock dove 33%, and is at the cheapest valuation in its history (13x EPS). What do you think they're up to?
$TGT just reported strength in beauty. Big loyalty customer base.
$TMDX $96.9M revenue +133% YoY
$12.2M net income! Where are all the haters who said this company will never earn a profit? Aviation will destroy their margins. WHERE ARE YOU NOW
They can GROW PROFITABLY
Bears r ded
$CVS trades at like 0.25x sales...
Balance sheet is meh here. Book price hiding the high goodwill. Lot of debt but positive cash flows so it's mostly fine. Close to a staple so cash flows should be resilient. Good divvy.
anyone thinking of LEAPS here?
Is it me or are the next 10 years of picking winners not as obvious? All these companies had mass consumer scale. Not sure anything in todays economy in growth has as big of a TAM
There will come a year $EVO will be up significantly, then by the time people pay attention they'll say "oh it's too expensive now" or "ah it already ran" or my favorite "wow it was so cheap then, why didn't we buy it"
I'm 30 today. Not sure how to feel. I've been through a lot. I'm happy with how far I've come, and I know there's still so much left in my journey.
Here's to my 30s being prosperous and the best decade yet!
I mistakenly wrote off this company before checking the most recent facts, and lemme tell ya, I wish I paid attention sooner.
$JMIA +57% revenue growth and operating cash flows infecting to positive
$1.1B mcap for largest ecomm name in Africa
$10B+ in 10y. Why not?
My portfolio is up +5.5% today. Please keep trolling me, quote tweeting me, wtv it is you do.
I swing big. I make bold calls. What do you do? Laugh at those who do?
I quit daily coffee and smoking, and started eating healthier. It's insane how much better my body feels. I used to have acid reflux and feel my heart pound daily; now it's silence. I'm sure I'll go through unhealthy phases, but I'm proud of my will power.
Brian Armstrong getting tough with the SEC the same day he dumps stock. Watch actions - not words.
Bittrex planning to fight SEC. Meanwhile, they winded down US operations. Watch actions - not words.
$COIN
When people say "it will be a good buy another 10-20% lower" means it's already a good time to buy
Saw this twice today with $CPNG and $HSY
These are the people that will miss the pitch
Now that the SPAC bubble deflated, there has got to be winners amongst the ruins. Companies went public and raised capital at peak prices - a smart move. What SPAC do you think has the brightest future?
I'll start: $SLGC $NAUT in proteomics. Trade below cash. No position (yet)
I am irresponsibly long $COIN going into the print
Win or lose, I'm transparent
If it doesn't go my way, fortunately my ytd performance can absorb it
But when I see a fat pitch, I swing
$TGT at 16x earnings, 13X next year earnings
15x TTM operational cash flow. And OCF was ~half what it was pre-pandemic. Usually great FCF conversion. Pays a dividend. Idk, seems like a good LEAPS situation. What am I missing? Thieving? We know sentiment is low. That's the point.
If you're bearish, take a second to let go of that bias. Consider the following:
•S&P just made new highs
•CPI & unemployment data is fine
•GDP growth is weak, gives the fed oppty to cut rates and stimulate the economy
•quality names are trading at historically low valuation
When people start calling me names for buying the dip in quality companies down -30% in 1 month on no company specific news and reasonable valuations in a business up cycle, you gotta think we're getting close to a bottom in many names
If I make your day a little better via my posts on twitter, appreciate you letting me know
Lately many things feel negative and I sometimes think 'why bother'
Got enough stress in life to let the bird app be another [parasitic] stressor
Never seen this before - in disbelief. So if I got this right, the new CFO joined the company owning puts on the company. He sold them to rejoin and used the $ to buy shares of the company he was short.
Why not sell before rejoining to avoid the filing? What a mess. $HELE
Clearly I focus on stocks a lot in my life. Big time passion. And if it wasn't for Twitter I'd be annoying the crap out of my friends, so I appreciate y'all for following along and engaging
Twitter's a good outlet and a good way to build a community/relationships.
Everyone's calling for a 2000 style crash meanwhile we had $meta one of the greatest companies on earth down 70% in 2022 and $amzn down 55%
You bozos missed the bottom😂