Logan Hansen
@LogHanRatings
Followers
6K
Following
17K
Media
3K
Statuses
19K
#D3FB digital Ouija board creator I agree, it's a good thing they don't play games on a spreadsheet. Insta/threads/bsky: @hansenratings
Joined April 2015
Wow, just saw this. Something important to remember when you're watching the games this weekend. Keep in mind what, and who, really matters.
5
1
17
National Championship #D3FB #StaggBowl odds after the round of 16:.North Central 75.1%.UW-Whitewater 8.1%.Randolph-Macon 4.8%.Wartburg 4.4%.UW-La Crosse 3.2%.Alma 1.8%.Johns Hopkins 1.5%.Cortland 1.1%.
30
60
326
Which WIAC school is the most cow?. UW-Platteville easily edges out UW-River Falls (the other Ag school in the conference).
6
21
195
Hansen Ratings 2023 Preseason Top 25.Ratings consider 4-year regression of past performance & returning production. #d3fb
10
40
194
Using my early preseason ratings and the 2023 schedules posted on here are the most likely conference champions for each #d3fb conference*. * Except the NESCAC
9
31
190
I probably have a dozen pictures of the Concordia-St. Olaf #d3fb Troll Trophy on my phone, because I download it every time someone asks the question. The answer is always the same!!!
11
14
169
Mock #d3fb playoff bracket using my predictive ratings to simulate the Week 11 games to determine the most likely playoff participants.
15
12
150
Seven #d3fb teams have performed at an elite level (basically, as good as a Top 10 team) in every game so far this season:.Cortland.DePauw.Hardin-Simmons.North Central.St. John's.UW-Platteville.UW-River Falls.
4
16
148
Updated #StaggBowl National Championship Odds.North Central 81%.Wartburg 9%.Randolph-Macon 6%.Cortland 4%. #d3fb.
6
8
141
Preseason Ratings for all 231 #d3fb teams for 2024. These ratings will be updated again in August to account for additional coaching changes and finalized team rosters.
8
27
139
@zillowgonewild This is the poor man's version of my neighbor's house here in Urbandale, IA.
2
1
124
Which conferences are the best in #d3fb?. The WIAC is in a class by itself. The MIAA? No elite teams, the SOS isn't that bad, every team is 3-1 or better. Great: The usual suspects. Good: A bunch of solid top-to-bottom teams. Average: Few great teams, some pretty bad ones
3
21
126
Last night was North Central's closest win of the season, with a margin of victory of 16. No other team in the history of Division III football (since 1973) has won every game by at least 16 points. The previous best was 2015 Mount Union who won every game by 14+. #d3fb.
2
19
122
You one-stop shop for #d3fb team previews is live. ☑️Conference previews.☑️Playoff projections.☑️Team win totals.☑️Team schedule predictions.☑️Opponent-adjusted team ratings.☑️Advanced stats for individual players.☑️Weekly rating for the last 25 years.
14
19
116
#D3FB Championship Odds. North Central 44%.Mount Union 10%.UWRF 10%.UWW 8%.Wartburg 7%.Trinity 4%.HSU 2%.UWO 2%.Linfield 2%.UWP 1%.Aurora 1%.W&J 1%.Wheaton 1%.
15
15
113
The highest rated #d3fb teams of the last 25 seasons (excl 2020). 1. Mt Union 2015.2. UMHB 2021.3. NCC 2022.4. UMHB 2018.5. Mt Union 2012.6. Mt Union 1997.7. Mt Union 2014.8. NCC 2019.9. UST 2015.10. Mt Union 2007.11. Mt Union 2017.12. UWW 2014.13. Mt Union 2002.14. Mt Union 2008.
9
15
111
I'm gonna be a dad. My boy's going to be a rock star. Can't wait to wipe his butt and clean his puke off my pants, or to teach him a double-leg, do a linear regression, play catch, read a book, sack a quarterback, and all the things I can't even think of. @MallyPallyYeah
12
0
110
Most #d3fb seasons, there are about 8-12 undefeated teams. Right now, only 5 teams are more likely than not to go undefeated. North Central.Cortland.DePauw.Springfield.Mount Union.
