Lacabra Capital
@Lacabra_Capital
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Macro Investing, Crypto, AI, Bitcoin Miners
Pure Alpha
Joined December 2017
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$BTBT AI - Analysis & Valuation
TLDR: BTBT is being valued as a 3 EH/s miner with ~100m HODL, with little to no valuation being assigned to the new AI business.
In January, BTBT launched an AI business with a large anchor customer (name not disclosed), contracted for $50M/yr
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What's with all the $IREN panic? I'll take the extra EH/s and wait for
#Bitcoin
to rip. Going up 10-15x with or w/o dillution.
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I guess
#Bitcoin
miners not buying the run today with red nearly across the board - $MARA $RIOT $IREN $WULF etc.
But $BTBT? This I don’t get - they have a solid ETH HODL, where there’s been a much more convincing 7.5% rally today, AND an AI vertical. The market seems to put them
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Key Points From $BTBT Earnings Call
The biggest takeaway is the focus on vertically integrated HPC, discussing ownership of the infrastructure (Buy, not build) -> Even Fatter Margins
---
1. Anchor Client is doubling its contract for an additional 2,048 GPUs, totaling $100
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@RetirementRight
Showing symptoms of late stage BDS (Bitcoin derangement syndrome) get well soon brother 🙏🏻
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@carlquintanilla
So everyone’s rich but… credit card debt and delinquency is at all time highs? Not to mentioned, retirement account are being tapped at alarming rates.
All very good signs of a very strong consumer …
🤨🤨🤨
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$IREN growth is crazy. Childress will continue to be the differentiator. 20 eh/s expansion fully funded. Should be a fun week of trading.
#BULLISH
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Samir shared that BTBT AI margins are much higher than bitcoin mining, even pre halving, and the market hasnt given them any credit for this.
IMO $IREN and $BTBT are two very overlooked mining/AI compute names with real growth potential
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Great analysis
@sebastian_ski
Important for people to keep in mind that this is highly variable (difference in assumptions) and we are going to see a lot of change in the coming months with miners like $CIFR $IREN (+others) starting to ramp their hash in 2H 2024.
Might mess
EDIT: Post Halving!
Calculated breakeven BTC price for mining companies based on last reported quarterly fillings. This is only for self mining, does not include other business segments, joint ventures, staking, etc... Those companies that have multiple business segments, I used
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Thank you to
@omnipotent32
from
@GryphonMining
for spending some time with us today, and all the other great speakers who joined us! $GRYP
One thing that resonated with me was Rob’s trigger discipline when thinking about M&A. A refreshing stance in this space that seems to be
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On point as always
@Charge_Stack
$IREN $BTBT $CIFR $WULF are my favorites of the bunch but all good picks.
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@mikealfred
Yep. Poor choices by the Biden admin, has become a non-starter for people who value these things
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$BTBT First Quarter 2024 Financial Results - Info below 👇
Earnings Release: Wednesday, May 15, 2024 (Post Close)
LINK -
Earnings Call: Thursday, May 16, 2024, at 10am ET
LINK -
Overall, really pumped about the earnings. Excited
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Hit the links today with some fresh threads from $CLSK
When are we getting merch for $IREN $CIFR $BTBT?
Gotta rock the whole portfolio
@danroberts0101
@rftylerpage
@SamirTabar
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@RetirementRight
You’re a complete joke man. I gained temporary respect for you when you seemingly flipped but it’s clear you never understood what you owned
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$BTBT Awesome panel and speakers - hopefully we can tune in virtually.
On the day of their ER too.. what a day
We're excited to join The Impact of AI Technology on the Future of the Industry at
@conf3rence
on May 15th! The panel is set with some of the brightest minds in the industry:
Ralph De Wargny - Global Director of
@Intel
Liftoff
Sam Tabar - Chief Executive Officer
@BitDigital_BTBT
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Maybe we are all doing this wrong investing in $CIFR $IREN $RIOT $WULF $MARA $CLSK etc. These comp packages are frothy!
Instead, we take the most brilliant minds of
#bitcoin
twitter and form a miner of our own...
Positions TBD, but think we can all agree on the below:
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@mikealfred
@GoingParabolic
I thought his name was Jung? And he placed second in the math competition
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Still waiting for the market to price in $BTBT AI revs/margins
March 2024 Production Report
🟢 136.4
#Bitcoin
mined (+6%)
🟢 Active hash rate of ~2.76 EH/s
🟢 BTC treasury holdings: 956.6
🟢 ETH treasury holdings: 16,032.0
🟢 AI revenue earned: $4.3 million
🔗 Read the full report:
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@Charge_Stack
@BitDigital_BTBT
@SamirTabar
Thanks for coming! Great to hear from Sam and Cam on strategy.
