Ken Fisher
@KennethLFisher
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Self-Made Multi-Billionaire, Global Investor, Father of P/S Ratio, NYT Bestseller, Market Guru, Financial Columnist and Tree Nut.
Dallas, Texas
Joined January 2017
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Rather than ask, “Why buy stocks?” Ask: “Are there any reasons not to buy stocks?” Without a reason to be bearish, being bullish is usually the right call.
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If COVID-19 dies with the normal flu season, highly possible but not certain, stocks will be at all-time highs faster than anyone believes.
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Italian COVID deaths/day are flat over the last four days and lower than three days ago. No one notices. Similarly, French deaths spiked today but otherwise look stable since 3/18. The UK too. Check the data not the yak yak.
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Quote for the day: “I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them” – Hetty Green
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Another from Will Rogers: “Too many people spend money they haven't earned to buy things they don't want to impress people they don't like.”
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When everything seems to be going against you remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it—Henry Ford
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@ohmahahm
리트윗, 댓글, 팔로우 해주셔서 정말 감사합니다. 내가 조선 조폐국에서 한국어로 정기적으로 칼럼을 쓰는 것을 알아주셨으면 합니다. 다시 한번, 감사합니다.
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Quote for the day: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.“—Warren Buffett
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Here is world stock market performance following each cycle’s first Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Obviously, this should scare the bejabbers out of…..somebody. 🙂
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Without risk, you can’t get growth. And without growth, your portfolio can be ravaged overtime by withdrawals and inflation.
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Most folks equate wealth with having money. Wrong. Wealthy folks usually hold a tiny percent of their wealth in money. Money is only good to buy stuff. Wealthy folks spent it if they ever had it on quality or appreciating wealth. Money is a waste.
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Quote for the Day: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”—Warren Buffett
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Quote for the Day: “The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity. The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery.” Winston Churchill
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John Templeton, a hero of mine, said, “No one can be a success in life watching two hours of TV a day or more.” Makes me glad I listened to him.
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You should like stocks a lot right now. I don’t know if you’ll like them more or less in a few weeks. But, a la the legendary line from Buffett, this is a time to be greedy, not fearful.
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I’m so pleased and flattered to have crossed the 300,000 followers line. What an honor. Makes it worthwhile.
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Quote for the Day: “Never, tell anyone about your problems, 90% of the people really don’t care. The other 10% are glad you have them.” Charlie Munger.
I stole this quote from Chris Brice of Potter Bell Securities in NYC.
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Quote for the day: “Success is the ability to go from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”—Winston Churchill
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Quote for the day: “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”—Ben Graham
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One of my favorite Templeton quotes: Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. My spin on it: Bear markets are born on euphoria, grow on grinding economics, mature on recession and die on panic.
#WednesdayWisdom
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A lie gets halfway around the world before truth has a
chance to get its pants on -- Winston Churchill.
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Twitter Quote of the Day: "Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful."--Albert Schweitzer
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The stock market is an efficient discounter of all widely known information. If you can easily find something online, in print, on TV, anywhere in our 24/7 news cycle – that news is likely already largely reflected in current stock prices.
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Fear is a reaction. Courage is a decision. -- Winston Churchill.
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U.S. growth rate clearly way past exponential and markedly arithmetic. Follow the data, not the media headlines. Headlines want to be scarier as can be.
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It is always a bullish factor when people are afraid of stocks because of high P/Es. The fear is in the market already. It’s when there is no fear you should be fearful.
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You may feel like stocks are volatile. And you’re right. But history shows us they become less so if you can think longer term. If you do that, your relative performance likely improves over time. Don’t forget that lesson.
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The aftermath soon after drops this steep are always a V-shaped response. It almost doesn’t matter how much it drops from here in the short term. A batter doesn’t swing on an 0-3 count unless he is over arrogant. 2019 will soon be great. When? Don’t know but soon.
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Quote for the day: “Any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke” – J.P. Morgan
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Quote for the Day: “When you feel like bragging about a stock it is probably time to sell.” – John Neff
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Great unattributed quote today from Chris Brice of Bell Potter Securities down under: “Dear optimist, pessimist and realist, while you were busy arguing about the glass of water, I drank it. Sincerely, The opportunist”
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Quote for the day: “Life would be infinitely happier if we could only be born at the age of 80 and gradually approach 18.”—Mark Twain
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Many sentiment indicators are near levels similar to the end of recent bears. While there are negatives in the world today, fundamentals are better than many appreciate. (1/2)
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History is a terrific tool to help you see the world a bit more clearly.