3
12
110
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams. National Award Winners. Offensive MVP. Kobe Berghammer, UW-Oshkosh. Full release:
2
23
105
Lesson learned from my DC in college:.If you don't want to get held, don't let the blocker hold you.
6
9
102
2023 Hansen Ratings All American Teams. National Players & Coaches of the Year.OMVP: Kaleb Blaha, UWRF.DMVP: Justin Blazek, UWP.STMVP: Cameron Shirangi, Pomona-Pitzer.COTY: Curt Fitzpatrick, Cortland. Full release:.
3
23
96
The WIAC this season is next level. 17-3 non-conference record. The average rating in the conference is +25.3. That is:.A) The best rating since at least 1997.2) Lapping the 2nd best conference (CCIW: +11.6).iii) Further from the CCIW than the CCIW is from the NCAC (-1.4).
4
14
95
Here are my 2019 #D3FB Analytical All American Teams. Offensive MVP: Broc Rutter.Offensive MOP: Ethan Greenfield.Offensive OLMVP: Tyler Norwood.Defensive MVP: Sam Romanski.Defensive DLMVP: Michael Nobile.Special Teams MVP: Cole Westberry
9
37
89
Alma has as many playoff wins the last two seasons as the entire rest of the MIAA had during the entire 32-team era. This is the first time an MIAA team has advanced to the quarterfinals. Last week was the first MIAA playoff win over a top 10 conference ever.
2
16
90
Announcing the 2024 Hansen Ratings All Americans. Offensive MVP: Aaron Syverson - St. John's.Defensive MVP: Durand Hill - Mary Hardin-Baylor.Special Teams MVP: Daniel Cunningham - Denison.Coach of the Year: Sherman Wood - Salisbury. #d3fb.
2
18
94
@statsowar This has me wondering. Is there a "reverse Hawaii" test? Do people on the islands brag about waking up in time to watch College Gameday?.
5
4
87
@NDFootball @Twitter ◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀◻️◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀.◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀🍀◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀.🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀.🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀.🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀.🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀 🍀🍀 🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀.🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀🍀🍀◻️🍀🍀.🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀.🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀.◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀.◻️◻️🍀🍀🍀◻️◻️◻️🍀🍀.
1
3
79
What if. The #d3fb tournament expanded to 40 teams,.We could pay for every flight we wanted,.And the NCAA gave me, Logan Hansen, carte blanche to pick the selection & seeding criteria?. Here's how I would project the field to finish in 2023.
14
5
87
My #d3fb conference coaching staffs of the year, determined according to their average ranks in:.Team Ratings (O, D, overall).Exceeding Expectations (points scored/allowed vs expectation, actual wins vs. preseason).Improvement from Preseason (change in ratings from preseason)
3
10
85
Which 2023 #D3FB QBs did the best job of maximizing good plays (first downs & touchdowns), which minimizing bad plays (sacks & interceptions)?. As was the story with basically any rate stat from 2023, it was Drew Campanale and then everybody else.
5
19
76
It's hard to comprehend that Grover only had 11 tackles. It seemed like there were entire drives where he was in on every play. Clasen played out of his mind. Still my favorite psychopath. Nile was throwing absolute darts for three quarters. Proud of these guys.
Final: No. 1/1 North Central 34, No. 3/3 Wartburg 27. Hunter Clasen: 131 yards, 2 TDs.Nile McLaughlin: 27-49, 234 yards, 2 TDs.Carter Henry: 83 yards.Owen Grover: 11 tackles
6
1
79
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams. Region 4 Awards. OMVP: Braxton Plunk, Mount Union.DMVP: Drake Neuberger, Marietta.STMVP: Jack Drake, DePauw.COTY: Jason Couch, Alma. Full release:
3
23
77
Wanna hear a joke? UD lost these two games by a combined 52 points. And that first clip against UWW, the sack? UD gave up a 27 yard TD on the very next play. 😤.
