Wow, just saw this. Something important to remember when you're watching the games this weekend. Keep in mind what, and who, really matters.

Opening segment with @LogHanRatings is some of the best D3 content of the year. Must watch stuff to understand the NPI systems origins, how it could’ve been waaay worse, and common sense ideas to improve it. #d3fb

I have been pretty disheartened by many of the changes to NCAA eligibility rules in the last few years, but allowing G-Leaguers (and to a much larger degree, MiLB baseball players) the opportunity to participate in athletics while they pursue a degree is a great development.

1 wk left in #D3FB regular season. Time to bring in the man behind the math to help explain how NPI works- and thoughts on adjustments that could (should?) be made. Thank you @LogHanRatings for joining the #D3Misfits #D3Voices @NCAADIII @CFBHome

The regular season is quickly coming to an and Logan Hansen joins us in the nosebleeds this week to talk NPI. 📺 https://t.co/6Jsq572rSo 🟢 https://t.co/7FbF1Ipamq #d3voices #d3fb #d3football @d3football @LogHanRatings

Incredibly strange. We're in Week 12...and one college team just decided they aren't going to play their scheduled opponent but are playing someone else instead. Real life. Crazy https://t.co/NwipBWYTRJ

I was able to avoid conference rematches in a lot of cases, but it'll probably cost a little more in terms of travel (due to driving mileage, not flights). Who knows if the committee will have those same preferences? Would also make sense to have Wheaton/NCC play 2nd round.

Wartburg, congrats! You don't have a potential matchup with North Central in the quarters! Please ignore the rest of the bracket, though...

First 4 Out: • Coast Guard • Adrian • Utica • Ohio Northern Changes from a week ago In: • Franklin and Marshall • Grove City • Plymouth State Out: • Baldwin Wallace • Anna Maria • Coast Guard

How this bracket is made: Pool A bids - conference favorites Pool C bids - most likely Pool C teams from the conferences with the highest cumulative Pool C odds W-L/NPI/Rank - average value in simulations in which the team earns a Pool A or Pool C bid

Here's my mock bracket from Week 10, using my season simulations to project the most likely #d3fb playoff teams.

We RTd this 2x from @LogHanRatings in recent weeks, but here's what to root for as a bubble team: 1) your team to win 2) teams ahead of you in NPI to lose 3) your non-con opps to win 4) other bubble teams' non-con opps to lose 5) at-large viable teams to win their AQ #d3fb

Some #d3fb teams need a very narrow scenario to play out while others will be just fine as long as a "disaster scenario" is avoided. Important to set expectations for week 11 based on the wide range of possible outcomes as the season ultimately concludes with one actual outcome.

Best case scenario for bubble teams: Adrian, Muhlenberg, UWW, and Utica lose. A moonshot loss or two from SJU, Salisbury, Wheaton, Grove City, or Hope.

If you're a teams like Ithaca, Augustana, UMHB, or Maryville (i.e. longshots), root for those teams in competitive games to lose and your non-con opps to win.

This is the #d3fb at-large situation right now. UWP, Trinity, and JHU/F&M loser are in even with a loss. DePauw/Wabash winner is a lock Central (lock)/Coe (likely) winner At-large teams in competitive games: Adrian (Alma) Muhlenberg (Dickinson) UWW (UWO) Utica (Brockport)

The only other team that would be "on the bubble" with a loss this weekend would be UWW, who would have around a 25-30% shot. Other teams, such as Central or Hardin-Simmons, would have less than a 1% chance if they lose (and UMHB wins).

Teams who "have a loss to give" - they don't have an AQ and would still be at least 90% likely to make the #d3fb playoff even if they lose this weekend: - JHU (100%) - Trinity (TX) (98%) - UW-Platteville (96%) - Franklin and Marshall (94%)

Simulations and "What if" app are updated. There are 13 teams in a pure win or go home game this weekend, and 3 more that are in >95% leverage games. Let's go! #d3fb https://t.co/538GGcwtn1

Get your bookmarks ready! We will be running live #d3fb NPI updates as games go final to give everyone a look at how the playoff picture is developing throughout Week 11. Track the race for at-large bids and overall seeding here: https://t.co/GzrqjKO9C1

Hope (if Adrian beats Alma, Hope gets the AQ, and the Alma/Adrian wouldn't get at-larges) It doesn't matter in terms of at-large bids who wins the SCIAC or UMAC - the runners up there will not get at-large bids.