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For weeks media has said Sweden & it’s no lockdown & almost 100% voluntary actions would backfire. It hasn’t. It’s curve flattened. Yet few study them for even partial clues for success. If herd immunity can be built, they must be far faster than elsewhere.
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Can’t you just feel the falling market making people who were more optimistic become more pessimistic. Rationality would argue for lower prices making people even more optimistic.
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A big up day means no more than a big down day and shouldn’t be taken any more seriously. Even a few weeks don’t necessarily mean a thing.
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Quote for the day: “The fact that other people agree or disagree with you makes you neither right or wrong. You will be right if your facts and reasoning are correct.”— Ben Graham
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If you don’t believe in the power of Capitalism, that’s fine – you don’t have to – it believes in you.
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Panic may or may not return. But selling into panic is always wrong looking 6-24 months out as I said here March 13th. Circumstances change but stock markets don’t in their most basic of functions.
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Quote for the day: “Success is when you get what you want. Happiness is when you want what you get .”— Source unknown
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Think about investing as a science. In science, you develop a hypothesis, test, confirm, and retest-continuously. It’s a non-stop query session. While investors don’t have a traditional lab, they do have history. History is the investors’ lab.
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Today’s action may be reflective of the shorts being squeezed yesterday followed by most of the 2 & 20 liquidators completing today, then the rebound. If so, the right side of the V should start almost immediately with the New Year.
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When investing keep asking yourself: What is my brain doing to blindside me now?
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Overall we have Europe’s first material day of decreased new cases. Yet no one notices. Whether it sustains or not, regardless, that is another bullish sentiment sign, that folks aren’t looking for it:
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People regularly ask what can go wrong but almost never ask what could positively surprise.
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Remember, the idea is NOT to buy low and sell whenever stock prices have you freaking out.
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When I was a kid the stock market was open Saturday AMs. It might be better now if it was only open 3-4 days a week. What do you think?
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Quote for the day: “Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.”—Thomas Jefferson
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While having no clue on pricing Monday or next week or three weeks from now, panic volatility tells you of higher prices 6, 12 and 18 months ahead, details aside.
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If the Russians could actually do what the magic they’re alleged to have in 2016 in any real way…..why haven’t they succeeded at virtually anything else in the last 40 years?
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Quote for the Day: “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists” Benjamin Graham -- Thanks to Chris Brice of Bell Potter Securities.
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Quote for the Day: “Never promote a man who hasn’t made some bad mistakes because you would be promoting someone who hasn’t anything worthwhile.”—Herbert H. Dow
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Quote for the day: “I have learned to seek my happiness by limiting my desires, rather than attempting to satisfy them.” —John Stuart Mill
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Anyone can see what a stock has done. What we want to know is what a stock will do. But no one can. We can’t because despite what someone may have told you, no amount of charting tells us anything about what a stock will do other than the random occasion of unexpected luck.
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Quote for the day: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." - Nathan Rothschild
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Quote of the Day: “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”—Peter Lynch
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You make more money sitting on your hands than dancing in their shrieks. This is classic correction action. Bull markets die with a whimper, not with a bang.
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Wait! I thought rising rates we’re supposed to hurt tech stocks. What happened? LOL.
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Volatility is your friend, it’s not your enemy if you use it correctly.
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Quote for the Day: “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”—Robert Arnott
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You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it—Margaret Thatcher
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Emotions make passive investing near impossible for most folks. You need nerves of steel and ice water in your veins… Or a sensory deprivation chamber to isolate you from every last bit of financial news.
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Same as yesterday with one more data point, new Italian daily tests. Note, as new daily tests soar, new daily cases aren’t. That’s a hopeful point media misses. New cases are actually down today.
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Reminder - If you react emotionally to market movement, you’re jeopardizing your future.