12
2
76
Early lines for the #d3fb round of 16.SJU (-12.9) vs. Susquehanna .Wartburg (+3.3) vs. Bethel.Cortland (-10.9) vs. Springfield.North Central (-21.7) vs. Hope.Linfield (-11ish) vs. UMHB.DePauw (-13.8) vs. JHU.Salisbury (+0.1) vs. RMC.Mount Union (-9.1) vs. CMU.
10
6
76
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams. Region 5 Awards. OMVP: Will Bowers, QB, Wheaton.DMVP: Alexander Perkins, DL, Millikin.STMVP: Logan Sunvold, K, Central.COTY: Chris Winter, Wartburg. Full release:
1
18
69
Who were the most versatile #d3fb players in 2022?. I looked at 12 individual statistics in the different phases of the game to determine who produced the most in the most ways.
4
8
70
A few weeks ago, @FrankRossi and I had a friendly disagreement about the prospects for PAC schools to get a Pool C bid. He declined my wager, but encouraged me to donate as I see fit. So I've donated the $50 he could have wagered to Imagine, which battles childhood innumeracy.
6
2
68
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams. Region 6 Awards. OMVP: Kobe Berghammer, QB, UW-Oshkosh.DMVP: Justin Blazek, DL, UW-Platteville.STMVP: Owen Tapia, K/P, Chapman.COTY: Derrin Lamker, Augsburg. Full release:
2
18
66
Which #d3fb teams have the easiest & toughest 2023 schedules?.Toughest: WIAC & ASC.Easiest: New England (not NEWMAC) & UMAC
2
8
65
Way too early #d3fb 2023 Top 50. These rankings do not account for lost starters or coaching staff turnover.
3
5
67
Among all the things happening here, my first thought is: I'm glad I'm not #10 in film today. 🍞.
3
6
64
I'll have more analysis later, but for now - here are the results of the model's simulations of the official #d3fb national tournament. North Central not the odds-on favorite, but they're the clear front-runner.
4
11
67
Mock bracket for the #d3fb playoffs, using my predictive ratings to simulate to the end of the season to see which teams are most likely to qualify for the playoffs. I did get confirmation today that the "no conference-rematch" rule will not apply to the 2nd round (round of 32).
6
7
66
2023 Hansen Ratings All American Teams. Freshmen All Americans.Freshman MVP: Matt Jung, Bethel. Full release:.
2
15
58
In Mount Union's worst 3 season stretch of the last 25 years, their average rating was 41.1 ppg above average. Linfield has been the 3rd best #d3fb team in that span. Their best 3 season stretch had a rating of 41.4 ppg above average. We don't appreciate Mt. Union enough.
8
14
60
The WIAC overall was as good as it's ever been, but they didn't have a heavyweight(s) the way they do most years. The 6th place team in the WIAC would compete for a conference title in any conference in the country.
The top teams were down a little, and the middle of the pack was up a little, but that means that yes, when matched against the No. 3 team in the country, or sent to the home field of No. 11, they might not win. And yes, we'll see where teams shake out in 2025 over there. #d3fb.
9
5
64
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams. Region 2 Awards. OMVP: Ryan Stevens, Johns Hopkins.DMVP: Dawson Dietz, Wash. & Jeff. STMVP: Patrick Luby, Cortland.COTY: Peter Gallagher, Ursinus. Full release:
2
17
61
Predictive Ratings heading into the #d3fb national semifinalists. 1. North Central 56.0.2. Mount Union 45.7.3. UMHB 45.0.4. Wartburg 42.5.5. UWL 38.7.6. Bethel 37.2.7. SJU 37.1. The four best teams in the country are the four teams left playing.
