RT @tradewartracker: a lot going on:. 1) big clean up of my github repo. now clean datasets (cross-country tariff and daily tariff) that ot….

RT @AmSantacreu: In our paper, we explore how trade patterns are shifting in response to geopolitical tensions and strategic competition—hi….

RT @AmSantacreu: Wrapped up an incredible experience at the #ECBForum, where I had the opportunity to present our paper and engage in stimu….

RT @albertocavallo: We just updated our tariff paper. We now assign products to precise HS-10 codes—replacing the older COICOP-HS mapping—a….

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The U.S. appears to have an advantage here: Federal taxes and programs mean that when one region takes off, others still benefit. Not perfect, but enough to make geographic concentration politically viable in a way that’s much harder in the EU?.

Instead of building one or two strong hubs, projects appear to get split up so every country gets a share—even if that means less scale, less impact. Presumably because the EU doesn’t have strong ways to share the gains from concentration. If one country hosts a major industry.

Interesting article by @lugaricano on Europe’s approach to AI infrastructure. Points to broader EU issue: in sectors where scale and concentration matter (like AI, manufacturing, defense, energy), the economics favor clustering. But politics often push toward spreading things

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Nearly half of firms reported a decline in profits. Many were uncertain how much of their cost increase came from tariffs, and expectations for future tariff levels were mixed. The findings illustrate how tariff shocks translate into real operational and pricing decisions.

2. Businesses have adjusted to higher tariffs in multiple ways. Adjustments included shifting to more domestic inputs, changing inventory levels, reducing investment (especially in services), and modest cuts to employment. Price increases extended beyond tariffed goods

2. Tariff-induced price increases happened quickly. More than half of firms raised prices within a month of experiencing higher input costs. Many did so within a week or even a day

1. Most businesses passed through some or all of the tariffs. About 75 percent of affected firms raised prices. Roughly one-third of manufacturers and 45 percent of service firms passed through the full cost increase. Around one-quarter absorbed the entire increase without

How are firms responding to higher U.S. import tariffs?. NY Fed surveyed businesses in the NY/NJ region between May 2 and May 9, 2025—just before the rollback of some China tariffs. The results offer a snapshot of how firms were adjusting at that time

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And particularly across US-China routes 👇

🚢Shipping pressures are back up 👇

RT @mattkahn1966: A very interesting thread. This "O-Ring" style literature on production bottlenecks interests me and poses a challenge f….

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They also show that these dynamics survive aggregation: delayed sectoral adjustments lead to persistent fluctuations in GDP, even without additional frictions. A nice example of how production timing can shape macro outcomes!.