#WednesdayWisdom
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"Millions saw the apple fall but Newton was the one to ask why." - Bernard Baruch
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People think the “Trump Rally” is yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge, but it ain’t so big (H/T: Bloomberg)
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So sorry to hear today of Jack Bogle passing. Great guy. Great wisdom. Great contribution to the world. An original. A real loss. He will be missed less than most because he will stay with us so long.
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Remember: the global yield curve is a more useful leading indicator for stocks and the global economy than any single country’s curve.
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Lots of chatter today about backward-looking GDP. Markets look forward. So whether we are in a recession or not, remember: bull markets almost always begin before a recession ends. Stocks pre-price conditions. They don’t wait for data to confirm.
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Can’t prove it but it sure behaves like this is hundreds of institutions, like hedge funds, forcing liquidation by yearend or preparing for early January redemptions. I’ve never quite seen a December like this but the closest were bear market bottoms or forced liquidations.
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Quote for the day: “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.” Milton Friedman
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Falling victim to your emotions doesn’t make you a bad person - just human. If you can control your emotions, it can make you a better investor.
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What do you think the effect on markets is when Russia finally gives up on its failing Ukraine war effort? When do you think that is? Or will it end otherwise?
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We’re halfway through January. Did you make any financial New Year’s Resolutions? What were they? How are they coming along?
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The S&P 500 closed at 269 today. The bottom was 12/24, 37 days ago. 37 days before was Sat, Nov 17th when it was at 273--then Monday at 269. That’s the V I was preaching here starting with posts Dec 21st. Never forget how the V works after big-scary-steep declines.
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Great quote sent to me from Chris Brice of Austrialia’s Bell Potter Securities: Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” - Thomas Edison
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2018 has confirmed my confirmation bias that it was a good idea for me to never go into politics.
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Quote for the Day: “Victory is sweetest when you’ve known defeat.“ Malcom S. Forbes
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Quote for the day: “The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, you’re still a rat.”—Lily Tomlin
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Today my father would be 111 were he alive. People ask for photos of him but there were so few. Being the Asperger-ish guy he was he was very, very shy and hence also camera shy. He was…
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WARNING: If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
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Quote for the day: “One absolute requirement of a money manager is emotional maturity. If you don’t know who you are the stock market is an expensive place to find out.”—Adam Smith
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Another cheap trick I love: medium sized binder clip for cash, credit cards, DL, health insurance and the ilk--instead of wallet or money clip. Lighter, more functional, costs nothing. What are your cheap tricks?
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Quote for the day: “If you think you’re cool; you’re a fool. If you think you’re wise; it’s all lies. If you act all snarky; you’re spouting malarkey. If you’re pointing fingers; you’ll get skewered by zingers. If you think you’re smartest; meet the market.”—Ken Fisher
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Retirement Tip: Exercise more & eat better. Once you’re retired, you have time to exercise during the best weather the day has to offer. And you can spend more time on menu planning & preparation of meals. Both will help you enjoy and extend your retirement years.
#RetirementTip
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In investing (just like life) beware of overconfidence. Can lead to serious errors.
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Great quote sent by Chris Brice of Bell Potter: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves” Peter Lynch
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I love European trains. Arrived last night, Zurich from Milan. 3 hours, easy peasy, eat, work, watch. City center to same. Beats air to heck.
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Quote for the day: “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.” Daryl Huff, from How to Lie With Statistics
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If you aren’t sure your reason to trade is correct or you’re in possession of unique-or uniquely framed-information, then you may be overconfident. Sometimes being passive is the most active and appropriate thing to do. Don’t trade just to trade. Practice Humility.
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For those of you liking to guess hotels and cities, the view from my room the last two nights. What city? What hotel?
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Quote for the day: “There is nothing so stupid as an educated man, if you get him off the thing he was educated in.”—Will Rogers
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If you care at all, I still think this is all cud chewing correction sentiment before a pretty good up-move, maybe not until next year. I never have short-term views.
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Never forget what Sir John Templeton famously said, “The four most expensive words in the English language are, ‘This time, it’s different.’”
#WednesdayWisdom
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Capital markets are resilient because humanity is resilient. Those who’ve bet against that have been proven wrong, time and again.
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If you pursue capital preservation as a goal, after 20 years, you likely have your starting value and not much more. Anyone selling you capital preservation and growth as a single, combined goal either doesn’t know much about finance theory or is trying to fool you. Both bad.
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