3
5
62
National Awards (cont'd). OPOTY: Ethan Greenfield, North Central.OLOTY: Jeske Maples, North Central.OCOTY: Patrick Rotchford, Cortland. LBOTY: Zach Blackiston, Heidelberg.DBOTY: Parker Rochford, Wartburg.DCOTY: Matt Tschetter, Wartburg. Full release:
1
16
59
Odds of advancing to the #d3fb semifinals:.North Central - 96%.Mount Union - 91%.Wartburg - 72%.Mary Hardin-Baylor - 68%.Bethel - 32%.Aurora - 28%.Delaware Valley - 9%.Ithaca - 4%.
1
7
59
I was able to talk to most of the Wartburg coaches after the win yesterday. When asked if he was excited about reaching the semifinals, Defensive Coordinator @Coach_Tschetter said, "Yeah man. It's pretty cool.".
0
5
58
Week 5 #d3fb matchups. I am not a sportsbook. This is not gambling advice. People just really seem to like this format, so I'm going to keep posting it.
4
7
55
The AP released their #d3fb All-American teams. Pretty good stuff, but having Boyes ahead of Lehnen for the first team QB was pretty, pretty surprising.
10
4
54
The best defense in the East? Right now? Going by my ratings (opponent- and recency-adjusted scoring defense), it's actually not Montclair or Brockport, it's @IthacaBomberFB. 1. Ithaca - 7.2.2. Brockport - 9.0.3. Montclair - 10.4.#d3fb @d3football @D3Keith.
3
19
53
If you're a #d3fb guy, and you have pro dreams, this is the sort of RAS you need.
Been very impressed with Cortland WR Cole Burgess. Recently performed at UB’s Pro Day and currently killing it in Cuse 🐉
1
4
52
Consensus 1st Team #D3FB All-Americans (AFCA/AP/D3Football):. Gabe Quigley - DePauw - TE.Sam Pryor - NCC - OG.Dawson Dietz - W&J - DT.Charlie Patterson - HSU - LB.Jordy Tawa - Rochester - CB.Matt Jung - Bethel - S.Tyler Huettel - Trinity TX - PK.AJ Jackson - LFC - RB/RET.
2
10
55
Whitewater didn't play an unranked opponent until darn near Halloween this year. Bama's soft.
Alabama playing at Oklahoma the week before the Iron Bowl is something. It’s a new day.
0
5
52
Most likely #d3fb national champions:.NCC 55%.UMU 27%.UWW 8%.Wartburg 3%.RMC 2%.UWL 2%. Nobody else above 1.5%.
6
10
53
I dare any other division in college football to make a scatter plot with 230 of their teams' logos in it. I'll wait.
6
4
55
Mock bracket for the #d3fb playoffs, using my predictive ratings to simulate to the end of the season to see which teams are most likely to qualify for the playoffs.
11
6
53
The Top 100 #d3fb teams right now, using a composite of 6 different predictive computer models.
8
3
51
I was able to get my hands on the testing results for the WIAC & Wisconsin Private College Pro Day. From highest to lowest, here's each #d3fb prospect's Relative Athletic Score and comparable athletes. For some guys, I ran the numbers at multiple positions.
2
4
50
Based purely on how well they've played this season and how difficult their schedule has been, where should we rank the Top 50 #d3fb teams?
6
6
51
Who were the most versatile defenders in #d3fb in 2022?. I looked at defenders' production in the various aspects of defensive play to see who produced the most in the most ways.
0
12
51
2023 Hansen Ratings All American Teams. OPOY: Brandon Cade, Berry.OL: Jared Thornton, North Central.OC: Caleb Corrill, Mt. St. Joseph. LB: Ben Bladel, Grove City.DB: Parker Rochford, Wartburg.DC: Matthew Popino, Endicott. Full release:.
2
13
49
One great thing about the new #d3fb playoff format - just by virtue of there being fewer games this weekend - some of the great bowl matchups can get more of a spotlight. Three of the top four and five of the top seven games by Game Score this weekend are bowl matchups.
3
8
50
These are the eighteen #d3fb rivalries that have played each season since 1997 with both teams winning thirteen games.
3
4
49
The Birmingham Southern baseball team has officially outlasted Birmingham Southern itself. I know who I'm rooting for.
1
5
49