Such a misunderstood company - looking forward to $BTBT earnings. Expect the market will start to wake up to the AI business potential soon
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@SamirTabar
Great report - and just getting started. Market has been asleep at the wheel on $BTBT, excited to see it play out
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@theBTCMiningGuy
My largest currently as well. BTBT recently leaped from a small position into second largest behind IREN
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@SamirTabar
@theBTCMiningGuy
People should do some DD on $BTBT - really solid place to build a position during this cycle. ~300mm mcap with 100mm in contract ai revenue + hodl. Literally trading at cash value…
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It all makes sense now… the last solar eclipse was 10/14/23 - Miners were up following this.
Clearly institutions have front-run the price action and today is a sell the news event
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@Rex_Finance
They are hiring a head of revenue for HPC (not full team buildout). Currently, no one owns the HPC and AI segment, so having someone in the company dedicated to all things HPC seems to make sense.
They alluded to it on the call of potentially acquiring infrastructure in which
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This whole interview has made me even more bullish on $IREN. Dan is sharp.
$IREN Dan explains how vertical integration, the ownership of land, buildings, grid connections, power access, the development of specialized power dense data centers, differentiate IREN from most other miners & AI Cloud service providers
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@Charge_Stack
@Futur3_Th1nk3r
@theBTCMiningGuy
@SamirTabar
Post earnings would be sweet, so they can go open kimono. They speak in parables about margins and customers rn
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$BTDR So to summarize - no HPC/AI business yet. No client announcement or revs.
This is what we call an aspiration, not a business.
If you want AI/HPC exposure, check out $BTBT
@BitDigital_BTBT
or $IREN
@irisenergyco
. They actually have AI businesses.
$BTDR
@Bitdeer
HPC/AI update from Q1 Report:
“In the meantime, we continue to develop our AI cloud service. The significant interest we are observing in the space reaffirms our confidence in its potential for growth. In terms of our infrastructure, construction of our Jigmeling
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For anyone interested in HPC/AI - this should be a good one!
Some great speakers:
@SamirTabar
from
@BitDigital_BTBT
@bigsuey
from
@Hut8Corp
Thanks to
@Charge_Stack
and
@Futur3_Th1nk3r
for hosting, looking forward to it.
$BTBT $HUT
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@Umbisam
I remember hearing this live on the call - definitely put me off. He had this air of confidence as if he didn’t need to explain their timelines to analysts. Hubris
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Hosting a Space on 4/18 4pm ET with $BTBT CEO
@SamirTabar
Would love to see the
#MiningMafia
show out! If you have any questions you want to ask Sam, feel free to comment here or DM me so we can include them.
Should be a fun time 😁
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If I were to own a farm, I may be compelled to exchange it for $BTBT shares. It seems we're echoing a historical pattern akin to Beethoven's journey—initially misunderstood, yet evolving into a musical genius. Only time will unveil the parallels :)
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Nicely done
@BertrimFin
Efficiency is key. At some point the market will shift to valuing efficiency and unit economics rather than growth at all costs.
Expect $CIFR and $WULF especially to stand out in that regard once this happens.
Similarly - misunderstood business models
Miner Fleet Efficiency (J/TH)
April 9, 2024.
Hello, I hope you're having a great night. Below, I've compiled the fleet efficiency for 13 miners. If you have any questions, feel free to send me a message or comment below.
If you find this data useful, please retweet/follow/like.
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@theBTCMiningGuy
Flight just landed. Bitcoin mining stock talk is the best in-flight entertainment around - pure alpha
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@Umbisam
@theBTCMiningGuy
let’s get this figured out for Umbi, smart guy not sure why he’s had trouble joining
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@Charge_Stack
I think most people would’ve loved solidified plans and new customer contracts, but glad to see they are building the foundation. This was just a taste, next quarter and beyond will be the prime beef
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@SCurveCapital
I totally agree. It’s an unneeded layer of complexity - the story gets murky because you are in HPC and BTC mining with an ETH flywheel.
I suspect they simplify over time as AI business segment starts taking off, the juice won’t be worth the squeeze when they have 5+ customers
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Funny how the $MARA Mafia starts attacking other miners after being up 8% in one day… wouldn’t be celebrating finding a nickel in the sofa. Still down 30% MTD
Way better risk-adjusted returns for $CIFR $IREN $WULF imo. Bet on the right greyhound, you’ll be rewarded!
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@AustinHotaling
@Name_Is_Paul
Total operating & under construction is 510mw with an additonal 1,650mw in the pipeline (majority in 2026). Curious what % will be allocated to HPC. Assume demand willd drive that. Pretty sweet for $IREN though
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@dotkrueger
Fred - wouldn’t you say that there is still a psychological effect of the halving causing demand to increase? So although the reduced supply is not a massive driver, it’s still an important event in that there are more people paying attention and greater adoption?
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@RetirementRight
Has to break through Segundese resistance first .. but if that happens possible
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Great updates from $IREN and $WULF to start the week.
