Leroy Groffier
@LeroyGroffier
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Down there's the road
Geneva
Joined March 2017
Resurgence in NAND market (driven by latency in AI inference) is reminiscent of early 2017 mid-cycle CSP demand spike. Feels bad to chase it, but it's not going away.
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$TJX is such a good operator. 5% SSSG and beat mgn guidance by 100bps. Hard times call for cheap men!!
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Epic treatment, just need some backers
The Wire Returns – Season 6: “The Bridge” 20 years after the unit disbanded, Baltimore is a city of ghosts and algorithms. The port is bigger than ever, but the docks are quiet; robots and drones do most of the work. Fentanyl has replaced heroin as the city’s slow-motion
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$BIDU $9888 Q3 typical Baidu shitshow, earnings "beat" but -7% yoy rev gr and -33% EPS gr with the usual impairments. Analysts loved the first-time "AI" segmental disclosure showing CNY10bn rev (+50%) in Q3 but suspect this, too, is bullshit. Stock trading flat tells the story.
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XIAOMI $1810 weak reaction to what is technically an earnings beat: concerns about memory prices eating into handset margins, esp given mgmt prioritization of mkt share gain. EVs and appliances likely slowing ex subsidies
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PINKFONG $403850 IPO rather damp squib. Not sure how an IP business (with massive popularity) fails to make money, but they seem to have figured out how. Gapped up (from 38K IPO px) +60% at one pt to close +9%, not very promising.
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LENOVO $992 the hits keep coming, Nomura highlighting not only memory prices, but CPU prices rising, CPU supplies constrained, PC margins & volumes to be squeezed in 2026.
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LENOVO $992 MS dg after underperforming for a bit. Numbers haven't rolled over yet and it is hitting support, but eventually it should head even lower. Patience is key with these consensus, fundamental shorts.
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China property prices not recovering, still trending down with FDI and fixed asset investment.
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YOKOHAMA RUBBER $5101 JP quietly delivering strong FQ2 numbers against low expectations. OP +34% YoY and positive reaction to this and other tire co earnings (e.g., Bridgestone, Sumitomo) suggests positioning is light.
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EBARA $6361 beat and raise, but down low teens on the day due to downward guide on SPE segment (China & memory), which is a positive memory price readacross, if anything. May see a recovery in this one.
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RESONAC $4004 JP a rare positive earnings reaction as semi backend materials inc CCL leads to a beat and raise.
RESONAC 4004 JP momentum building: Nomura upgrades to top pick in semiconductor materials, sees upside in commodity as well as AI semi materials, turnaround in graphite electrode business.
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XPENG $9868 $XPEV stock hanging in there despite value rotation, earnings on 17 NOV. Analyst day delivered on humanoid robot hype with IRON robot demo and claims of "full stack" physical AI offering. Taking Xiaomi's mantle as EV/robot proxy?
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Chinese pension funds rumored to cap "growth" holdings at 10%, seeing heavy rotation to value in market. https://t.co/rYwiEnZ6DJ
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CHALCO $2600 HK good action on volume as anti-involution remains the most reliable apolitical theme in China.
2600 HK CHALCO: stock back to Sep '17 and Sep '21 levels. On a 4 yr sentiment cycle? Maybe, but earnings, leverage, and FCF are in a muuuuch better place vs. years past. 10% FCF yield, 4% div yield and improving mgns by increasing bauxite self-sufficiency from 60% to 100%
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SHAWN KIM (MS) on DRAM/NAND: don't be a pussyboy (HYNIX, SAMMY, $SNDK, $MU, $285A)
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9 out of the last 10 shutdowns have seen the S&P 500 higher over the next 3M, with the last shutdown in 18/19 followed by a 10% 3M rally once it ended. (Matt Garman, MS Alpha)
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