#Bitcoin
back above 70 as well - feels like a green week 🙂
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Forget Israel and Iran, I’m watching
@theBTCMiningGuy
vs
@RetirementRight
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@McMimck
@SamirTabar
@BitDigital_BTBT
You will pay more for $1 of SaaS revenue because the customer is more valuable vs. selling a widget and acquiring through ad spend. That’s why I love BTBT AI business segment.
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Easy:
25% $CIFR
25% $IREN
25% $WULF
25% $BTBT
Methodical, risk-adjusted portfolio imo
What’s the best IRA mix for someone in their 20’s or 30’s that wants to set it and forget it?
To keep it simple, I’d say something like this:
40% $VOO
40% $QQQM
20% $SCHD
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Have been buying every dip on $CIFR $WULF and $IREN lately.
Enjoying the run for $CIFR and $WULF today - adding more to $IREN.
My bet is weakness in $IREN is due to the ATM ramping, this one will shoot up soon too. Way too cheap to ignore.
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@Charge_Stack
@BitDigital_BTBT
Thank you counsel. Going to do a deep dive post earnings of the competitive landscape. Should be fun to see where everyone is at post Q1. To HPC or not to HPC 🧐
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@ALLABTDOTS
@AustinHotaling
@elveton101
Everyone’s trying to “build” out HPC because they want to ride the hype train. Very few are positioned to even do so, even less actually will.
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Hope none of you lettuce handed the dip $CIFR $IREN $WULF $BTBT $RIOT $MARA
We go moon now
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@Charge_Stack
@BitDigital_BTBT
Samir is a dog and $BTBT is doing some great stuff. Will be an interesting track this cycle - I’m sized accordingly.
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@WallStreetApes
It’s a private equity shop not a Hedgefund and go take an in depth dive on what an LBO is. This isn’t a new concept bro bro, PE shops have been doing this for years to lever up companies and use it to pay their interest then sell it off for 5x MOIC
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@ChardonnayBoger
Any concern about mgmt transition / Paraguay operations. Less so their direct implications, more so they are closed kimono on everything rn
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Interesting hearing from
@SamirTabar
on the Bitcoin miner space today (thanks
@theBTCMiningGuy
) regarding
#Bitcoin
Miners and
#AI
Data Centers. I had the opportunity to ask him about how he’s thinking about this narrative:
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@theBTCMiningGuy
Careful.. word on the street is BMG is about to tap a fat ATM after the large inflows
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@BTCStocksInvest
I was just kidding, I don't have a position in them. But always looking for HPC data points!
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@StockMKTNewz
The first meat scoop and then asking for double hack will soon be gone. Will be worse than golf cart technology locking up in random places
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@RetirementRight
My pet fish could’ve priced a better option, make sense why you sold mr. lettuce hands
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@Rex_Finance
Re the $BTBT AI business and margin conversation on
@theBTCMiningGuy
space - I did some work here if you want to take a look
$BTBT AI - Analysis & Valuation
TLDR: BTBT is being valued as a 3 EH/s miner with ~100m HODL, with little to no valuation being assigned to the new AI business.
In January, BTBT launched an AI business with a large anchor customer (name not disclosed), contracted for $50M/yr
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@RetirementRight
At least our community is cool. Go hang with
@theRealKiyosaki
or
@PeterSchiff
and report back. Think I’ll take
@mikealfred
as el patron vs. your head ass gold crew
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@CK_Cryptoklepto
@sebastian_ski
Put away the tin hat, market is rewarding good operations. When $MARA can run their machines, I’d expect sentiment to change. Otherwise, keep drinking the Kool-Aid and blaming “paid” analysts.
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@jimbobmcflam
@Charge_Stack
@BitDigital_BTBT
@SamirTabar
Mid May was mentioned on the call - but no date confirmed yet
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Hosting a Space on 4/18 4pm ET with $BTBT CEO
@SamirTabar
Would love to see the
#MiningMafia
show out! If you have any questions you want to ask Sam, feel free to comment here or DM me so we can include them.
Should be a fun time 😁
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@Umbisam
@theBTCMiningGuy
Weird take, it’s a community of people who care about the same companies you do - that’s why it exists. Would like to get this sorted for you so you can interact with people though
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@Charge_Stack
@bigsuey
@Hut8Corp
@Futur3_Th1nk3r
To note: saw they "sunsetted unprofitable products" but still curious what they bought that was so bad.
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@FransBakker9812
like I said in the footnote this is just to get dialogue going. I’m sure most of their marketing and admin expenses are fixed not variable. But fuck me if I know what those are and how much.
Also the revenue is doubling from $50m to $100m so pretty significant to keep in mind
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Lot of chatter on here about the $CLSK ATM and timing given insider sales.
My two sats - let’s wait and see if an announcement follows before we jump to conclusions.
Totally agree this SEEMS poorly handled - but we just don’t know how this plays out yet. The short term traders
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